Supreme Novices 2018

[BigChaang]

Does anyone know what is happening with Dortmund Park.
Took some 40's available earlier in the season, but now priced up for the Bumper...

I intend to leave this alone until NRNB - although remind me of this in a few weeks - when I've gone all in on the next "best thing"

I have small amounts remaining on:
Sayar, Epicuris, Dortmund Park & Claimantakinforgan.

Plus "Any Race" novices:
Red Jack, Samcro, Pym, Slate House, Ravenhill Road, If The Cap Fits, White Moon and On The Blind Side
(Most of which will go up in trip)
Mostly done with Free Bets, so one winner - should easily cover me.

Another reason not to go in again just yet!

Pretty sure someone on F.J posted that dortmund park was priced up in the bumper but not likely to run there ??

 

[Hurricane fly]

Dortmund Park is available at 160.0 for the supreme but only 21.0 for the bumper

Must be a bit of a pointer?

 

[Scooby91]

Dortmund Park is available at 160.0 for the supreme but only 21.0 for the bumper

Must be a bit of a pointer?

The pointer of nobody has any clue until he has an entry. If he goes for a big bumper would be more likely punchestown.

Mengli khan was a bigger price than that a month ago.

 

[finch]

This is going to be such a flippant comment, but I couldn't back a jonjo hurdler with free bets. The man is the most over-rated trainer in racing. I'd struggle to get excited about any horse he trained.

That bumper win was quite stylish though....

Kev the man has trained 25 Festival winners including a Gold Cup, 2 Ryanair's, RSA, 2 Stayers, Triumph, 2 Albert Bartlett's. No bad if you ask me

 

[doctorwu]

This race is looking like a bad book for me. Im 2 down (Red Jack, don't think Samcro will run in this) and 1 to go. Claimintakinforgan is my only bet left in reality. Nice performance from MK, but I'm not convinced. Don't think the Supreme winner will come from that race. I'll leave this race until nearer the time. Good luck to those with live tickets.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Hoping Real Steel ends up in the Moscow Flyer. Willie isn't silly, just because he has lost Annamix, who by the way was only his supposed best novice hurdler, no one actually knows for sure bar those in the actual know, I certainly knew I was taking a punt on the hype more than substance that's for sure, but he always has something up his sleeve. Sayar and Sharjah both appeared pretty early this season, which isn't the norm for a potential top Supreme runner from the WPM yard, but Real Steel is the one that has been introduced about the right sort of time, going on his history of his runners anyway.

Mikael D'haguenet, Vautour & Douvan all took on the Moscow Flyer before going on to win at the festival, Mozoltov also won it, beating none other than eventual Gold Cup winner Don Cossack in the process, but never made it to the festival that season, and of course Min won the same race before finding just Altior too good at the festival. I'd be positive, despite Crack Mome last season, that whichever one ends up at the Moscow Flyer would be his main Supreme hope.

 

[Kevloaf]

Kev the man has trained 25 Festival winners including a Gold Cup, 2 Ryanair's, RSA, 2 Stayers, Triumph, 2 Albert Bartlett's. No bad if you ask me

I did say it was flippant

It's often a debate I find myself in and a lot of the time of comes down to my definition of over rated compared to what's good ... for example, I might say The Beatles are over rated... however I would still agree they are brilliant.

It just so happens I think other trainers would have done the same with his ammo he's been given by JP in particular

 

[Kevloaf]

Hoping Real Steel ends up in the Moscow Flyer. Willie isn't silly, just because he has lost Annamix, who by the way was only his supposed best novice hurdler, no one actually knows for sure bar those in the actual know, I certainly knew I was taking a punt on the hype more than substance that's for sure, but he always has something up his sleeve. Sayar and Sharjah both appeared pretty early this season, which isn't the norm for a potential top Supreme runner from the WPM yard, but Real Steel is the one that has been introduced about the right sort of time, going on his history of his runners anyway.

