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Supreme Novices 2018

I've been thinking about that 12/1 about Annamix. I'm not on as a single just yet and while it is a fair argument that there hasn't been a single step on a UK track, that price could still resemble a decent bet. When he comes out and wins in ireland at 1/4 or something silly then he immediately goes 4/1 for this. Then if he heads to the Moscow Flyer (as Ricci's recent supreme horses have) and beats a trio of Gigginstown horses you're looking at somewhere around 7/4. All it takes then is there not too be a standout opponent on the day and the Irish pile in and we end up with yet another even money/odds on Ricci shot for the Supreme.

Or is that too many ifs and buts?
 
ryanh97 said:
I've been thinking about that 12/1 about Annamix. I'm not on as a single just yet and while it is a fair argument that there hasn't been a single step on a UK track, that price could still resemble a decent bet. When he comes out and wins in ireland at 1/4 or something silly then he immediately goes 4/1 for this. Then if he heads to the Moscow Flyer (as Ricci's recent supreme horses have) and beats a trio of Gigginstown horses you're looking at somewhere around 7/4. All it takes then is there not too be a standout opponent on the day and the Irish pile in and we end up with yet another even money/odds on Ricci shot for the Supreme.

Or is that too many ifs and buts?
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Its logical.


One thing I did notice Patrick mullins was talking about Annamix and joked that there was an amateur riders novice hurdle in the time frame that Annamix will be out and he'd be available for the ride. He made the exact same joke with min and douvan in a novice chase when he was on the line with chapman previously
Sounds silly but he gave a bit away there
 
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Its only home work and as mentioned he has to go and do it on the track, but one of the connections told a very good friend of mine (at Chelt this weekend) that 12/1 was a very big price for the horse on his work at the moment and he should have a big bet on him, and he would be out in a week or two's time. Despite what we hear all the time they are not machines and he could come out and bomb for a whole number of reasons, but from the conversation I had this weekend at least you know that he is showing a lot of ability and to be fair he would need to be at the price he is, but id expect the 12/1 to be gone by the time he runs.
 
billymag said:
Its only home work and as mentioned he has to go and do it on the track, but one of the connections told a very good friend of mine (at Chelt this weekend) that 12/1 was a very big price for the horse on his work at the moment and he should have a big bet on him, and he would be out in a week or two's time. Despite what we hear all the time they are not machines and he could come out and bomb for a whole number of reasons, but from the conversation I had this weekend at least you know that he is showing a lot of ability and to be fair he would need to be at the price he is, but id expect the 12/1 to be gone by the time he runs.
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Thanks billy. I am already on but might consider some multiples if the 12s are still there when I get home tonight
 
Just considering Mullins' horses in this... is Sayar going a little under the radar?

The Mullins stable tour says "He could prove to be top-class. He's two from two over hurdles and looks very promising. WE're looking at running him in the Grade 1 Royal Bond at Fairyhourse on December 3 when we'll learn more about him"

That race over 2m has seen some superb winners (Ista 96, Moscow Flyer 99, Hardy Eustace 02, Dunguib :highly_amused:09, Jezki 12,)

and Mullins has had Hurricane Fly, Zaidpour, Nichols Canyon, Long Dog and Airlie Beach win it... as well as running horses like Allez Columbieres, Arctic Fire, Champagne Fever

so it is safe to say he does send a lot of his good ones here! Some years look weaker than others, and he does run a few so we'd need to see what else turns up.... but 25/1 is fair?

Although collaterally, he beat Morgan less than Mengli Khan did (with MK looking a lot better at the end of the race) and Makitorix beat Big Ben further too ...

talked myself out of it :highly_amused:
 
Ascot 2.05 Friday looks like a hot race which could have a bearing on the supreme betting. Mr One More is of great interest to me having backed him @33s
 
Western Ryder back out tomorrow. Hopefully he makes it round and puts up a decent performance
 
Scooby91 said:
Western Ryder back out tomorrow. Hopefully he makes it round and puts up a decent performance
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Odds of 1/2 first show you'd hope so...

New silks too....

I've taken some exhange prices for Western Ryder although not 3 figures
 
Rupert on RUK re: Annamix

Anamix impresses at home:

The novices are all cranking up in their work. I haven’t sat on Anamix and unfortunately I’m not likely to be sitting on him any time soon either!

I have been watching him in his work, though, and he goes really well. But, like all horses, what they do at home and what they do on the track can be very different things.

He could be a morning glory or he could be the real deal. He’s a nice horse with a big action, he jumps well and he is doing things nicely. He has to go and deliver on the track now.
 
Not often a morning glory has failed me so I’ll maybe put another unit or two on
 
Kevloaf said:
Odds of 1/2 first show you'd hope so...

New silks too....

I've taken some exhange prices for Western Ryder although not 3 figures
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He's got along way to go on that performance but atleast he opened his account and go on from there.
 
