September ‘24 Yankee

[ComplyOrDie]

Would have to be a weak renewal for him to win imo. He’s also very ground dependent if heavy isn’t in the description I would put a line through him. Was there a reason he didn’t run at Cheltenham last season? I honestly can’t remember if he’d had a setback or not?

I thought this initially but on bare ratings he's got every chance with a little improvement, given that low 150's (at the time of the race) seems to be enough to be there or thereabouts.

 

[Guinness Village]

Adrian heskin. He’s gone now. NH chase a distinct opportunity

 

[archie]

From my experience, very few connections target the NH Chase in September. Most like to think that they have a potential G! horse while a few prefer to massage their handicap mark. A race best left alone until the stable tours imo.

 

[Kautostar]

Why didn’t he run in the race last season? I don’t recall an injury and he then ran at punchestown. If connections didn’t fancy it last season why would they target the nh chase this time around? He could also be targeted at one of the nationals. Bring in ground concerns too I’d want bigger than 12/1 with so many question marks about him.

 

[Runragged]

Why didn’t he run in the race last season? I don’t recall an injury and he then ran at punchestown. If connections didn’t fancy it last season why would they target the nh chase this time around? He could also be targeted at one of the nationals. Bring in ground concerns too I’d want bigger than 12/1 with so many question marks about him.

If he ran in the race last year he would of done so on the back of just 2 chase runs which is very unlike Elliott who likes to have plenty of experience for his runners in the race. The Punchestown Grade 1 run at the end of the season stinks of wanting to keep his novice status for this year and the logical reason would be to target a novice race such as the NH Chase as he has done several times in the past with 2nd season novices. I'm not a big fan of the horse and as has been said, he is/was considered a "winter horse" so could be ground dependant. His price to me is fair without screaming out to be backed at this stage with, like so many races, you fear what Willie Mullins may end up running in the race.

 

[Min The Merciless]

I know we have the CH covered with Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth already but with the possibility that Willie does go for a penalty kick in the MH with Lossiemouth and any lingering concerns re Constitution Hill (fingers crossed all good there), would it not be wise to maybe cover State Man in one of these? Am well aware if all 3 run in the CH that's two definite losers on the yankees so more than happy to be shot down but just thought I'd throw it out there...also apologies if this has been done before on one of the other yankee threads

 

[SeanRock]

I think you're right if Emmet and JP decide to target that race with him. He's still an under rated horse imo.

Agree with you both on Corbetts Cross’s price for Ryanair. Iroko and Jonbon both being earmarked for elsewhere targets today has cleared up JP’s darts a little, he’s proved his quality in open company (as a novice) already and if he finds another 5lbs which is very doable he’s bang there with a shout on ratings alone. 25/1 is solid value!

 

[Eggs]

….could be worth getting Minella Premier on board ahead of the stable tours. General 33-1 Sup, general 25-1 Gallagher, debate to be had regarding both given his new trainer and comments following his impressive PTP win.

i’d be inclined to leave that option open as I’d split stakes with cash-out.

 

[JackieMoon33]

….could be worth getting Minella Premier on board ahead of the stable tours. General 33-1 Sup, general 25-1 Gallagher, debate to be had regarding both given his new trainer and comments following his impressive PTP win.

i’d be inclined to leave that option open as I’d split stakes with cash-out.

Minella Premier is a bit of a head scratcher for me. He's my #1 four year old PTP horse to follow and visually he looks like he could cope with shorter distances under rules. However, my brain is telling me that Shantou progeny should be running over 3 miles on soft ground! I'm hopeful that those visuals will play out and that he'll be one of the anomalies for Shantou, the dam side has a bit more speed mind you.

In regards to Supreme vs Ballymore, I'm of the opinion that most winners of either race would have been equally as competitive in the other race over recent years. There is the odd winner that likely wouldn't fare too well in the other race, but on the whole I think most could have transferred to the other race easily. With that in mind, If Minella Premier is sharp enough, I'd say its likely he'll be a Supreme horse, just on the basis that that's the race Henderson always targets with his best novices.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Minella Premier is a bit of a head scratcher for me. He's my #1 four year old PTP horse to follow and visually he looks like he could cope with shorter distances under rules. However, my brain is telling me that Shantou progeny should be running over 3 miles on soft ground! I'm hopeful that those visuals will play out and that he'll be one of the anomalies for Shantou, the dam side has a bit more speed mind you.

In regards to Supreme vs Ballymore, I'm of the opinion that most winners of either race would have been equally as competitive in the other race over recent years. There is the odd winner that likely wouldn't fare too well in the other race, but on the whole I think most could have transferred to the other race easily. With that in mind, If Minella Premier is sharp enough, I'd say its likely he'll be a Supreme horse, just on the basis that that's the race Henderson always targets with his best novices.

He's extremely difficult to assess with a lack of any form from his p2p.

He's also by a sire who produces stayers, out of a dam who is by a sire who produces stayers. I'll be amazed if he ends up in the Supreme. to be honest.

