September ‘24 Yankee

[Black Dog]

Normally yes, but there's an additional fence in the last mile on the New course vs the Old course which I'd argue makes the jumping more important for 2.5mile Ryanair vs the 2mile QMCC

It's getting to the last mile that was the problem :excitement:. Anyway I think Gaelic, El Fabiolo, Il etait temps and Energumene are all Champion Chase runners first and foremost until Willie decides they're not,and that's how I've played it so far,with the exception of Energumene (injury and age).

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Worth noting that a few go NRNB from 1st Jan for championship races plus Ryanair, obviously there'll be very little value when that happens but when you're playing yankees one non runner takes out 7 of the 11 bets....

That is a good point Istabraq

I suppose we need to determine if we put "second pick" races into a Yankee, at all, given the fallout of not even running in the race decimates the chance to make a profit.

Depends what the majority want, I suppose, to take a risk or if they want to find and back genuine Plan A horses (or a strong opinion on what Plan A is), in this group bet discussion.

At this point I dont think there much chance at all that the Ryanair is Plan A for Gaelic Warrior.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I’m just waiting for irony of all ironies and he gets sent to the Stayers, i’ll be torn between laughing, crying and launching myself off the lev 5 balcony….

 

[Odin]

Now I'm absolutely baffled I see things so differently to everyone else :cower::cower::highly_amused::highly_amused:

Ah well, at least it sparked some conversation :beaten:

 

[Kautostar]

I can’t see el fabiolo being stepped up in trip he’s a fast 2miler imo who admittedly has a mistake in him which happened at the worst possible moment last season. The Sandown race was never going to play to his strengths and probably wasn’t totally over that mistake both mentally and physically at the point. Willie just wanted a runner for prize money for the trainers championship. He’s got unfinished business in the champion chase.
I expect Gaelic warrior may target the tingle creek and then take it from there but he’d be my idea of the Ryanair winner at this stage.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I can’t see el fabiolo being stepped up in trip he’s a fast 2miler imo who admittedly has a mistake in him which happened at the worst possible moment last season.

Yep, I’d suggest the longer the race, and the more obstacles he faces, the more his chances reduce….

 

[HoldenTheReins]

Yep, I’d suggest the longer the race, and the more obstacles he faces, the more his chances reduce….

Could see GW bowl out in front like Allaho and put them to bed early

 

[Black Dog]

Now I'm absolutely baffled I see things so differently to everyone else :cower::cower::highly_amused::highly_amused:

Ah well, at least it sparked some conversation :beaten:

Doesn't mean you're wrong. When all's said and done we're all trying to second guess Willie. :cower:

 

[Zachx02]

Could see GW bowl out in front like Allaho and put them to bed early

Exactly how I see it, Vautour route with him going KG on the way there

 

[fatherjohn]

looking at what willie tends to do with his best 2m novice chasers theres not much precedent for him sending them up trip next season to the ryanair.

the exception was duc de genievres but he never went onto win the ryanair. probably because he couldnt believe hed won an arkle.​

min and un de sceaux both did well in arkle and went onto win the ryanair but both were aimed at qmcc the first year after the arkle. I can't find any arkle winner from willie than won the ryanair the following year.

its not like any horse is the same as those before it but I do think willie will give the arkle winner the option to stay at 2m for qmcc as that is what he has done with his better arkle horses before.

 

[Lobos]

Think you are all barking up the wrong tree as Corbett Cross wins the Ryanair :grief:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Think you are all barking up the wrong tree as Corbett Cross wins the Ryanair :grief:

I think you're right if Emmet and JP decide to target that race with him. He's still an under rated horse imo.

 

[Lobos]

I think you're right if Emmet and JP decide to target that race with him. He's still an under rated horse imo.

Yep. He has two ahead of him fir the GC IMO and he'll probably be too high for the GN. JP has Inothewayurthinkin for that anyway . It'll be very interesting how all those are campaigned.