Scooby91 said:
He's got along way to go on that performance but atleast he opened his account and go on from there.
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Should pick up a couple more pots on the way!

Haven't seen it yet though
 
Afternoon chaps. Bit late to the party on this forum this year, but finally rekindled my Cheltenham fever now proper racing is in full swing :)

I've made my first significant move this year in this race (bit of aftertiming Im afraid) and have backed Mengli Khan at 33/1, 25/1 and 20/1. Think I'm going to go in again at 16/1 as his price is only heading one way. I think he should be fav already. I know Annamix is a big talking horse, but I think Mengli Khan looked potentially outstanding in both runs. I know ex flat horses have a terrible record in this race, but he's a huge big horse and has the stamp of a real NH type.

Obviously his form is largely unproven, but GE was adamant after his last run he is a 2 miler so that's a good start.

Edelpour was a Grade 3 placed flat horse who went for huge money and he depatched him with consummate ease. I thought it was noticeable how he powered away in the last couple of hundred yards and also how natural he was at his hurdles.

I had a word for Stratum in th Grade 3 Novice last time, and again, Mengli Khan depatched him with ease. Morgan seems a pretty reliable yardstick and he couldn't have done it easier. I think that's probably the best form we've seen yet in the 2m Novice Hurdling division.

Really excited by this fella. My only negative is that I think he will prefer soft ground, but first race, first day, we know it won't be any firmer than good to soft, so fingers crossed that should be Ok.

16/1, based on what he's shown already, and based on the fact many at the top of the market haven't even run, or look more likely to run elsewhere, still looks a really good price to my eyes.

I've had a saver on Annamix at 14/1 just in case he's as good as some rumours suggest!
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Afternoon chaps. Bit late to the party on this forum this year, but finally rekindled my Cheltenham fever now proper racing is in full swing :)

I've made my first significant move this year in this race (bit of aftertiming Im afraid) and have backed Mengli Khan at 33/1, 25/1 and 20/1. Think I'm going to go in again at 16/1 as his price is only heading one way. I think he should be fav already. I know Annamix is a big talking horse, but I think Mengli Khan looked potentially outstanding in both runs. I know ex flat horses have a terrible record in this race, but he's a huge big horse and has the stamp of a real NH type.

Obviously his form is largely unproven, but GE was adamant after his last run he is a 2 miler so that's a good start.

Edelpour was a Grade 3 placed flat horse who went for huge money and he depatched him with consummate ease. I thought it was noticeable how he powered away in the last couple of hundred yards and also how natural he was at his hurdles.

I had a word for Stratum in th Grade 3 Novice last time, and again, Mengli Khan depatched him with ease. Morgan seems a pretty reliable yardstick and he couldn't have done it easier. I think that's probably the best form we've seen yet in the 2m Novice Hurdling division.

Really excited by this fella. My only negative is that I think he will prefer soft ground, but first race, first day, we know it won't be any firmer than good to soft, so fingers crossed that should be Ok.

16/1, based on what he's shown already, and based on the fact many at the top of the market haven't even run, or look more likely to run elsewhere, still looks a really good price to my eyes.

I've had a saver on Annamix at 14/1 just in case he's as good as some rumours suggest!
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Iv had a few wuid on him myself iwould agree that on what he's done so far mengli khan looks good. He would look to set a fair standard for the graded 2 mile hurdles in Ireland. There's a few nice graded 2 mile races coming up so we will learn a little more about him. And see if he is a contender for the win.
 
Agree Scooby. Gordon said next stop Royal Bond after his last run, so we will see what he's made of there.

I am making a conscious effort not to get too carried away too early this season, as often the form doesn't really work out as it may have looked initially, but had to make an exception for this fella! There must have been a steady stream of money for him too as he's consistently shortened up over the last ten days.
 
I noticed Willie 'only' had five entries for the Royal Bond, and Stratum was one of them, so they obviously think he's one of their better 2 milers.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I noticed Willie 'only' had five entries for the Royal Bond, and Stratum was one of them, so they obviously think he's one of their better 2 milers.
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Iv backed mengli khan myself but hard to take that as a positive because historically he block enters the ones who are more forward. How far stratum would be up there pecking order id have no idea. But he wouldn't be last.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Agree Scooby. Gordon said next stop Royal Bond after his last run, so we will see what he's made of there.

I am making a conscious effort not to get too carried away too early this season, as often the form doesn't really work out as it may have looked initially, but had to make an exception for this fella! There must have been a steady stream of money for him too as he's consistently shortened up over the last ten days.
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Iv noticed the support coming from somewhere must be the best backed horse for the supreme in the last couple of weeks. Hes also been extremely well backed over night / on the day both times
 
Yes very true. Well backed in both wins as if they know he's a good horse.
 
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