Supreme Novices 2018

[Folski]

I agree, but it's already seen that way if they are restricting a customers bets for a Ricci horse in one race but not the other, surely? If they've taken all they were willing too at the current price then offer a shorter price for the same amount of money, no?

I've only seen one person say as much on twitter. Could it be due to the fact he's 11/4 for Supreme and 8/1 for Ballymore with them. €150 at 8/1 would return a similar amount to €500 at 11/4.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I've only seen one person say as much on twitter. Could it be due to the fact he's 11/4 for Supreme and 8/1 for Ballymore with them. €150 at 8/1 would return a similar amount to €500 at 11/4.

Very true, and hadn't thought of it like that I guess.

There was only one on Twitter actually, it was the conversation of another I got confused with, but even if that one person tested the waters with BetBright it still doesn't bode well for them/Ricci having differing amounts available for the same horse in different races, unless like you said they have a set liability per customer/bet and that could well be the reason why!

 

[TimRiggins]

Very true, and hadn't thought of it like that I guess.

There was only one on Twitter actually, it was the conversation of another I got confused with, but even if that one person tested the waters with BetBright it still doesn't bode well for them/Ricci having differing amounts available for the same horse in different races, unless like you said they have a set liability per customer/bet and that could well be the reason why!

Most bookies do that, and limit customers to a takeout amount.

For example, with Sky I can have 50p on a 20/1 shot, or a quid on a 10/1 shot.

 

[Innoko]

Most bookies do that, and limit customers to a takeout amount.

For example, with Sky I can have 50p on a 20/1 shot, or a quid on a 10/1 shot.

How generous of them.

A travesty of an online bookmaker.

 

[Kevloaf]

Cheers pal, interesting stuff. I have never thought about the fear angle like that before

Kevin Blake put an arguement forward for that being the case on a Final Furlong Podcast earlier this season... was something about the second time after a wind-op being the time to catch a horse to see if it has worked, as the first time the horse is scared to 'go through the pain barrier'. This time Debuchet should remember his last run, where he didn't suffer and therefore be better this time...

 

[Kevloaf]

The BEtBright thing sounds like a complete non story to me.

Fabricated for something to talk about.

Too unlikely that Ricci would leak information to 'make money' or whatever possible benefit that is. There are FAR FAR easier ways that he could make money by changing running plans than using his own company to do it...

Back to the racing, I've added Debuchet 33/1 NRNB 2 pt e/w. A good show versus Sharjah and on his bumper form combined with that he'd have to be a similar (shorter) price than Claimantakinforgan.... Not sure they'd run him over 2m as a 'rag' either... but the magic "cash out" will probably be an option anyway.

 

[archie]

Unfortunately there are several different wind operations and the outcome is completely unpredictable. There will certainly be cases as described by Kevin but there are also cases where it works once and then not again, where it doesn't work at all, where it works for several runs and where it works for the rest of a horse's career.

 

[charlie]

Kevin Blake put an arguement forward for that being the case on a Final Furlong Podcast earlier this season... was something about the second time after a wind-op being the time to catch a horse to see if it has worked, as the first time the horse is scared to 'go through the pain barrier'. This time Debuchet should remember his last run, where he didn't suffer and therefore be better this time...

Interesting, thanks Kev. Now you mention it I think I remember that. Wonder if Altior could be affected in the same way

 

[Kevloaf]

Unfortunately there are several different wind operations and the outcome is completely unpredictable. There will certainly be cases as described by Kevin but there are also cases where it works once and then not again, where it doesn't work at all, where it works for several runs and where it works for the rest of a horse's career.

Yes definitely. It'll be a good number of years until somebody (probably Kevin Blake!) does a study on it...

Interesting, thanks Kev. Now you mention it I think I remember that. Wonder if Altior could be affected in the same way

Certainly could be, which would be why I'd prefer his prep to be in a race and not in a racecourse gallop

 

[opatcho]

... but the magic "cash out" will probably be an option anyway.

Waiting for the bookies in question to notice this feature and disable it!
Must of cashed out 4-5 bets, getting my stake back after the selection has disappointed

Advantage for the punters, for the time being!

