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Stayers Hurdle 2018

Innoko

A very good friend of mine is a pro cricket punter, he always turns the sound off when watching/punting cricket because he says his views can be distorted by what the commentators say.
In racing terms this equates to betting with what you see, not what connections tell you.
You can generally tell if a horse is better suited to 2m, 2.4m or 3m, Tizzard has confused punters this year definitely butthe difference with your Mullins analogy is that Ricci, in particular, rarely runs his against each other so even though you think one of his could be a cracking JLT bet if he already has one for that then yours will end up in the Arkle, RSA or Grand Annual....
 
Gave my view on Farmer Tizzard in previous thread , guy has seriously lost the plot.Horse is decent , buy he no Buveur Dair nor is Tizz patch on Nicky Henderson.
 
I think the commentating thing is literally the same in racing too. Every time I miss the racing (which isn't that often) but for example this weekend just passed, I hadn't watched any of the racing. I was able to read comments on here, and the racing post reports and the commentry back in places too.
I was staggered at one horse in particular when I watched it back, because it was NO WHERE NEAR as good as had been made out in the media and anywhere. It'd shortened for the festival and I couldn't believe the praise the commentator was giving, to what was in fairness a decent, but workmanlike performance!

Watching replays without the commentry is an absolute MUST when look back at a race. I'd rather be wrong with my own opinion than get sucked in to the auto-praise, which is why I got so frustrated with myself about Finian's Oscar this season.
 
Istabraq said:
Innoko

A very good friend of mine is a pro cricket punter, he always turns the sound off when watching/punting cricket because he says his views can be distorted by what the commentators say.
In racing terms this equates to betting with what you see, not what connections tell you.
You can generally tell if a horse is better suited to 2m, 2.4m or 3m, Tizzard has confused punters this year definitely butthe difference with your Mullins analogy is that Ricci, in particular, rarely runs his against each other so even though you think one of his could be a cracking JLT bet if he already has one for that then yours will end up in the Arkle, RSA or Grand Annual....
Click to expand...

No Arsenal fans on here i hope , will never win prem with Wenger in control lol
 
Istabraq said:
Innoko

A very good friend of mine is a pro cricket punter, he always turns the sound off when watching/punting cricket because he says his views can be distorted by what the commentators say.
In racing terms this equates to betting with what you see, not what connections tell you.
You can generally tell if a horse is better suited to 2m, 2.4m or 3m, Tizzard has confused punters this year definitely but the difference with your Mullins analogy is that Ricci, in particular, rarely runs his against each other so even though you think one of his could be a cracking JLT bet if he already has one for that then yours will end up in the Arkle, RSA or Grand Annual....
Click to expand...

Absolutely correct.

My analogy was meaning to say that I feel Tizzard gets away with saying what he does, a lot more than most. Willie Mullins rightly or wrongly seems to have a more sinister look about him (I'm not suggesting he is). Whereas Tizzard comes across as the 'nice guy'.

Most probably not getting my view across very well here :highly_amused:
 
Innoko said:
Absolutely correct.

My analogy was meaning to say that I feel Tizzard gets away with saying what he does, a lot more than most. Willie Mullins rightly or wrongly seems to have a more sinister look about him (I'm not suggesting he is). Whereas Tizzard comes across as the 'nice guy'.

Most probably not getting my view across very well here :highly_amused:
Click to expand...

Innoko,
Don't hold back, say what you really mean about Tizzard :devilish::highly_amused:
 
Kevloaf said:
I was staggered at one horse in particular when I watched it back, because it was NO WHERE NEAR as good as had been made out in the media and anywhere. It'd shortened for the festival and I couldn't believe the praise the commentator was giving, to what was in fairness a decent, but workmanlike performance!./QUOTE]

Which horse was that Kev?
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Agree about F.Oscar , I had backed him well for the arkle , with a J.l.t saver , & then a very small second saver for the R.S.A,
but I've left him well alone after the sandown run . Not on my Radar anymore, whichever race
he goes for.
 
Not on my radar either BC. No point in throwing good money after bad imo.
 
I don't know who I do fancy for this, but I do know that I definitely don't fancy Finian's Oscar
 
robith said:
I don't know who I do fancy for this, but I do know that I definitely don't fancy Finian's Oscar
Click to expand...