Mikael D'haguenet, Vautour & Douvan all took on the Moscow Flyer before going on to win at the festival, Mozoltov also won it, beating none other than eventual Gold Cup winner Don Cossack in the process, but never made it to the festival that season, and of course Min won the same race before finding just Altior too good at the festival. I'd be positive, despite Crack Mome last season, that whichever one ends up at the Moscow Flyer would be his main Supreme hope.

With regards to Annamix being the 'best' I think it's important to remember Allez Columbiere was given that tag and Douvan wasn't mentioned the season Douvan won the Supreme. You can easily find quotes from Mullins saying Douvan is one of the best he's trained.... so Real Steel could be the real deal no doubt in my mind at all!

I didn't get any 3 figures but backed at 40/1 so hoping he does follow the path you've outlined

 

[Scooby91]

With regards to Annamix being the 'best' I think it's important to remember Allez Columbiere was given that tag and Douvan wasn't mentioned the season Douvan won the Supreme. You can easily find quotes from Mullins saying Douvan is one of the best he's trained.... so Real Steel could be the real deal no doubt in my mind at all!

I didn't get any 3 figures but backed at 40/1 so hoping he does follow the path you've outlined

Allez colombierez to be fair was v likely the one. His aqps races were extremely good, he won 3 on the bounce, was the best of the French bumper crop by some way which led them to pay an enormous fee at the time of 300,000. Ricci and mullins said since that douvan was the only one that could get near him on the gallops. Shows how much the market has gone silly since.

When I think of this race I always wonder how good Maputo was, another lost too early

 

[Scooby91]

Hoping Real Steel ends up in the Moscow Flyer. Willie isn't silly, just because he has lost Annamix, who by the way was only his supposed best novice hurdler, no one actually knows for sure bar those in the actual know, I certainly knew I was taking a punt on the hype more than substance that's for sure, but he always has something up his sleeve. Sayar and Sharjah both appeared pretty early this season, which isn't the norm for a potential top Supreme runner from the WPM yard, but Real Steel is the one that has been introduced about the right sort of time, going on his history of his runners anyway.

Mikael D'haguenet, Vautour & Douvan all took on the Moscow Flyer before going on to win at the festival, Mozoltov also won it, beating none other than eventual Gold Cup winner Don Cossack in the process, but never made it to the festival that season, and of course Min won the same race before finding just Altior too good at the festival. I'd be positive, despite Crack Mome last season, that whichever one ends up at the Moscow Flyer would be his main Supreme hope.

Sayar goes for the moscow flyer. But that wasnt originally the plan as he had a small setback and missed last weekend. . Wouldnt stop real steel going the same way. And Won't be long until winter soldier comes out either

 

[archie]

Might be worth noting that the Deloitte (Brave Inca) is going down to 2 miles this season so the field may have a slightly different make up.
A bit of a bummer as Bunk Off Early would likely have won last season without the extra couple of furlongs.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Might be worth noting that the Deloitte (Brave Inca) is going down to 2 miles this season so the field may have a slightly different make up.
A bit of a bummer as Bunk Off Early would likely have won last season without the extra couple of furlongs.

Interesting. Hadn't heard that archie. Shame for the Ballymore horses I guess.

 

[archie]

As far as I can see, it's because the new festival weekend combines the previous Sunday meetings at the end of January and mid February. The Golden Cygnet which was previously 2m4f in the January meeting is now listed as 2m6f on the same day as the Deloitte.

 

[Kevloaf]

As far as I can see, it's because the new festival weekend combines the previous Sunday meetings at the end of January and mid February. The Golden Cygnet which was previously 2m4f in the January meeting is now listed as 2m6f on the same day as the Deloitte.

Thanks Archie.

How do people feel about this Irish meeting in Feb. Do we think horses can 'peak' at both meetings?

 

[Can't Catch Me]

As far as I can see, it's because the new festival weekend combines the previous Sunday meetings at the end of January and mid February. The Golden Cygnet which was previously 2m4f in the January meeting is now listed as 2m6f on the same day as the Deloitte.

So there isnt anything between 2m and 2m6f for the top novices archie?

