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Supreme Novices 2018

Faugheen_Machine said:
Agree with most of that Folski but speed horses do win the Supreme. Vautour and Altior being two recent examples.
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Both of these were/are top class grade 1 horses. I don't think either were speed horses, I'd say a speed horse is something like My Tent Or Yours or Sprinter Sacre, something that can quicken off a gallop and go that bit faster than anything else and would thrive in a sprint finish. I'd say those two horses you referred to were simply raw power in their Supremes. I thought Altior was 100% caught for pace in the Arkle last year and my immediate thought after the race was King George. His Supreme was less than a second slower than Annie Powers Champion Hurdles which was a course record, that is a pretty blistering gallop for novice hurdlers. Vautour just ran everything else into submission and powered up the hill. Also with the exception of him that seemed an average Supreme. Both I think can run very fast longer than other horses but I don't think they would be suited by a slow pace 2miles, See God's Own's defeat of Vautour at Punchestown.
 
Western Ryder @ 33's. Ran really well in the bumper coming from far back through traffic to finish half a length behind Claimantakinforgan. Showed the the same qualities to run on strongly up the hill to win at Cheltenham in December, where he hurdled slickly and beat the Tolworth winner, Summerville Boy. I am too put off by the Tolworth run. WG has said very clearly that he needs a fast run race which he didn't get on heavy ground Sandown.

I think the market has overreacted and I'd have 33/1 EW any day of the week over some of shorter prices at the top of the market.
 
charlie said:
Western Ryder @ 33's. Ran really well in the bumper coming from far back through traffic to finish half a length behind Claimantakinforgan. Showed the the same qualities to run on strongly up the hill to win at Cheltenham in December, where he hurdled slickly and beat the Tolworth winner, Summerville Boy. I am too put off by the Tolworth run. WG has said very clearly that he needs a fast run race which he didn't get on heavy ground Sandown.

I think the market has overreacted and I'd have 33/1 EW any day of the week over some of shorter prices at the top of the market.
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He's going further
 
charlie said:
Do you have a link Scobby? With NRNB i am not worried, plus when Samcro is confirmed as going Ballymore the masses will run for the hills.
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Nothing special. But I know where to ask for info for a few select horses. And they usually kindly reply.
 
Haven't been able to get this confirmed, but is the Deloitte now over 2 miles instead of 2m2f - Racing Post card mention 2m

I'm strongly for Sharjah for the Supreme, and strongly believe getabird is going Ballymore. The only doubt I had was this race which is normally over 2m2f, and is normally one which turns out Neptune horses. A drop in trip would be a positive for my stake in Sharjah for the supreme
 
opatcho said:
Haven't been able to get this confirmed, but is the Deloitte now over 2 miles instead of 2m2f - Racing Post card mention 2m

I'm strongly for Sharjah for the Supreme, and strongly believe getabird is going Ballymore. The only doubt I had was this race which is normally over 2m2f, and is normally one which turns out Neptune horses. A drop in trip would be a positive for my stake in Sharjah for the supreme
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Yes it is now 2m. I had forgotten and was put right yesterday I think :encouragement:
 
Great Write up Kevloaf , you should be doing that for the racing post or similar , Was Sort of thinking along those lines , but you
put it into word's , where even i can figure it out , Thing is , I've been toying with doing a big bet and I put
Getabird in , then got cold feet , and was thinking .. is Getabird a good thing or not ????. , Argument's for
and against , But looking down the list , I can't see anything below the top 5 in the betting . and I am well c covered on those .And the thing that's struck me last few day's is , Rich Ricci seems very keen on Getabird
even if he's being coy about the final target , Although i do think personally that They probably don't really
decide till very late on , .
 
BigChaang said:
Great Write up Kevloaf , you should be doing that for the racing post or similar , Was Sort of thinking along those lines , but you
put it into word's , where even i can figure it out , Thing is , I've been toying with doing a big bet and I put
Getabird in , then got cold feet , and was thinking .. is Getabird a good thing or not ????. , Argument's for
and against , But looking down the list , I can't see anything below the top 5 in the betting . and I am well c covered on those .And the thing that's struck me last few day's is , Rich Ricci seems very keen on Getabird
even if he's being coy about the final target , Although i do think personally that They probably don't really
decide till very late on , .
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Haha thanks BC - Have to try and post something useful every once in a while so I am not "denigrating the sport" :highly_amused:

Fav SP's
2008 - 8/1 co favs - Binocular (2nd), Pigeon Island(11th) and Muirhead(12th)

2009 - 9/4 Cousin Vinny (5th)

2010 - 4/5 Dunguib (3rd) - First time I'd booked the week off, watched it at home with a mate, it lost so I ate an entire trifle!