 

[UpInTrip]

Another horse I feel is worth a mention for the Ryanair is L'Homme Presse. I understand the new horses coming into the division hold all the excitement but I think this lad would have a brilliant chance if targeted here. The horse has proven record of enjoying it round cheltenham and demonstrated a front running performance when winning the brown advisory (something a few of the FJ mentioned they are looking for ). Watching last years gold cup back he was running an unbelievable race until looking like the tank emptied 2 out over the gold cup trip. I believe Venetia may have commented on him not staying however this could be wrong. After missing most of the season due to the injury he sustained in the king George the previous year, it is comprehendible that a full season could bring out further improvement. I feel the 20/1 out there is more than fair for horse who is proven around the track and would be taking the route of last years winner (who he did beat last season, admitted it was a extremely weak renewal).

 

[Quevega]

Think the ryanair has plenty of potential contenders myself, including the second season chasers rated in the 150's, that had promising but short enough novice campaigns and excuses/reasons as to why they didn't make graded winners (or early season graded winners) last season.

Iroko, Spillanes Tower, Indiana Dream and Heart Wood for example.
Iroko and Heart Wood are fancy enough prices with Ladbrokes at 33's and 66's, but probably not worth backing just yet as they need to improve and show themselves better horses early season. Maybe in a valuable handicap.

Three of those are JP and could all end up over further also, so it will be interesting if any of those or others can put there faces into the big picture.
They all look capable of reaching the late 160's or above rating to get competitive, odds are that only one will reach the level required though.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Could see GW bowl out in front like Allaho and put them to bed early

He absolutely could, but you're placing an awful lot of trust in his jumping given he faces four more fences in the Ryanair and he's a horse who's had a jumping rick in him his entire career...

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Three Card Brag (NH Chase) - Looks an obvious E/W play to me. We know Gordon does well in this race, and using second season chasers. Three Card Brags chase form for me, was at a high level last season. Behind the eventual NH Chase winner, Corbetts Cross, on debut, the BANC 2nd, Monty's Star, on his second start, and then finishing off 3rd in a Grade 1 over 3m behind Spillane's Tower. He's already got a rating of 146 over fences for 3 runs and likely to improve further.

I actually called him a 'dog' last season because he's consistent without getting his head in front, probably more than he should, but on reflection that was probably a bit harsh based on how the form of the races he contested has stacked up.

12/1 isn't going to get us to retirement early, but it's a start in a leg for a yankee, and feel he'll be going off plenty shorter once the season gets underway and he wins on seasonal debut.

 

[Runragged]

As a keen going type, I don't see why Gaelic Warrior would be aimed at anywhere but the Champion Chase. His jumping was straight enough in the Arkle to quell any doubts about a left handed track and he arguably settles better at 2m than he would at 2 1/2m. If anyone was to step up then to me El Fabiolo would be a more obvious candidate in an attempt to put less emphasis on his fencing. However, with so many potential Championship horses in the Mullins yard this year then any early plans could easily change as the season goes on.

 

[Lobos]

Willie has had a couple of runners in the Champion Chase on plenty of occasions so every chance both El Fabiola and Gaelic Warrior run in the race. Willie has other horses who would be ultra competitive in the Ryanair and Energumene may be the one that steps up in trip as he's getting on a bit now and won both his Champion Chases in deep ground where stamina was the order of the day.

 

[Kautostar]

Three Card Brag (NH Chase) - Looks an obvious E/W play to me. We know Gordon does well in this race, and using second season chasers. Three Card Brags chase form for me, was at a high level last season. Behind the eventual NH Chase winner, Corbetts Cross, on debut, the BANC 2nd, Monty's Star, on his second start, and then finishing off 3rd in a Grade 1 over 3m behind Spillane's Tower. He's already got a rating of 146 over fences for 3 runs and likely to improve further.

I actually called him a 'dog' last season because he's consistent without getting his head in front, probably more than he should, but on reflection that was probably a bit harsh based on how the form of the races he contested has stacked up.

12/1 isn't going to get us to retirement early, but it's a start in a leg for a yankee, and feel he'll be going off plenty shorter once the season gets underway and he wins on seasonal debut.

Would have to be a weak renewal for him to win imo. He’s also very ground dependent if heavy isn’t in the description I would put a line through him. Was there a reason he didn’t run at Cheltenham last season? I honestly can’t remember if he’d had a setback or not?