I think they can both peak enough kev. Generally I reckon the top novices who are looking at Cheltenham probably all come into this weekend at 80-90% to obviously save a bit of improvement for Cheltenham, but even at that, they are better than the rest. And if they are all in the same boat with one eye on March ts probably an even playing field.

I suppose you could decide to make this meet a priority and have them 100%, but chances are you are ruling out the Festival if you do so.

 

[SAMCRO]

At this stage at the current odds i cannot bring myself to back Mengli Khan. Well done to those who got the big prices as he looks like elliotts main charge for the race however i dont think he will be too shorter than his current odds lining up in march. Watching back at the royal bond, i dont think theres too much between early doors and Mengli. Early doors completely messes up the second last then on the run in to the last mengli comes across him and early doors has to switch which would have cost him some momentum.

I think Mengli would have beaten him anyway, but the distance flattered him and having run 7 times on the flat and 5 times over hurdles it looks likely hes just abit more professional and mature than the rest of the field at this point in the season.

I couldn't be having Sayar or Sharjah either.

It'll be interesting to see how the form works out from Real Steels race, Daly tiger should be out again soon.

Will be keeping an eye on Winter Soldier and Pym, Hendo saying Pym needed more schooling lets hope hes not another jenkins!.

 

[archie]

I'm guessing that it will still be seen as a prep for Cheltenham, Fairyhouse and Punchestown although there's a new mares' bumper worth a lot of money on the Sunday which is bound to be a target for some.

 

[archie]

So there isnt anything between 2m and 2m6f for the top novices archie?

At the end of this summary, the races are shown in the different categories and trips.
http://www.hri-ras.ie/uploadedFiles/RÁS/RAS(1)/Race_Planning/2018JanAprNHProvSumm.pdf

Last year there wasn't an unrestricted pattern 2 mile novice hurdle between the Moscow Flyer and the end of February which was why BOE went in the Deloitte along with several others from Willie's. I suppose the fact that the Neptune/Ballymore is 2m5f means that the new trip for the Golden Cygnet makes it ok for both the intermediate horses and stayers.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

At this stage at the current odds i cannot bring myself to back Mengli Khan. Well done to those who got the big prices as he looks like elliotts main charge for the race however i dont think he will be too shorter than his current odds lining up in march. Watching back at the royal bond, i dont think theres too much between early doors and Mengli. Early doors completely messes up the second last then on the run in to the last mengli comes across him and early doors has to switch which would have cost him some momentum.

I think Mengli would have beaten him anyway, but the distance flattered him and having run 7 times on the flat and 5 times over hurdles it looks likely hes just abit more professional and mature than the rest of the field at this point in the season.

I couldn't be having Sayar or Sharjah either.

It'll be interesting to see how the form works out from Real Steels race, Daly tiger should be out again soon.

Will be keeping an eye on Winter Soldier and Pym, Hendo saying Pym needed more schooling lets hope hes not another jenkins!.

I suppose there are two ways of looking at this. I totally agree that Early Doors could have finished a lot closer, which made me have a saver on him at 33/1. The price differential between him and MK just seems wrong to my eyes.

But rather than suggest MK is too short (I personally think his odds are pretty generous considering what he has achieved, and the respective price of other novices), its more a case that ED is well over priced. Take MK out of the race and he has annihilated the rest.

Outside of these two, Reel Steel is the only one other one to interest me so far.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

At the end of this summary, the races are shown in the different categories and trips.
http://www.hri-ras.ie/uploadedFiles/RÁS/RAS(1)/Race_Planning/2018JanAprNHProvSumm.pdf

Last year there wasn't an unrestricted pattern 2 mile novice hurdle between the Moscow Flyer and the end of February which was why BOE went in the Deloitte along with several others from Willie's. I suppose the fact that the Neptune/Ballymore is 2m5f means that the new trip for the Golden Cygnet makes it ok for both the intermediate horses and stayers.

Thanks for the reply archie. Quite a big difference though isnt it? Always thought the Deloitte over 2m2f on soft ground was a perfect Neptune prep. Think the extra 4f makes quite a difference. Seems to be a good change for Supreme and AB horses though.