2011 - 7/4 Cue Card (4th) First visit to Chelt never change your mind:very_drunk: Switched from Al Ferof 10/1 to CC 10 mins before the off!

2012 - 6/1 Galileo's Choice - Learnt my lesson, stuck to my guns and backed Cinders and Ashes 12/1 :triumphant: Surprised Darlan wasn't fav!

2013 - 15/8 MTOY (2nd) I backed future Champion Chaser Dodging Bullets 6 places E/W too that year - he came 9th.

2014 - 7/2J Vautour (1st) and Irving (9th) - Split stakes on both... embarrassing.

2015 - 2/1 Douvan (1st)

2016 - 15/8 Min (2nd)

2017 - 3/1J Melon and Ballyandy - Backed every horse in the race :p

What do people think Getabird will go off at? I thought bigger than his current price (although with BOG with 365 I suppose that doesn't matter!) but after Labaik last year, will the bookies want to take Getabird on?
 
Kevloaf said:
Haha thanks BC - Have to try and post something useful every once in a while so I am not "denigrating the sport" :highly_amused:

Fav SP's
2008 - 8/1 co favs - Binocular (2nd), Pigeon Island(11th) and Muirhead(12th)

2009 - 9/4 Cousin Vinny (5th)

2010 - 4/5 Dunguib (3rd) - First time I'd booked the week off, watched it at home with a mate, it lost so I ate an entire trifle!

2011 - 7/4 Cue Card (4th) First visit to Chelt never change your mind:very_drunk: Switched from Al Ferof 10/1 to CC 10 mins before the off!

2012 - 6/1 Galileo's Choice - Learnt my lesson, stuck to my guns and backed Cinders and Ashes 12/1 :triumphant: Surprised Darlan wasn't fav!

2013 - 15/8 MTOY (2nd) I backed future Champion Chaser Dodging Bullets 6 places E/W too that year - he came 9th.

2014 - 7/2J Vautour (1st) and Irving (9th) - Split stakes on both... embarrassing.

2015 - 2/1 Douvan (1st)

2016 - 15/8 Min (2nd)

2017 - 3/1J Melon and Ballyandy - Backed every horse in the race :p

What do people think Getabird will go off at? I thought bigger than his current price (although with BOG with 365 I suppose that doesn't matter!) but after Labaik last year, will the bookies want to take Getabird on?
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If he turns up, Ruby on. I see between 2 and 3/1
 
Does anyone have a fancy that isn't in the top 5 in the betting?

I believe this is the target for Summerville Boy and think he’ll be around half the 25s available now come the day. I think he can be in the frame & there’ll be much worse 25/1 pokes through the week!
 
Cashew King said:
Does anyone have a fancy that isn't in the top 5 in the betting?

I believe this is the target for Summerville Boy and think he’ll be around half the 25s available now come the day. I think he can be in the frame & there’ll be much worse 25/1 pokes through the week!
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Last year's bumper 2nd Debuchet looks interesting at 33/1. Disappointed when turned over at 6/5 at Leop, but big reputation and maybe one of the mullins horses that has been slightly overlooked. Good run in the Deloitte and 33's will be cut big time,.
 
charlie said:
Last year's bumper 2nd Debuchet looks interesting at 33/1. Disappointed when turned over at 6/5 at Leop, but big reputation and maybe one of the mullins horses that has been slightly overlooked. Good run in the Deloitte and 33's will be cut big

time,.
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I’ve backed him ew at 33s. Wasn’t right lto and expect better in the Deloitte
 
Cashew King said:
Does anyone have a fancy that isn't in the top 5 in the betting?

I believe this is the target for Summerville Boy and think he’ll be around half the 25s available now come the day. I think he can be in the frame & there’ll be much worse 25/1 pokes through the week!
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I have backed Lalor at 50/1 with Hills. Favourite for the Betfair Hurdle and a good performance would see this slashed,
 
Kevloaf said:
2010 - 4/5 Dunguib (3rd) - First time I'd booked the week off, watched it at home with a mate, it lost so I ate an entire trifle!
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This :highly_amused::highly_amused:

FWIW Dunguib cost me my first ever 4 figure win! :sorrow:
 
charlie said:
Last year's bumper 2nd Debuchet looks interesting at 33/1. Disappointed when turned over at 6/5 at Leop, but big reputation and maybe one of the mullins horses that has been slightly overlooked. Good run in the Deloitte and 33's will be cut big time,.
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He's not one of Willie's horses, unless I have missed something? But he is with Mags Mullins, who runs her own yard.
 
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