Ryanair Chase 2018

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think the much derided Ryanair looks a cracker this year. Ok there's no Sprinter Sacre and not all will turn up but you could have UDS, Yorkhill, Fox Norton, Top Notch, Disko, Coney Island, Politologue, Great Field...add in the open and long looking line up in the stayers and it could easily be the two unfashionable championship races are in fact the most interesting this year?

FWIW I have a feeling for Fox Norton

Of those listed, I'd be amazed if Politilogue and Great Field turned up here and surprised if Coney Island and Disko did.

It should still be a stronger race than last season, which looking back, was rubbish.

 

[Kevloaf]

Of those listed, I'd be amazed if Politilogue and Great Field turned up here and surprised if Coney Island and Disko did.

It should still be a stronger race than last season, which looking back, was rubbish.

I think Top Notch is the horse that makes is stronger than last season (with UDS heading the market currently). Top Notch is better than Sub L and any of the other horses in last years renewal.

I'll be against Fox Norton unless he gets to a price that I can't imagine him being (6/1 at least) and I still would want to see the final field.

I still rthink there will be 1 top class horse, then Top Notch and a few other good horses (UDS I'd only class as good, on good ground) - I like him more than any other horse but how much I like it and how likely it is to win are obviously different.

 

[Garrison Savannah]

Of those listed, I'd be amazed if Politilogue and Great Field turned up here and surprised if Coney Island and Disko did.

Oh totally agree on the first two being unlikely to run.

Though I'd be surprised if both the second two line up in the gold cup.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think Top Notch is the horse that makes is stronger than last season (with UDS heading the market currently). Top Notch is better than Sub L and any of the other horses in last years renewal.

I'll be against Fox Norton unless he gets to a price that I can't imagine him being (6/1 at least) and I still would want to see the final field.

I still rthink there will be 1 top class horse, then Top Notch and a few other good horses (UDS I'd only class as good, on good ground) - I like him more than any other horse but how much I like it and how likely it is to win are obviously different.

Who are the potential Top Class horses Kev? You thinking Yorkhill or Min?

 

[jono]

I think the much derided Ryanair looks a cracker this year.

Hear, hear GS - it's looking a great race!

Much like most years it's very hard to have a real strong handle on this race until much closer to the festival as so much can change.
I've been surprised that no one in the racing media has even asked or questioned connections (RP Postcast the main culprit) even the possibility of the Ryanair for Yorkhill. In my eyes its the absolute obvious race for him and if he lines up I cannot see anyone else that could come here that I would favour. The fact both the Mullins have now repeatedly mentioned the Champion Chase specifically and not this race would seem to cause alarm but not only do we have history of switches, there is still so much that could change. Douvan and Faugheen will be the two players that still have the influence to shift the entire pack and until next weekend is complete, it's completely up in air. The fact connections appear to be deliberating between the top 2 mile events of either the Champion Chase or Champion Hurdle could even make you think that maybe they are only concerned about the very best races and not the Ryanair? But we know that is not true (bar a rare and out of character ultimatum from Graham Wylie) - Vautour got switched to this race with not a single mention of it a few years back and i'd have Vautour on a level above Yorkhill.

Also, I do slightly question Patrick Mullins viewpoint on Yorkhill's Lexus run and the fact he was taking lengths out of the field over the first 4 or 5 fences as justification of going back to 2 miles with him. Of course he would have been...he was racing too quickly and exuberant compared to the rest of the field full of pure 3 milers that were jumping efficiently and conservative...

On UDS - you can't not love the horse. I think he has finally shifted the tag of disappointment that followed him after he got beat at odds on by Sprinter Sacre in 2016. I certainly agree he will be able to compete and put it up to anyone, as he has shown on good ground at the festival like Ista says BUT...

We have enough evidence to clearly see he is below his best on that type of ground.

Cheltenham (Arkle) Mar 2015 - (G-S) Beat God's Own by 6L
Punchestown Apr 2015 - (G-Y) Beat Just Cameron by 3L
Cheltenham (Champion Chase) Mar 2016 - (G) Lost to Sprinter Sacre but only a nose a head of Special Tiara
Sandown Apr 2016 - (G) Lost to Sprinter Sacre (dodging bullets only 1L behind, albeit UDS made bas mistake 3 out)
Sandown Dec 2016 - (GS) Beat Sire de Grugy by 1L
Cheltenham (Ryanair) Mar 2017 - (G) Beat Sub Lieutenant by 1.5L
Punchestown Apr 2017 - (G-Y) - Lost to Fox Norton

Now there could be excuses in there, ignore the Punchestown runs as Cheltenham took it's toll? Losing to Fox Norton isn't too bad when he won at Aintree, has won 2 Schloer Chases and came second in the CC? Even losing to Sprinter Sacre who was a freak, he still beat Special Tiara who then won it the year after and so on..

For me though it just shows that yes it's still very good but it brings him back to the level of your Fox Nortons and Special Tiaras, and for that reason he is vulnerable, particularly at 7/2 fav.

From the Ryanair last year it's produced 1 winner and 1 placed horse from 20 runs and even with the uncertainty of runners, i'm certain this year will be a tougher test for him.

Now his best (on soft) is very good so of course he still might have enough as he did in both the Arkle and Ryanair and where as 10 years old is not over the hill - for a horse who wants soft ground, he will only find it harder and harder to run to his best on good ground for every run here on in imo.

