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Supreme Novices 2017

Bubble burst for Crack Mome. Pulled too hard early and terrible jump at the last
 
KingSprinterSacre said:
What do we make of moon racers hurdle form? won twice under a length victory over Ballyandy and a 2length victory of Mirsaale and Ballyandy again. Mirsaale next 2 races 5th of 6th beaten 64 lengths and then 9th of 9 beaten 27lengths. He doesn't scream a decent type to me. Ballyandy I don't know what to make of yet. 3 defeats, 2nd and 3rd to Moonracer then when stepped up in distance like I thought he needed but was beaten by Messire Des Obeaux (who has looked decent but over further than 2mile).
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Difficult to answer. Wasn't supposed to beat ballyandy the second time. I suppose his bumper form looks solid enough ams he then beat the next seasons bumper winner ... hasn't done anything wrong.

Will divide opinion I'm sure....
 
After that I've decided not to back any horse in this until final decs are announced. Jenkins is my only ante post play in the race and it just seems to be disappointing run, after disappointing run by those at the head of the market.
 
Played Jenkins at 20s, Crack Mome 33s to 25s and then added Top Ville Ben recently at 40s as posted. The first 2 I was excited about but both look beaten dockets now. Top Ville Ben early days but i'm not sure if he'll be good enough. I'm in a bit of a hole for the supreme.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
After that I've decided not to back any horse in this until final decs are announced. Jenkins is my only ante post play in the race and it just seems to be disappointing run, after disappointing run by those at the head of the market.
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A wise decision I think
 
I still think Moon racer is a lot better than he has shown so far as a hurdler, and his hurdle form rightly puts him at the head of the betting. The 2015 bumper was a very strong race and if his hurdling technique has continued to improve when he gets to Cheltenham I think he will win. I hope so as he is my only AP bet looking really strong at the moment - on at 20s.

I was interested to see that Senewalk has still been given an entry as I thought he was getting packed away for next season. If he were to get there fully fit I would still hope he might be a strong player - always a fan of horses first run after a wind op as you can often see dramatic improvement and he looked classy on the flat in France. Anyone know anything more about what's happening with him - he's in a lot of my multiples!

Finally, great forum this - first time posting - some good serious talk whereas Betfair has become rather poor.
 
Walsh said: “Not as big a surprise as the first time. You’d be disappointed if he didn’t run well, but turning into the straight I was quite happy that he was going to be a good third.

“They were two fair horses in front of him and when he got by Gordon’s horse I thought Ruby had a bit more in the tank, but he joined him at the last and did it well.

“It’s a sharp old two around here. It’s tight on the inside and I was worried about that. It was down to be a Grade Two but it was a winners of one really, but he did it nicely, his jumping was very good, I thought he was going as quick as he wanted to be going.

“He could be a very good horse. He’s a big raw sort of a horse. I’ll leave it to Frank [Berry] and JP [McManus] I’m sure they’ll have loads of ammunition for Cheltenham, we won’t be rushing.

"We could maybe look at the Deloitte, which is five weeks away.

"We'll keep him to the better tracks, the likes of here, Leopardstown, Naas, Navan or Fairyhouse."

The sponsors, Sky Bet, gave Any Second Now a quote of 9-1 for the Sky Bet Supreme at Cheltenham in March, a race for which they are Non Runner No Bet.
 
Just to stop any confusion, thats Mark Walsh talking about the winner Any second now and not Ruby.. i was confused for a second so just thought I'd add Doctorwu :D
 
Vautour said:
I still think Moon racer is a lot better than he has shown so far as a hurdler, and his hurdle form rightly puts him at the head of the betting. The 2015 bumper was a very strong race and if his hurdling technique has continued to improve when he gets to Cheltenham I think he will win. I hope so as he is my only AP bet looking really strong at the moment - on at 20s.

I was interested to see that Senewalk has still been given an entry as I thought he was getting packed away for next season. If he were to get there fully fit I would still hope he might be a strong player - always a fan of horses first run after a wind op as you can often see dramatic improvement and he looked classy on the flat in France. Anyone know anything more about what's happening with him - he's in a lot of my multiples!

Finally, great forum this - first time posting - some good serious talk whereas Betfair has become rather poor.
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Welcome on board Vautour and glad you like this forum. I find FJ members a lot more helpful than Betfair, you won't find any idiots here and any disputes are settled like adults and not kids throwing toys out the pram. :encouragement:

Re Moonracer, I am a huge fan of this horse and I think he is underrated and improving each run over hurdles. I've also backed him for the CH as well.
 
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Only just seen the Crack Mome race... without the mistake I do think he would have won. Lost all momentum at the last. Not too concerning that he couldn't recover and get 'back up' to win HOWEVER, Ruby was asking for effort with 2f to go and he rarely does that if he doesn't need to on a hurdler. Even if he would have cleared the last, would I be confident he was powering away from a previously unfancied horse in Any Second Now? I'm not convinced...

Therefore, I come back to Moon Racer and if his target was certain I would probably really fancy it! Horses like Melon and Cilaos Emery are shortening without running because others in the yard have run poorly and if it wasn't Mullins (which I know MUST be factored in) they would not be shortening without doing anything? I appreciate Moon Racer has also shortened but at least he has some good form in the bag....

Moon Racer in unbeaten over hurdles still, has course form proven by his bumper win, has shown battling qualities, is proven on the likely better ground, and a jockey who will be pumped for the best week in his career riding full of confidence (plus, even if he got left out the back, like he did inthe bumper, would you be tearing your slip up? absolutely not).... after today and at 5/1 NRNB, with the positive comments that Mullins made regarding Crack Mome, and unlucky or not, he is NOT standout, and wouldn't have been if he pinged the last, I am going in on Moon Racer again, win only. I think he is the best we've seen over hurdles so far, that hasn't had their bubble burst yet.
 
Well said Kev re Moonracer. He seems to always get the job done and if his target is yet to be decided then any horse entered in the CH deserves to be ahead of the Supreme market.
 
Agreed LR and Kev. Moon racer sets the standard
 
Welcome Vautour -

just noticed moonracer comes up in autospell as no-brainer
 
All season something's been putting me off backing Moon Racer, I was on Jenkins but right now MR looks the only option
 
Im in the same boat Ryan, could never have took 6s for moon racer 2 month ago but now it seems nothing else in the betting is really doing anything to secure their place there.
 
Yeah exactly, 2 months ago I was hoping that something would come up that would be able to beet MR but as you said nothing has, 5/1 NRNB is looking solid
 
I have only just started looking at the Festival races (trying to be disciplined). First reaction on the Supreme is that it doesn't look a very strong renewal. Moon Racer hasn't beaten anything over hurdles and, if it wasn't for his Bumper form, I can't see how he would be favourite. Bur, as everyone points out, who's going to beat him? Given the apparent weakness, it would make a lot of sense for JP to put one of his 4 year-olds in this race and both Defi Du Seuil and Charli Parcs look good enough. He can win the Triumph with the other one!
 
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