I couldn't include him in a Yankee for any novice hurdle race, at the moment.

 

[JackieMoon33]

He's extremely difficult to assess with a lack of any form from his p2p.

He's also by a sire who produces stayers, out of a dam who is by a sire who produces stayers. I'll be amazed if he ends up in the Supreme. to be honest.

I couldn't include him in a Yankee for any novice hurdle race, at the moment.

I don't take P2P form too literally so that's not a huge concern for me. But your comments on his pedigree are what's causing me to be cautious with him at the moment. But every sire does produce the odd horse that is an exception, and I've learned the hard way to trust my eyes more, rather than what's on paper.

 

[Atlantic Viking]

The pedigree is so heavily weighted to the staying side of things I couldn't even consider him for the Supreme regardless of who he's with or current price. It's different if it's a new sire or one with a mixed bag but this is Shantou we're talking about. Impervious (top level flat dam sire with a triumph hurdle winner among plenty of other decent horses at a mix of distances) and Magical Zoe (dam all 2m progeny, strong flat pedigree from the dam sire) are in there but is that enough to make me think realistically it'd be anything other than a wasted dart when the rest of the back catalogue so strongly points a certain way? Not really. I don't tend to give too much weighting to the dam either way but he's her first and her form would make you want to sit alone in a dark room. Again the dam sire catalogue points you only one way.

 

[JackieMoon33]

The pedigree is so heavily weighted to the staying side of things I couldn't even consider him for the Supreme regardless of who he's with or current price. It's different if it's a new sire or one with a mixed bag but this is Shantou we're talking about. Impervious (top level flat dam sire with a triumph hurdle winner among plenty of other decent horses at a mix of distances) and Magical Zoe (dam all 2m progeny, strong flat pedigree from the dam sire) are in there but is that enough to make me think realistically it'd be anything other than a wasted dart when the rest of the back catalogue so strongly points a certain way? Not really. I don't tend to give too much weighting to the dam either way but he's her first and her form would make you want to sit alone in a dark room. Again the dam sire catalogue points you only one way.

But if you'd looked at Ballyburn's pedigree in isolation and never seen him run, would you have had him down as a grade one winning novice hurdler over 2m and 2 and a half miles? He's a full brother to two staying chasers as well.

 

[Min The Merciless]

….could be worth getting Minella Premier on board ahead of the stable tours. General 33-1 Sup, general 25-1 Gallagher, debate to be had regarding both given his new trainer and comments following his impressive PTP win.

i’d be inclined to leave that option open as I’d split stakes with cash-out.

Swear MP was 20s any race with Sky this summer. Just looked again - 7s

 

[SeanRock]

I noted this comment regarding Minella Premier from a RP article earlier this year...

“He’ll improve stones for Nicky. He'll be a two-and-a-half-mile horse at Cheltenham next March. He’s the real deal.”

https://www.racingpost.com/bloodsto...h&_sgm_term=minella+premier&_sgm_pinned=false

 

[archie]

The sainted Airlie Beach was by Shantou. Third in a Galway Hurdle, Royal Bond winner and a listed winner over a mile and a half on the flat.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

But if you'd looked at Ballyburn's pedigree in isolation and never seen him run, would you have had him down as a grade one winning novice hurdler over 2m and 2 and a half miles? He's a full brother to two staying chasers as well.

If I had solely crossed him with an Old Vic mare then probably not, but taking his dam out of the equation then absolutely would have had him as anything, although was always convinced he was Ballymore bound and only backed him for the Supreme out of FOMO.

Flemensfirth has a very mixed bag, not to mention actually produces higher level of animal in comparison to Shantou. It's not as if Shantou has just come on to the scene, in fact, quite the opposite now, unfortunately. I honestly thought Stay Away Fay may be the first 170 horse for Shantou, but even he has now hit a wall seemingly.

If Minella Premier went to the Bartlett I'd be interested.

 

[Lobos]

Nallen said of Minella Premier.....

“I had plenty of offers before I came here with him. You’d be shocked by how much money I was prepared to take him home for. It’s a great result, though, and Nicky Henderson will improve him stones. He’ll be a proper two and half-mile horse at Cheltenham next March.”

 

[Atlantic Viking]

But if you'd looked at Ballyburn's pedigree in isolation and never seen him run, would you have had him down as a grade one winning novice hurdler over 2m and 2 and a half miles? He's a full brother to two staying chasers as well.

No, you're right, but Flemensfirth still doesn't have a Supreme winner regardless of whether we think he could/should have with the aforementioned. Ultimately they had their pick with him at the festival and chose what they chose, maybe because others like Mystical Power had less of an option, but still. He was impressive over the minimum at Dublin of course but Slade Steel is the key formline, a horse who won a heavy ground (I don't care what the official going says, we all know) Supreme, probably wants further, probably would have gone further if the Ballyburn decision went a different way and has been put in his place since.

 

[Lobos]

Henderson has had just one winner in the Ballymore in its entire history so perhaps one for the Novice chases in 2026.