I kept trying to talk myself out of backing FO for this, but then I look back to last year with Buveur D'Air switching mid season from Chasing back to Hurdles (this is after he won both his chase starts too) and think it could be similar for Finians Oscar. I just think FO is a class act over hurdles but was somewhat scared of the bigger obstacles.

I've got involved at 10's NRNB with Hills, just for a bit of interest as I think this is a wide open race!

Also got: Sam Spinner (12's), UNWIMH (10's) and now FO (10's NRNB).
 
Had a bit of a check where I am at in this race... whenever I don't have a strong opinion (which I did for this - that UNWIMH or NC had it between them - and now don't as NC isn't here and UNWIMH looks to have regressed) I end up just trying to make a profit from the race, regardless of who wins... bit of a rescue job :)

The only dangers to me making a profit at the moment are:

Penhill - hadn't backed at 10/1 as I knew he was injured and haven't reacted to the news he's back in training yet. 8/1 NRNB available looks short though consdering UNWIMH as the previous years Albert Bartlett winner had been 25/1 at the start of the season and Penhill has never been higher than 12s (or even 10s?)

L'Ami Serge - I think I have a free bet on that wouild leave me down for the race even if it won - however, having a prep over fences for the stayers hurdle seems incredibly strange to me, and I don't like the horses attitude and as much as I respect the trainer, I am in no rush at 12/1 to get involved.

Wholestone - I have backed for small stakes at 91.0 on the exchanges. I do like this horse quite a lot, although definitely think he'd be stretched to win it, he could hit the frame, so I might add the top priced 16/1 with WH (as I can't see any other target anyway)

Apple's Jade - Might as well mention her, I would not be in profit for the race if she won this race and I won't be covering it.

Thomas Campbell - Not interested in backing at all.... looks short at this level to me.

Let's Dance - Wouldn't give her any chance of running now Limini is out

Colin's Sister - Not a good enough mare to challenge in this company - well held by at least 5 horses o nher last 2 runs.

Jezki - Well beaten in the race last year, good FTO but well held since. Not interested at the price of 33/1

Cole Harden - Has been back chasing again and isn't good enough anymore

Baupaume - Couldn't back a 5yo in this, looks held anyway and wasn't the best horse of his generation which I'd want any 5yo to have been...

Augusta Kate - won't run here and wouldn't be above a Grade 2 animal anyway


----- got everything else already for a profit with the best winners being Sam Spinner, The World's End, UNWIMH and Barters Hill.

Not particularly worried about any that I've listed though... anyone particularly strong on any of them?
 
Viking Flagship said:
What about Supasundae Kev?
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Covered Supasundae VF, he's just not one of my best 4 results :encouragement: - I don't fancy Barters Hill particularly or UNWIMH anymore but they're two of the best at this stage

I'd only made between 2 and 8 pts profit depending on non runners (plus any each way returns but I don't count those)

**It isn't that clear above in the post above, but I have a profit if any of these win:
Sam Spinner,
Supasundae,
UNWIMH,
The New One,
Yanworth, NRNB
Finian's Oscar, (NRNB and any race bets)
The World's End,
Beer Goggles,
Bacardys, (Any race)
Lil Rockerfeller,
Tin Soldier,
Robin Roe,
Cilaos Emery,
Vroum Vroum Mag
Sutton Place
Presenting Percy

a small loss if it is won by
Wholestone,
L'ami Serge
Apple's Jade

a big loss if
Penhill,
Thomas Campbell
Let's Dance
Colin's Sister
Jezki
Cole Harden,
Bapaume
Augusta Kate
Any other horse....

So Penhill and Wholestone the only two I'm really concerned about at this stage.

I can't imagine me getting a strong opinion in the race now, having been wrong initially - some won't be a fan of my position here but all comments are welcome :devilish:


Just had a full on debate with my mate about my position in this race. He's said its pathetic and I've got no opinion on racing and shouldn't be allowed to bet - he'd rather lose or stick his money in an ISA. Fair points? :highly_amused:
 
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I’m in a similar situation and have found this race hard to compile a book for, much like the Supreme. Penhill, Supasundae and Wholestone I haven’t got covered, and will likely include 1/2 of those each way before the off. Hopefully we see Penhill before as we’ve no idea how he’s trained on. Probably go with Supasundae if good, Wholestone if soft
 
Kev - we all bet in different ways and no one way is correct.

