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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

We’re all sat here waiting to hear if Scooby knows whether Annamix has turned into a slow mudlark.........
 
Kevloaf said:
This season, will the 'trends' about number of runs just be blown away?

Mullins / Elliott / Henderson haven't got as many runs as perhaps they usually would into (what we assume) will be their best horses....

I don't think they'll cram extra races in BEFORE Cheltenham, so is it a year to ignore those types of trends, or back them?
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Been wondering that myself Kev , Spent a fair while on sunday looking into this race , and i have to say
Al dancer is one of the few that are anywhere near the 4-5 hurdles runs required .
F.w.i.w. , my top 5 ended up - Al dancer, Aramon, elixir d. n.,itchy feet ,quick grabim.
 
You can back him ballymore anyway with 365 if you want to. Hes unlikely to go there, but They go NRNB soon and he'll be half the price, so you can cash for profit.
 
Scooby91 said:
You can back him ballymore anyway with 365 if you want to. Hes unlikely to go there, but They go NRNB soon and he'll be half the price, so you can cash for profit.
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On that, some of them seem to shorten but the cash out just stays at "full stake"

It seems to be on ones that the target is unlikely.

Can't think of specifics, I'll try keep note.
 
Scooby91 said:
You can back him ballymore anyway with 365 if you want to. Hes unlikely to go there, but They go NRNB soon and he'll be half the price, so you can cash for profit.
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Be daft not to at 25-1,
added it last week
 
Kevloaf said:
On that, some of them seem to shorten but the cash out just stays at "full stake"

It seems to be on ones that the target is unlikely.

Can't think of specifics, I'll try keep note.
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That's because it's not full cash out until it's nrnb.
Ie quick grabim. His cashout will double in a weeks time.
 
Scooby91 said:
That's because it's not full cash out until it's nrnb.
Ie quick grabim. His cashout will double in a weeks time.
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I think it may be even more sophisticated than that, and probably takes quite a few things into account.
 
quevega said:
How's it work then ?
Cos you didn't seem sure this morning.
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I'll keep that to myself. As I don't want to lose it.

There's no secret it's common sense just need to know the ones to back.

This morning I simply asked how much it was for laurina.
 
Scooby91 said:
I'll keep that to myself. As I don't want to lose it.

There's no secret it's common sense just need to know the ones to back.

This morning I simply asked how much it was for laurina.
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Bull(cough)shit
 
quevega said:
Bull(cough)shit
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Yep complete bull shitter. Guesser of the game.

Just post all my bets beforehand with a return of 73k for a 19k outlay last festival.
Iv not a clue
 
Scooby91 said:
Yep complete bull shitter. Guesser of the game.

Just post all my bets beforehand with a return of 73k for a 19k outlay last festival.
Iv not a clue
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No one called you a complete bull shitter. Or a guesser of the game ?

But bullshit on this occasion, I think so.

If you know exactly how it works you wouldn't have been surprised about Laurina's cash out.

And if you were to suggest you really knew all along (how it works, so feigned surprise) but didn't want to alert anyone watching that you did, then that still means you bullshit on occasions.

And genuinely well done for last year, you must be a proud man or woman.
 
quevega said:
I like Thomas Darby too.
On him at 25s
Angels Breath at 33s (worth backing before or during race friday if they meet, if you've not already)
Quick Grabim 50s
Annamix 20s

Really liked Eldorado Allen but cashed him out after hearing of injury.
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I know you brought up being more selective and the "forum factor" which are valid points... but just thought I'd flesh out a little reasoning and why I feel quite comfortable at the moment despite having more darts than you (and probably more than anyone so far?)

I have the same 4 backed (at the same prices)plus:

Eldorado Allen 33s (now 20s) - not cashed out yet, not rushed into this though as he's not out for the season? ***and this is one that is just cashout for stake rather than profit despite 33/1 to 20/1***

Tornado Flyer at 25s (now 16s) - Could cash out for profit but given PP at 12s I'll hang on! Very happy to have this covered.

Battleoverdoyen 33s (now 16s) - Negligible profit on the cashout, if he wins the Lawlors, they won't push him out past 33/1 anyway even if he's not going to run.... in the unlikely event he doesn't show enough stamina in hat race, he may well be aimed at the Supreme. If he flops, he flops... still don't think he'd go higher than 33/1 though!

Seddon 33s (now 50s - woops) Cashout would be a 1 pt loss. He's 4th in on the betting on Friday behind Angel's Breath and Thomas Darby. He looks held on that last run but I will let him run and just see how the land lies after the race.

Aramon 65.0 - Looks busted. Trying to lay for 65.0 but fear that's 1 pt gone. Raya Time - is any race but have him slotted into this section at the moment.


I'm not blind to the fact I have 3 horses running in the same race on Friday, so it's likely two of them may be "busted" by the time it comes around. AS you also said though, the 365 factor makes "my" approach so, so appealing. It's so fun.... and although it may look like I'm backing everything, just a quick scroll through the 365 listnings and mentionming horses that people have mentioned here:

Downtown Getaway - cases made not backed
Elixir Du Nutz - I've made a case for - not backed
Al Dancer - cases made not backed - like him though
Didtheyleaveuoutto - cases made - not backed
Seven De Baune - case made - not backed
Pym - cases made, backed for a different race
Itchy Feet - Case made - not backed

Not knocking anyone who has mentioned any of them or likes them, just using it as an example that I don't agree with everybody and back them blindly
 
quevega said:
No one called you a complete bull shitter. Or a guesser of the game ?

But bullshit on this occasion, I think so.

If you know exactly how it works you wouldn't have been surprised about Laurina's cash out.

And if you were to suggest you really knew all along (how it works, so feigned surprise) but didn't want to alert anyone watching that you did, then that still means you bullshit on occasions.

And genuinely well done for last year, you must be a proud man or woman.
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It's common sense how it works. There's no secret. The only secret is the ones that will certainly profit from I'll give you 2.

Annamix ballymore.
Chante neige mares.

Fill your boots the night before cashout. Have a look at your returns.
 
It's common sense roughly how it works but as to the exact formula they use I'm not sure myself.

I think you're right that those two are very likely to be profitable for cash out in the coming weeks. And I acknowledge your techniques with this aspect of the market.

But they could also keel over in the yard at closutton and the news gets out whilst you're taking a shit or a nap.
 
What date was 365 NRNB last year for non champ races?
 
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