 

[Kevloaf]

Waiting for the bookies in question to notice this feature and disable it!
Must of cashed out 4-5 bets, getting my stake back after the selection has disappointed

Advantage for the punters, for the time being!

I've got a lucky 15 I can cash out for £420 and just CANNOT decide what to do! Half of me wants them to remove the feature so it is out of my hands again :highly_amused:

 

[charlie]

I've got a lucky 15 I can cash out for £420 and just CANNOT decide what to do! Half of me wants them to remove the feature so it is out of my hands again :highly_amused:

Don't leave us in suspense Kev! What are the deets

 

[opatcho]

ha ha it does open up to a major dilemma - do I cash out, dont I

I have a fair big bet on with another bookies which I'd love to cash out after day one as I'm not all that keen now on the last horse in the leg running on day 2. They don't offer cash out on antepost bets :-(

 

[Scooby91]

·

If The Cap Fits will go straight to the Festival- harry fry says he is 99% certain to be heading to the Supreme. Racecourse gallop planned

 

[opatcho]

·

If The Cap Fits will go straight to the Festival- harry fry says he is 99% certain to be heading to the Supreme. Racecourse gallop planned

Was my heading selection heading into the season. Managed to get on at decent AP on exchanges. However....

1) Wanted him to have had a graded run before festival
2) Wanted him to have had another run (4 runs over hurdles)
3) Wanted him to have ran at cheltenham

So, he's dropped down on my shortlist now. Shame really. I do however think he'll run a decent race (3rd or 4th) but then come out of this and win the novices at Aintree in April

 

[Kevloaf]

Was my heading selection heading into the season. Managed to get on at decent AP on exchanges. However....

1) Wanted him to have had a graded run before festival
2) Wanted him to have had another run (4 runs over hurdles)
3) Wanted him to have ran at cheltenham

So, he's dropped down on my shortlist now. Shame really. I do however think he'll run a decent race (3rd or 4th) but then come out of this and win the novices at Aintree in April

2 and 3 aren't major concerns according to gaultstats. Between 2-5 runs and I think only 6/26 had won at Chelt before winning the Supreme....

He's my pick for the race still. I know Scooby mentioned him first too although not sure how keen he still is?

 

[opatcho]

2 and 3 aren't major concerns according to gaultstats. Between 2-5 runs and I think only 6/26 had won at Chelt before winning the Supreme....

He's my pick for the race still. I know Scooby mentioned him first too although not sure how keen he still is?

2 is important to me, but I can live with 3 runs. Only 2 hurdles runs is a no no for me
3, I should have been more specific. The Irish lot, I want to see run over at tracks like Punch, Leo, Naav. The UK lot, I want to see them run over Cheltenham. That 6/26 stat will be misleading as most of the Irish novices wouldnt have race over here yet

 

[Scooby91]

Stats mean nothing lads :highly_amused:.

I'm aware people have different approaches. But I do pretty well out of this sport without ever looking at a single stat.

I'm never going to follow stats as I see each horse as an individual.
However if someone has the time to put up the ones that hit the trends for each race would be interesting to see the percentage that come in. As i deem them completely pointless

 

[charlie]

Stats mean nothing lads :highly_amused:.

I'm aware people have different approaches. But I do pretty well out of this sport without ever looking at a single stat.

I'm never going to follow stats as I see each horse as an individual.
However if someone has the time to put up the ones that hit the trends for each race would be interesting to see the percentage that come in. As i deem them completely pointless

I like different approaches as well. For me, I wouldn't bet based on stats, nor would I change a strong opinion for stats, but I do like that in a game where opinions and interpretation of ability varies dramatically, that we have as many stats as we do. I enjoy reading them and will let them factor into my decision making where appropriate. The pro stat people say 'stats exist for a reason'. The stats are pointless people will say 'stats were made to be broken'. I see both as valid views.

 

[Robbante]

I don’t place too much weight by stats at all, but they can be a useful guide, especially for handicaps. If you have a horse rated 144 and he’s listed in the coral cup and martin pipe betting at this stage, then you see that 5 of the last 7 winners of the pipe were rated 133-139, it can help influence which way you think connections may lean, and even which race that horse is likely to get in, so in that respect I see stats as useful in helping to get value