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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

monkfish said:
You dont think Felix Desjy and Elixir De Nutz will set a quick pace?
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No I don't, EDN set a sub 3m50 (just by .1sec) back in Oct on ground which probably had a bit of firm in it and 3m 51.2 the second time again on proper good ground. He is going to have to do so now on good to soft ground at worst and carry 7lb more. Gordon has said himself FD is not a speed horse just a galloper, I'd imagine Russell will be on and will probably have last years Arkle in the back of his mind.
 
Folski said:
No I don't, EDN set a sub 3m50 (just by .1sec) back in Oct on ground which probably had a bit of firm in it and 3m 51.2 the second time again on proper good ground. He is going to have to do so now on good to soft ground at worst and carry 7lb more. Gordon has said himself FD is not a speed horse just a galloper, I'd imagine Russell will be on and will probably have last years Arkle in the back of his mind.
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Felix went 19 seconds faster than Vision D'honnuer when he won the moscow flyer. He's quick enough alright.
 
quevega said:
I think it's the pace they go on the ground (whatever that may be) that will matter. Not the ground.
If it's a strong pace then I'd not fancy Aramon at all.
And it's likely to be ran at a good quick gallop, it normally is.
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I would agree 100% with that bit in bold, I don't think they are going to go fast enough out in front, I have stated above why.
 
quevega said:
Felix went 19 seconds faster than Vision D'honnuer when he won the moscow flyer. He's quick enough alright.
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That he did but the time was well above standard, he was about 2 seconds quicker than Vautour who won on soft/heavy compared to ground that was deemed too hard for most trainers. Who do you fancy Quevega?
 
Folski said:
That he did but the time was well above standard, he was about 2 seconds quicker than Vautour who won on soft/heavy compared to ground that was deemed too hard for most trainers. Who do you fancy Quevega?
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None of em, it's too trappy.
I've backed about 6 that still hold as we speak but not aramon.
Don'tlike flat breds in general for this.

I know you touched on the pace not being strong enough in your last paragraph (in your opening argument), but it's not convincing enough to just say that's what you think will happen, without a reason why. "ground and quality is likely not going to allow such"

They can go "too quick" on any ground.
And there looks like their are horse's in here that want to get on with it.
I'd say it's more likely they go quick than not.
Which is why NH breds have an excellent record in the race, wins and places (last dozen years or so).
 
At the Christmas meeting, Aramon ran 3.6 seconds faster than Sir Erec carrying 10lb more. Triplicate set a fast pace that day and Aramon had no trouble going with it and then accelerating past Sancta Simona. He will want a fast consistent pace rather than the slow, slow, quick, quick, slow, quick of the Royal Bond.

I can't find confirmation anywhere but I've read that the UK handicapper has Aramon top rated on 154.
 
So baring the two front runners we should be looking at horses who can travel strongly in a quick pace in behind on soft ground with a turn of foot and can stay up the hill.

Al Dancer?
Angels Breath?
Klassical Dream?
Mister Fisher?
 
archie said:
At the Christmas meeting, Aramon ran 3.6 seconds faster than Sir Erec carrying 10lb more. Triplicate set a fast pace that day and Aramon had no trouble going with it and then accelerating past Sancta Simona. He will want a fast consistent pace rather than the slow, slow, quick, quick, slow, quick of the Royal Bond.

I can't find confirmation anywhere but I've read that the UK handicapper has Aramon top rated on 154.
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Soft ground a concern Archie? Plenty of rain today.
 
quevega said:
None of em, it's too trappy.
I've backed about 6 that still hold as we speak but not aramon.
Don'tlike flat breds in general for this.

I know you touched on the pace not being strong enough in your last paragraph (in your opening argument), but it's not convincing enough to just say that's what you think will happen, without a reason why. "ground and quality is likely not going to allow such"

They can go "too quick" on any ground.
And there looks like their are horse's in here that want to get on with it.
I'd say it's more likely they go quick than not.
Which is why NH breds have an excellent record in the race, wins and places (last dozen years or so).
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I am in the same boat do not like anything major for this have KD at 25/1 MF at 33s but do not love their chances (of turning up for one of them). I have taken a stance on Aramon and at 14/1 with WH I think it's worth a go.
 
monkfish said:
So baring the two front runners we should be looking at horses who can travel strongly in a quick pace in behind on soft ground with a turn of foot and can stay up the hill.

Al Dancer?
Angels Breath?
Klassical Dream?
Mister Fisher?
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All four more likely to benefit than aramon IMO.
Maybe not angels breath.

To be fair, Ive no firm opinion, just like chatting about it.
It's wide open, but without stating the obvious, the pace will be vital to who will flourish or not.
 
Thank god for Skybet's offer as this is a minefield.

I had landed on Elixir, but no confidence in that, i think he's had races run to suit him and probably isn't as good as his "form" suggests.
 
I wouldn't worry about the ground until I knew what it was. I think he'll be fine on g/s.
 
Old Vic said:
Davy on Felix D now ? Rachel on Dancing on my own and Jack on VDH ?

Gardens of Babylon not out of this looking at RPRs but obviously Fakir more likely.
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Surely the outcome of Sir Erec 's problem is that Fakir will be kept for the Triumph. They might have 8 days to go but only 3 until the Supreme declarations. In the circumstances Gardens of Babylon looks well overpriced at 40/1 NRNB for Supreme.
 
Angel's Breath is going off favourite for this. EVERY day for the past 2 weeks it has been blue for him, he is 10/3 with Ladbrokes (shortest price, can still get 5's but won't be long I suspect, only 2 left)!!!

It's just a constant flow of support. I'm not sure what he's doing at home but christ, it must be good.
 
Old Vic said:
Surely the outcome of Sir Erec 's problem is that Fakir will be kept for the Triumph. They might have 8 days to go but only 3 until the Supreme declarations. In the circumstances Gardens of Babylon looks well overpriced at 40/1 NRNB for Supreme.
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That was my initial thought but if you take O'Brien at face value - he doesn't sound that bothered - there is no reason to move Fakir. His chance of winning the Supreme hasn't changed.
 
kinloch brae said:
That was my initial thought but if you take O'Brien at face value - he doesn't sound that bothered - there is no reason to move Fakir. His chance of winning the Supreme hasn't changed.
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If he is fine by Sunday then yes and exchange doesn’t see GOB here.

Fakir and everyone else will have a better chance in Triumph if Sir Erec isn’t there.
 
Tom O'Brien on Elixir for fuck sake. Tizzard really pisses me off. :sorrow:
 
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