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Supreme Novices 2017

Kevloaf said:
LD 0% for this race?

Sporting Life seems to have the best right up that I've seen from today ...

"SKY BET SUPREME TEAM

We'll probably have four or five runners. MELON, BUNK OFF EARLY, CRACK MOME, CILAOS EMERY - those four, anyway."
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I had all but given up on my Cilaos Emery voucher so good to see I might actually get a run...
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Suppose Willie is well represented in the Supreme and is likely to have Augusta Kate and Penhill for the AB. So it looks like Neptune or Mares Novice for Let's Dance. And it sounds like he is pretty confident about Bacardys in the former. Which makes the Mares Novice make the most sense I suppose.
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I'll post it in the Mares thread.... but Let's Dance doesn't seem likely to be going for AB or Neptune CCM
 
No I agree Kev. Was responding to Jonnymac who said he'd be surprised if it's Let's Dance v Airlie Beach in the Mares Novice.
 
Fair play..... quite like this little article from Ben Linfoot on the SL website...
Let’s Get Fruity In The Supreme

I’ve gone on record as saying I couldn’t have Melon for the Sky Bet Supreme at the prices, but if there was one horse I wanted to back for the Festival today on the back of trainer vibes, it is the one named after a large fruit.

It was what Mullins said and how he said it.

This next sentence came after a thoughtful pause, when asked if it would be tough for Ruby Walsh to decide between maiden hurdle winner Melon and strong-travelling Grade One second Bunk Off Early in the Supreme.

“When you're looking at what Melon does at home, all the time, I'd say it will be an easy enough decision for Ruby.”

He also spoke of his fine pedigree, his impressive physique, how he thought ‘Champion Hurdle horse’ when he bought him.

Melon doesn’t have the experience. Mullins acknowledged that. Nothing since Flown in 1992 has won the Supreme on the back of one run.

But the reputation is certainly there. Mullins exuded the same kind of confidence he did with Vautour and Douvan prior to their wins in the Festival curtain raiser.

And if I don’t back him, I fear it will be me that will be the melon.
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I would say as well, he commented about how he won the Neptune (albeit a different race) with a horse having only won once.... (Fiveforthree)

Seems to be VERY positive, when he has no reason at all to be this bullish about it?
 
I hope David Pipe is listening to all this.

Extra gallops for Moon Racer up the Pond House hill.
 
It's Moon Racer for me :encouragement:
 
Starting to think Melon is a tank, Mullins was praising him & said Ruby will pick him over the others they have. I don't think we have anything like Altior in this race this year. the value is gone but even at 9/2 it could be a good bet. but I thought that last year when I had Min at 10s...
 
The only thing that puts me off Melon is the fact he has only had 1 run, thats it. However reading the stable tour interviews it really is coming across as if Melon will be unbeatable in this.

They clearly think he is the next Douvan/Vautour
 
I think we'll have an idea what they think in the two days before the race if the money comes for him. The owner obviously thinks he's special. Hadn't been to watch any of his other horses at a racecourse since he finished bookmaking but decided to go and watch Melon make his debut in a maiden.

I think that is quite telling.
 
It just seems strange that Mullins is making statements about how well Melon is doing compared to the others. I remember they we're almost downbeat on Min and I am not getting those vibes. Maybe they feel the race is weaker than in previous years...

The vibes about Melon are certainly worth considering....I wonder how it'll affect the market. You can see it being punted off the boards or drifting out loads. I am sure people will be mad keen to take it on, BUT on the other hand, it's the kind of silly gamble that goes off an even stupider price. Will shorten a point as soon as (if) Ruby says he will ride it. Even though that is assumed now.


Very pleased to see Bunk Off Early, Ciliaos Emery and Crack Mome are set to take their chance though... I'd take that as a negative for Melon personally
 
Very pleased to see Bunk Off Early, Ciliaos Emery and Crack Mome are set to take their chance though... I'd take that as a negative for Melon personally

Really Kev? Different owners who probably all want a runner in the race. Mullins has always run three or four, simply because he so many horses, even when he's had horses like Min, Vautour, Douvan.
 