For me, I would get no enjoyment in doing a book for each and every festival race. Nor would I have the time!

However, if it works for you, and you get enjoyment out of it, stick with it I say:)
 
Kevloaf said:
Covered Supasundae VF, he's just not one of my best 4 results :encouragement: - I don't fancy Barters Hill particularly or UNWIMH anymore but they're two of the best at this stage

I'd only made between 2 and 8 pts profit depending on non runners (plus any each way returns but I don't count those)

**It isn't that clear above in the post above, but I have a profit if any of these win:
Sam Spinner,
Supasundae,
UNWIMH,
The New One,
Yanworth, NRNB
Finian's Oscar, (NRNB and any race bets)
The World's End,
Beer Goggles,
Bacardys, (Any race)
Lil Rockerfeller,
Tin Soldier,
Robin Roe,
Cilaos Emery,
Vroum Vroum Mag
Sutton Place
Presenting Percy

a small loss if it is won by
Wholestone,
L'ami Serge
Apple's Jade

a big loss if
Penhill,
Thomas Campbell
Let's Dance
Colin's Sister
Jezki
Cole Harden,
Bapaume
Augusta Kate
Any other horse....

So Penhill and Wholestone the only two I'm really concerned about at this stage.

I can't imagine me getting a strong opinion in the race now, having been wrong initially - some won't be a fan of my position here but all comments are welcome :devilish:


Just had a full on debate with my mate about my position in this race. He's said its pathetic and I've got no opinion on racing and shouldn't be allowed to bet - he'd rather lose or stick his money in an ISA. Fair points? :highly_amused:
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If got a book myself but not quite as safe as that :). As I still like to win big if I hit it right. And I don't mind losing if I'm not.

NC 7/1 rip.
Unwimh 9/1
Sam spinner 20/1 ew
Supasundae 20/1 ew 14/1 ew
Bacardys 33/1 ew
Finians Oscar any race 8/1 :grumpy:
Jers girl 360.0
La bague au roi 460.0
Vroum vroum mag 320.0
Let's dance 100.0
Tin soldier 460.0
Thistlecrack 55.0 38.0 (out)
Sutton place 213.0
 
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Garrison Savannah said:
Kev - we all bet in different ways and no one way is correct.

For me, I would get no enjoyment in doing a book for each and every festival race. Nor would I have the time!

However, if it works for you, and you get enjoyment out of it, stick with it I say:)
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I wasn't planning on for this race... and don't for every race... I enjoy it for some races but wouldn't be able to afford to do it for all haha

Ive still got the option to lay off too closer to the time of I did form a strong opinion too

That's the plan anyway!

I have said before that the balance between enjoying the gambling and making a profit can vary for me... at the moment I don't think any horse is priced to make me get too excited though if I didn't have a book.

It is safe though in this case... I have some much more impressive and some worse ... but I like to be as open as I can
 
Kevloaf said:
Covered Supasundae VF, he's just not one of my best 4 results :encouragement: - I don't fancy Barters Hill particularly or UNWIMH anymore but they're two of the best at this stage

I'd only made between 2 and 8 pts profit depending on non runners (plus any each way returns but I don't count those)

**It isn't that clear above in the post above, but I have a profit if any of these win:
Sam Spinner,
Supasundae,
UNWIMH,
The New One,
Yanworth, NRNB
Finian's Oscar, (NRNB and any race bets)
The World's End,
Beer Goggles,
Bacardys, (Any race)
Lil Rockerfeller,
Tin Soldier,
Robin Roe,
Cilaos Emery,
Vroum Vroum Mag
Sutton Place
Presenting Percy

a small loss if it is won by
Wholestone,
L'ami Serge
Apple's Jade

a big loss if
Penhill,
Thomas Campbell
Let's Dance
Colin's Sister
Jezki
Cole Harden,
Bapaume
Augusta Kate
Any other horse....

So Penhill and Wholestone the only two I'm really concerned about at this stage.

I can't imagine me getting a strong opinion in the race now, having been wrong initially - some won't be a fan of my position here but all comments are welcome :devilish:


Just had a full on debate with my mate about my position in this race. He's said its pathetic and I've got no opinion on racing and shouldn't be allowed to bet - he'd rather lose or stick his money in an ISA. Fair points? :highly_amused:
Click to expand...

I'd rather buy bitcoin :highly_amused:
 
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