If I was Dai Walters . There's no doubt I'd run angels breath in the ballymore. You've got a 2 miler who's just hacked up. Angels is a ptp winner. You know for a fact he gets the trip of the ballymore.
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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019
- Thread starter Marty973
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If I was Dai Walters . There's no doubt I'd run angels breath in the ballymore. You've got a 2 miler who's just hacked up. Angels is a ptp winner. You know for a fact he gets the trip of the ballymore.
JackieMoon33
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Never been a Shantou progeny victorious in the Supreme either. All his best offspring need further.
NH won't want that. When he's already got the winner.
He won't want that at all. But if your the owner. You do as you please if you have 2. His call.
Just a interesting statistic for Al Dancer backers.
The Betfair hurdle has been ran 45 times, of those 45 winners, 0 have gone on to win the Supreme in the same season.
How many of the 45 winners were al dancer?
Every horse is an individual. Makes no sense to group horses together. Who aren't the same horse.
Quevega
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That last sentence is genius:highly_amused:
But that aside.
There's been better renewals of the betfair hurdle and novices carrying bigger weights that have been beaten in the supreme.
However, what you tried to say is quite correct.
The stat don't mean much really.
Innoko
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Al Dancer won easy but he did get the perfect run around. He was expected to win off 141 just as Kalashnikov did. Price has gone so I'll let him win.
JackieMoon33
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Quevega
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Looking at today's racing.
It's interesting that Al Dancer is now favourite (4-1 generally) having won the betfair handicap earlier off a weight of 141.
But Grand Sancy beat horses rated 150+ off levels (gving 2lb to sceau royal rated 154) in a grade 2 in open company as a five year old.
He's still available at 16-1 general or 14-1 NRNB.
And others with related form are still relatively big prices also, like Itchy Feet, Elixir De Nutz etc.
This tells me that there is a bias, and this is historically bookie led.
The Betfair hurdle is the last big and most valuable hurdle handicap for your supreme types and unexposed novices run in it more often than not.
Even though there is nothing to say Al Dancer will not be competitive in the Supreme.
He's not a value price at anything in single figures.
Bookies are mugging us off, and have done for many years with this same gameplan.
Don't mean he won't win though.
It's interesting that Al Dancer is now favourite (4-1 generally) having won the betfair handicap earlier off a weight of 141.
But Grand Sancy beat horses rated 150+ off levels (gving 2lb to sceau royal rated 154) in a grade 2 in open company as a five year old.
He's still available at 16-1 general or 14-1 NRNB.
And others with related form are still relatively big prices also, like Itchy Feet, Elixir De Nutz etc.
This tells me that there is a bias, and this is historically bookie led.
The Betfair hurdle is the last big and most valuable hurdle handicap for your supreme types and unexposed novices run in it more often than not.
Even though there is nothing to say Al Dancer will not be competitive in the Supreme.
He's not a value price at anything in single figures.
Bookies are mugging us off, and have done for many years with this same gameplan.
Don't mean he won't win though.
Morley Street
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Very pleased with Al Dancer today and believe he is now rightly at the head of the market for this. On a line through Lisp, Grand Sancy and the like have a lot to find IMO. It is only fairly recently that the Betfair has been targeted by the top novices, although I’m old enough to remember Make a Stand winning it and going on to win the Champion. Anyway, if not this year, I feel that it’s only a matter of time until the winner goes on to win the Supreme. The Champ form has taken a few knocks today and I could see Angels now being rerouted. If so, Klassical Dream the only real danger for me.
Aramon is better. People have him down as a good ground horse. I think he hated the ground at Leopardstown didn't change off his off fore. Would have beat KD comfortably if he ran straight.
If Nicky Henderson targets the 2m novice at Huntington on Thursday and angels breath puts in the type of performance we think he's capable of then you'll have a 5/2, 3-1 favourite of the supreme who baring his point has only ran over 2miles. Nickys making comparisons with altior, you'd be a brave man to reroute him to the 2m 5 race and rely on a betfair hurdle winner for the supreme.
Who would need to be brave the trainer or the owner? the owner has already said he wants to keep them apart. If you were the owner you'd want to win them both.
He's also said before that he wouldn't mind havin them in the same race and after the betfair he said he was thinking about the longer race for al dancer before he was keen today. I think you'd be a brave owner. Could end up with nothing. The way Henderson raves about his horse, 2 miler, altior etc I'd be taking his advice and hoping he'd be the next big thing over 2 miles like he's managed buveur d'air and altior.
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Aramon is my biggest bet in this race, and IMO he's the best from an Irish perspective so happy to back him in at 12/1
Al Dancer I backed at 12/1 after he romp home at Cheltenham. I went in and back him at 12/1 for the betfair hurdle.... was cancelled, and then stupidly didnt back him at 3/1 even thought I thought he was a supreme horse - LESSONS LEARNT!!! The price put me off... I dont know why it just did!
I think there's more to come from Al Dancer. Wasn't whipped in his previous 3 starts and was only whipped when going away from the field today.
I think Al Dancer will go very close, but I think Aramon is the one
Angel Breathe, although sitting on him at 24/1, is a horse that isnt really bred for a race like this, and I'm really concerned that they havent been able to get a prep run into him, appears he's recently had the flu jab so not even sure he'll be 100% for this race despite it being another 3 weeks. In addition, he appears to be a horse who needs certain conditions. I have a feeling Angels will be pulled out of the festival
At bigger odds, Itchy Feet has to be mentioned, and I've already backed at 40/1. Has beaten Grand Sancy and went close again the Tolworth winner whilst giving 5lbs at CD!! Horse wants good ground, and could be a unexposed here, aswell as being unrated
For me, my shortlist is as followed (in order)
1) Aramon
2) Itchy Feet
3) Al Dancer
:very_drunk: