Interesting reading.
Just to rattle your cage, is the point that stands out there, than despite the absolute wealth of talent Henderson has, and some superb horses, only 3 have them have been under 4/1?
Is there not a line of thought that says he has super talented horses, that go on to be better after their novice hurdle campaign, and he doesn't get the best out of them?
His record as you've highlighted isn't bad, and I wouldn't avoid backing his horses anyway, but with all that talent, none of them seem to turn up in March as fancied beasts, which is the most surprising thing?
Of all his best horses over the last 5-10 years i'd say only Sprinter Sacre and Buveur D'Air would fit that category ("better after their novice hurdle campaign, and he doesn't get the best out of them?").
BvD the obvious one coming into the Supreme at 10/1 and then winning 2 CH's after. But he was priced up as the 3rd shortest price runner and he ran to that placing.
Sprinter Sacre was 11/1 in the Supreme and then was one of the best chasers of all time. But he was quite clearly a much much better chaser than hurdler. And again he ran to a place that his price suggested (3 lower prices horses than him finished 1st, 2nd, 4th)
Of his best / highest profile horses over the last 8 years to have run in the festival novice hurdle races...
Santini
Current Fav for the RSA. Yet to prove but huge potential
11/4F - 3rd in the Albert Bartlett
Altior
Best horse currently in training
4/1 2ndFav - 1st in the Supreme
Buveur D'Air
2 time Champion Hurdler
10/1 - 3rd in the Supreme
My Tent Or Yours
Runner up in 3 Champion Hurdles
15/8F - 2nd in the Supreme
Darlan
Was 9/2 for the CH and looked to have the beating of Rock on Ruby at Doncaster (who finished 2nd in the CH that year) but a fatal injury falling at the last
7/1 - 2nd in the Supreme
Spirit Son
Destroyed Cue Card by 13 lengths and Rock on Ruby by 8 lengths at Aintree but sadly lost his life
5/1 2ndFav - 2nd in the Supreme
Sprinter Sacre
3rd Highest rated chaser of all time
11/1 - 3rd in the Supreme
Simonsig
Won the following years Arkle, looked a superstar but was plagued with injuries there after
2/1F - 1st in the Neptune
Bobs Worth
Won an RSA, Gold Cup, Lexus and Hennessy
15/8F - 1st in the Albert Bartlett
Hard to say he didn't get the best out of any of them in that initial novice hurdle season.
He's arguably got the strongest hand in the novice hurdlers this year but we've already seen Pym, Rathhill, I Can't Explain (who I really liked) and Downtown Getaway (slightly harsh?) all disappoint to varying degrees. Claimintakinforgan the year before, Jenkins the year before that...
My view would be that his horses are usually overbet at the start of each season (which happens with most of the bigger trainers) BUT if come March he's got a well fancied runner they are very likely to justify their price and come very close or winning and it's then when i'd be reluctant to take them on.
Will be interesting to see what price and how fancied Champ is after Trials day and on Wednesday morning (a horse I haven't backed) likewise Angels Breath (a horse I have backed)
On the note of Henderson novice hurdlers...Dickie Diver, another potentially promising Point to pointer and another JP owned horse is running tomorrow at Chepstow, 2m3
