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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

Intriguing race today and the two to take out of it for me are the 3rd and 4th.

Quick Grabim - ridden with huge confidence, pretty sure at any moment Ruby thought he could go and take the race, except he made a complete hash of 2 out (crucial stage). This put him on the back foot which is a nightmare in a race that becomes a sprint to the line. Finished the race extremely well and is one that I immediately thought to myself... ‘back that one next time out’. I can’t help but think WPM has better Supreme Novice candidates and perhaps Quick Grabim is one to pick up a couple of nice Irish novice race without being a ‘champion’, but 50s is TOO BIG. Definitely an overreaction and I can’t help but take a bit, knowing you can always cash out after the Royal Bond if necessary.

Choungaya - I loved the way this horse jumped a hurdle. I’ve got to hold my hands up and say that over the first couple of obstacles I thought I was watching Felix Desjy (got my Giggi colours mixed up) and was thinking “really like the way this horse jumps”... then I realised I was watching the 50/1 outsider. Followed him throughout the race and he went straight into the notebook. Skewed the last when sandwiched between the first and second but stayed on just fine to hold on for 3rd. Interestingly he made his debut over hurdles last year before switching to bumpers, suggesting they wanted to save him for a novice hurdle campaign this year. He ran very creditably in 3 bumpers before winning his maiden in October beating Monbeg Worldwide in the process (who subsequently came out and won last week). He’s by Walk in the Park (there’s a few of those that aren’t bad!), is in good hands with Joseph, probably wasn’t suited by the sprint finish today and I’m intrigued to see how he fares next time out with a view to better things. If anyone is inclined to watch the race back have a look at how he negotiates a hurdle, can be a huge advantage at Cheltenham.
 
Interesting VF, i'd imagine Choungaya might be one for handicaps though. He was well touted a few years back when Kirk bought him, but hasn't quite lived up to that over bumpers. Much improved over hurdles though.
 
quevega said:
50-1 is an over reaction so I've cashed and bet again, hopefully he's not injured.
It looked a muddling pace and reminded me of one or two supreme trials last year that ended up as misleading form. Like when Sharjah won/fell.
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I reckon this over reaction is also a result of their cash out offer. They've done the same with Felix Desjy which looks completely fair of course, although significantly bigger than the 33s pushed out elswhere. By pushing out the price that much they can ensure that those already on will have to take a reasonable hit on their cash out.
 
jack1092 said:
Interesting VF, i'd imagine Choungaya might be one for handicaps though. He was well touted a few years back when Kirk bought him, but hasn't quite lived up to that over bumpers. Much improved over hurdles though.
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Yep you’re probably right Jack, just thought his performance was worthy of a mention considering that he’s likely to be overlooked in future markets but is clearly talented.
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
I reckon this over reaction is also a result of their cash out offer. They've done the same with Felix Desjy which looks completely fair of course, although significantly bigger than the 33s pushed out elswhere. By pushing out the price that much they can ensure that those already on will have to take a reasonable hit on their cash out.
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Fascinating point that I hadn’t thought about! Frustrates those that backed pre race and want to cash out, but gives potentially great value to those prepared to forgive the run and take a chance at inflated odds. Interesting
 
Obviously still plenty of horses to come out and a long, long way to go, but the early opposition have left a lot to be desired.

Annamix would not have to be special at this rate, in fact, no horse would.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Obviously still plenty of horses to come out and a long, long way to go, but the early opposition have left a lot to be desired.

Annamix would not have to be special at this rate, in fact, no horse would.
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Agreed.

At the present time, looks a poor crop...
 
Plenty of time yet, a lot of yards are behind with their horses because of the weather....I am sure there are plenty in the usual stables that haven't come near a racetrack yet.
 
May well be the case, but those that were touted pre-season that you'd struggle to make a case for now are in no particular order (appreciating some may want further anyway)

Pym
Felix Desjy
Sebastopol
Umndeni
Acey Milan
Mister Fisher
 
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Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
May well be the case, but those that were touted pre-season that you'd struggle to make a case for now are in no particular order (appreciating some may want further anyway)

Pym
Felix Desjy
Sebastopol
Umndeni
Acey Milan
Mister Fisher
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From today's Henderson stable tour:

Mister Fisher
One of our brighter bumper horses last season, he just looked like he needed it on his hurdles debut last week. He took a blow at the second last because, I think, he finds his work too easy. He can go anywhere to win a maiden and is very capable.

Pym
I was pleased his run at Ascot recently, when he just lost it at the second last. He had, however, won well at Chepstow before that and I suspect he might want 2m 4f now.
 
Epatante added to the supreme on betfair, lets see if i can get 40/1 matched
 
£2 matched in first 3 mins of me posting up, fools!!!! lol
 
I would have gone higher if I was you.
Pretty sure you'd get matched at a lot bigger odds.
Pretty sure Mcmanus don't tell his trainers too much in terms of dictating targets.
He's had very highly rated novice juveniles in recent years that on ratings, with allowances would have had a great chance in the supreme, on paper. But they don't seem to have gone for it. Mcmanus ran three good juveniles in 2017 triumph, but nothing of note in the supreme (from memory) correct me if I'm wrong.
Even when Henderson had no real Supreme horse last year (and the race looked open), and We have a dream was still fit, there was no real serious talk of Apple's going for the supreme.
I personally think they ought to try it, as the allowances are really handy if you've got a real good one, which she may turn out to be.
 
3 figures, wow im going to be rich!!!! ok taken it off, ill see what happens next few days. Cheers lads
 
Did Gordon give any explanation for Felix's bad run? The way he talked about the horse before it ran suggested that he held the horse in the highest regard. Surely it must be better than it ran on Sunday.
 
James Joseph said:
Did Gordon give any explanation for Felix's bad run? The way he talked about the horse before it ran suggested that he held the horse in the highest regard. Surely it must be better than it ran on Sunday.
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Better than Sunday has to be 'a given' ...

But ....

Seems hugely over rated. He's disappointed 3 runs in a row now. Too keen in the champion bumper (far too much made of him being a Gigginstown runner in it) ... too keen over hurdles. I don't see WHY he'd progress into a top two Mile novice hurdler myself.

No idea what explanation he's given though ... 50/1 could make me look silly but I won't be on
 
Kevloaf said:
Better than Sunday has to be 'a given' ...

But ....

Seems hugely over rated. He's disappointed 3 runs in a row now. Too keen in the champion bumper (far too much made of him being a Gigginstown runner in it) ... too keen over hurdles. I don't see WHY he'd progress into a top two Mile novice hurdler myself.

No idea what explanation he's given though ... 50/1 could make me look silly but I won't be on
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Never a fan of Felix myself.
The Champion Bumper run was misleading (some thinking he was entered with a real chance)

I saw it a bit like a Grumpy old King who you know doesn't like you saying you can sleep with one of his daughters.
(you know you're probably gonna get the fat ugly one)
 
Sorry if this has already been put up but just seen Annamix has an entry for the Royalbond.
 
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