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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

:p that didnt take long

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">&#55357;&#57000; BREAKING NEWS &#55357;&#57000;<a href="https://twitter.com/NdeBoinville?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NdeBoinville</a> has confirmed two rides for the first day at <a href="https://twitter.com/CheltenhamRaces?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CheltenhamRaces</a> <br><br>&#55356;&#57286; Supreme<br>&#55357;&#56372; Angels Breath<br><br>&#55356;&#57286; <a href="https://twitter.com/unibet?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Unibet</a> Champion Hurdle<br>&#55357;&#56372; Brain Power<br><br>&#55357;&#56391; Click to read his reasoning &#55357;&#56391;<a href="https://t.co/tf0omgzder">https://t.co/tf0omgzder</a></p>— Unibet Racing (@UnibetRacing) <a href="https://twitter.com/UnibetRacing/status/1103603571831070720?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">7 March 2019</a></blockquote>
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A lot talked,:highly_amused: last night about this.
 
Andy Holding (oddschecker) hearing that all is not well with Fakir, he did say it was a rumour though, i'm worried now :grumpy:

Sorry if posted elsewhere.
 
Hoofit said:
Andy Holding (oddschecker) hearing that all is not well with Fakir, he did say it was a rumour though, i'm worried now :grumpy:

Sorry if posted elsewhere.
Click to expand...

Joseph said he was ok last night
so put to bed for now
 
Hoofit said:
You got a link to that mate ?
Click to expand...

No, but saw him say it on telly last night.
You'll have to trust me or trawl through last nights cheltenham preview thread. Betfair one
 
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Nothing was mentioned that would cause concern for Fakir in the preview last night.
 
wish davy was on board instead of nico not going to lie :/
 
Hardly a big negative Nico being on but would of preferred Davy.
 
Davy on Felix D now ? Rachel on Dancing on my own and Jack on VDH ?

Gardens of Babylon not out of this looking at RPRs but obviously Fakir more likely.
 
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Aramon looks like a really good shout for this based on form and a great price, anyone agree?
 
Nico de Boinville has confirmed he will partner Angels Breath in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival on Tuesday.

The leading jockey is in the privileged position of being able to choose between the well-touted Nicky Henderson-trained grey and his high-class stablemate Mister Fisher.

Angels Breath won the Kennel Gate at Ascot on his hurdling debut before being turned over at odds-on in the Dovecote at Kempton.

Mister Fisher was narrowly beaten on his first start over obstacles at Newbury, but has since impressed at Kempton on Boxing Day and in a Grade Two at Haydock.

De Boinville insists choosing between the two was a tough decision.

He told his Unibet blog: "I imagine it was a closer call than many will have thought, but I have decided to ride Angels Breath in the Supreme.

"I have an awful lot of time for Mister Fisher, and he has always shown us plenty at home.

"Crucially, he has translated that gallops ability to the track this season, with a victory over last weekend's Grade Two Kelso winner Rouge Vif at Kempton followed by such a success of his own when seeing off Bright Forecast in the Rossington Main at Haydock.

"I clearly know the runner-up very well, and he is Ballymore-bound, so it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest were Mister Fisher to run a huge race in the Festival-opener.

"But I feel I am right to keep the faith in Angels Breath, not that I thought he lost anything in defeat in the Dovecote, bar the winning prize on the day."
 
Have used my £20 risk free bet on Angels Breath just in case as I don’t have him in my book, but this rain is fantastic for fellow Klassical Dream backers
 
Axul said:
Aramon looks like a really good shout for this based on form and a great price, anyone agree?
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On proper good ground I would have said no but he appears to have the blend of experience/form age to win this.

Below are years winners and times

2007 Ebazyian 3m 56.1sec 0.4secs slower than Champion
2008 Captain Cee Bee 4m 6.45sec 1.65secs faster than Champion
2009 Go Native 4m 1sec 0.1secs slower than Champion
2010 Menorah 3m 56.52sec 2.72 slower than Champion
2011 Al Ferof 3m 52.1sec 1.61 faster than Champion
2012 Cinders And Ashes 3m 52.7 2.6secs slower than Champion
2013 Champagne Fever 3m 55.6 2.75 faster than Champion
2014 Vautour 3m 46.4sec 1.15secs slower than Champion
2015 Douvan 3m 47.5sec 2.5 faster than Champion
2016 Altior 3m 46.0sec 0.9sec slower than Champion
2017 Labaik 3m 53.2sec 2.9 slower than Champion
2018 Summerville Boy 4m 5.0sec same speed as Champion

Bold years are won by a horse who started career on flat, italics are champion hurdles that were won by horse who started on flat.

As you can see Labiak was nearly 3 seconds slower than BD both Melon & Labaik travelled beautiful into the straight as the pace was slower. Melon also profited from the slow pace in the Champion last year but was out battled.

Look at the 3 sub 350 Supremes in recent years all won by proper NH bred horses in Altior, Douvan & Vautour.

Champagne Fever was nearly 3seconds faster than the Champion that year and his stamina came into play. Al Ferof is a similar story, both those CH were won by the great Hurricane Fly who was beat in between when the Champion was run at nearly 3m50 flat.

The point I am eventually getting to here is I don't think there will be a rattling pace here the ground and quality is likely not going to allow such, therefore, I think Aramon, who for me is the best flat bred horse in the race might be too quick for the rest of them. I was a big KD fan when I thought the ground would be rattling but I don't think that is the case anymore.
 
Folski said:
On proper good ground I would have said no but he appears to have the blend of experience/form age to win this.

Below are years winners and times

2007 Ebazyian 3m 56.1sec 0.4secs slower than Champion
2008 Captain Cee Bee 4m 6.45sec 1.65secs faster than Champion
2009 Go Native 4m 1sec 0.1secs slower than Champion
2010 Menorah 3m 56.52sec 2.72 slower than Champion
2011 Al Ferof 3m 52.1sec 1.61 faster than Champion
2012 Cinders And Ashes 3m 52.7 2.6secs slower than Champion
2013 Champagne Fever 3m 55.6 2.75 faster than Champion
2014 Vautour 3m 46.4sec 1.15secs slower than Champion
2015 Douvan 3m 47.5sec 2.5 faster than Champion
2016 Altior 3m 46.0sec 0.9sec slower than Champion
2017 Labaik 3m 53.2sec 2.9 slower than Champion
2018 Summerville Boy 4m 5.0sec same speed as Champion

Bold years are won by a horse who started career on flat, italics are champion hurdles that were won by horse who started on flat.

As you can see Labiak was nearly 3 seconds slower than BD both Melon & Labaik travelled beautiful into the straight as the pace was slower. Melon also profited from the slow pace in the Champion last year but was out battled.

Look at the 3 sub 350 Supremes in recent years all won by proper NH bred horses in Altior, Douvan & Vautour.

Champagne Fever was nearly 3seconds faster than the Champion that year and his stamina came into play. Al Ferof is a similar story, both those CH were won by the great Hurricane Fly who was beat in between when the Champion was run at nearly 3m50 flat.

The point I am eventually getting to here is I don't think there will be a rattling pace here the ground and quality is likely not going to allow such, therefore, I think Aramon, who for me is the best flat bred horse in the race might be too quick for the rest of them. I was a big KD fan when I thought the ground would be rattling but I don't think that is the case anymore.
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I think it's the pace they go on the ground (whatever that may be) that will matter. Not the ground.
If it's a strong pace then I'd not fancy Aramon at all.
And it's likely to be ran at a good quick gallop, it normally is.
 
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