Yet Melon has been moved out from 3/1 to 4/1 by Paddy today, despite the comments...
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Very pleased to see Bunk Off Early, Ciliaos Emery and Crack Mome are set to take their chance though... I'd take that as a negative for Melon personally

Really Kev? Different owners who probably all want a runner in the race. Mullins has always run three or four, simply because he so many horses, even when he's had horses like Min, Vautour, Douvan.
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Yes, but he doesn't normally run five in trial races. Strikes me he knows he hasn't got a superstar and he is just maximising his chances by throwing as many darts as possible.
 
Melon wasn't available for the big trial races though as he was injured early season and probably felt he didn't want to run him first time up in a Grade 1 trial?
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Very pleased to see Bunk Off Early, Ciliaos Emery and Crack Mome are set to take their chance though... I'd take that as a negative for Melon personally

Really Kev? Different owners who probably all want a runner in the race. Mullins has always run three or four, simply because he so many horses, even when he's had horses like Min, Vautour, Douvan.
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I agree with that in this race, but the lack of any superstar and that they've all pretty much beaten it other more often than not leads to there being no standout horses and whoever is best on the day running. Having backed all those at each way prices I'm happy enough that they are live and not just each way flyers?


I think in recent years, if he's had a really good one, he has moved horses in to races that CAN'T beat his best one... Bellshill, Shaneshill both would fit in that category? Whereas as KB says, this year it looks like they all have a live chance, and thats why I think it is a slight negative for Melon, despite comments today.


Personally, seeing Melon hack up will be lovely for me but I try and not to just be looking and commenting through my own rose tinted glasses
 
I wouldn't say having 4 in a race like this is a negative on any other horses chances, his last supreme entries by year are as follows:

2016 - 3 (Min the main hope, finished 2nd)

2015 - 4 (Douvan won the race)

2014 - 3 (Vautour won)

2013 - 3 (Champagne Feverwon)

2012 - 3 (Allure Of Illusion his best finisher in 5th)

I'd say he just throws a few darts at this regardless of what he has, I mean we know how good Douvan was and he had 3 other stablemates against him by different owners.

I think it is purely based on the different owners of these horses that will want to be involved at Cheltenham, nothing else. Melon seems to be the 'one' though!
 
Willie's horses were all late starting this season because of the dry autumn. There is no unrestricted, winners of one, 2m novice hurdle in Ireland between the Moscow Flyer in mid January and the Deloitte in mid February so Bunk Off Early for one was forced to go from maiden to Grade 1. You'd like to think that race conditions in the Supreme will suit him better than the Deloitte.
Melon obviously works very well but no-one can know if he'll reproduce that in a couple of weeks time.
 
Do we know for sure that there's no superstar in the race, these are mostly developing horses that have yet to show their best. Did we know that Vautour, Altior and Douvan were superstars before the race, certainly plenty of hype around Douvan, but the race confirmed the hype, Altior was well under the radar, could be something like that lurking that needs good ground and a fast pace to really shine, and will get that for the first time in the Supreme.
 
It would be impossible to argue that Vautour, Altior and Douvan hadn't done a great deal more than trotting up in a diabolical maiden race. Altior went off 4/1 against a massive hype horse so I don't think he was that much under the radar. It is purely the record of the trainer that is dictating the price of Melon. He has had several false dawns this season and who knows had this one had a second run it might have been another one. There is no doubt he is a shocking price based on that one appearance.
 
Personally I'd ignore the form of his maiden win. How he did it was impressive an in the style of a good horse.

This stable have an unbelievable record in the supreme and have plenty of good horses to work against, so they should know if they have a decent horse in their hands. I'm inclined to believe the rumours and suspect he could be something special.

If it was from any other stable, I'd ignore it completely.
 
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