 

[Kevloaf]

Who are the potential Top Class horses Kev? You thinking Yorkhill or Min?

Yeah Yorkhill...

If UDS is the Mullins best horse for the Ryanair, on normal spring ground, then I'd assume it is because they've got horses missing.

Min I'm not a big fan of really as I've said... so I suppose I'm only thinking Yorkhill could/should run here and then UDS would slot in as an admirable 2nd string.

 

[Kevloaf]

Some good points there jono that I agree with.

I don't want to be drawn in to a position in this race too early because I think two factors that make a HUGE difference.

The first, and most obvious, is the actual horses that turn up. I agree with you, and have said for quite a while too, that the Ryanair is EASILY the most logical option for Yorkhill based on:

A. His previous festival wins (and all his best form). JLT, Neptune as stand outs over a similar distance.

B. They took the easier route in his novice chase season in avoiding Altior over 2m.... why would that change this year

C. They have incredibly strong history in placing their best horses in the races they're most likely to win... I think it is clear that they believe DOuvan is the best horse in the yard, then Faugheen, then Yorkhill. They're the 3 stars and the former two are ahead of the latter IMO. Now this is only based on vibes but Patrick Mullins this week couldn't have been any clearer that DOuvan would be his ride, pick and choice in the CC if here arrived... which leads in to ...

D. Min and Douvan both look better 2 milers on their actual form.... if they have EITHER fit at Cheltenham, 2m would be their trip.... and there is 0% chance they wouldn't split Douvan and Yorkhill up.... there is a chance they'd have Min and Yorkhill in the same race, BUT if they race against eachother at Leopardstown, why would they do it again if they know one is better than the other?

I would see Yorkhill as the classiest, most talented and easily most obvious winner of the race, so until I know he is/isn't running here.... I wouldn't want to be bold about what is a good win/each way bet yet.... if Yorkhill and UDS ran for example, I would also expect a bold show from Top Notch and immediately any speculative ante post each ways become unappealing .... however if UDS is the fav, and its good ground, I'd fancy loads each way...

The second point is the ground. If it was soft or heavy ground, which is unlikely but an option, I'd make UDS an incredibly solid fav against any horse in training, including Yorkhill..... so untill I see the weather, I don't want to be too bold. As I completely agree about UDS on the better ground. He's clearly a good horse on it still, but being that close to horses like Special Tiara and Fox Norton is really good, but not good enough to get really bullish at his current price

 

[jono]

Of course things could change but right now for me...

Waiting Patiently - enough give in the ground and he will run
Top Notch - runs
Min / Yorkhill - imo one of these WILL run here
Fox Norton - most likely
Disko*
Coney island**

*If Disko does make it back in time I think it's certain he comes here and not the Gold Cup. You just can't be going into a Gold Cup with his prep. Connections will be happy to leave the Gold Cup for Road to Respect.

**Add the latest on Coney Island:

Minella Rocco made the frame in last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup but it is the relatively unexposed Coney Island who is as low as 8-1 in some lists for ‘Blue Riband’ glory this time. The horse is also prominent in ante-post lists for the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham.
“All options are open to him if he does well at Ascot,” Berry declared. “He is playing catch-up a little bit so we have to play it by ear and see how he performs at Ascot.”

Would to make make me think it's very very likely he comes here and not the Gold Cup.

Compare that to a field of:

Sub Leuitenant
Empire of Dirt
Aso
Josses Hill
Alaray
Uxizandre
Vaniteux

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

You've talked me into wanting to have a small interest on Yorkhill in this race via a treble with Apples Jade and CoC, 128/1 price boost with Laddies

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Is there a chance Djakadam could end up here ?
Obviously if Min runs then I fully expect the Ricci runners to be separated but I can't see any other Ricci horse that could head to the Champion Chase.
I thought I remember Mullins saying that Djakadam wouldn't go Gold Cup this year...

 

[Garrison Savannah]

Very similar to my line of thinking Jono.

A very difficult betting proposition at the moment

 

[Kevloaf]

Is there a chance Djakadam could end up here ?
Obviously if Min runs then I fully expect the Ricci runners to be separated but I can't see any other Ricci horse that could head to the Champion Chase.
I thought I remember Mullins saying that Djakadam wouldn't go Gold Cup this year...

I think there is a chance but it'd depend on a massive performance from Killultagh Vic in the Irish Gold Cup...

Even then though, would Ruby ride Djakadam over UDS?

I did fancy Djakadam for this early on in the season because of his superb record at the distance, but Sizing John put him away over that distance and I lost my interest...

 

[Deleted member 4957]

But KV isn't Ricci owned, Mullins has never had an issue running his against each other, it's Ricci that splits his horses up.
As I see it the intended races for Yorkhill and KV are irrelevant to where Djakadam lands....

 

[Kevloaf]

But KV isn't Ricci owned, Mullins has never had an issue running his against each other, it's Ricci that splits his horses up.
As I see it the intended races for Yorkhill and KV are irrelevant to where Djakadam lands....

Not irrelevant at all.... Willie splits them up, so that Ruby rides what he wants...

If KV puts in a big performance, then Djakadam might change race, as Ruby will want to be on KV in the GC and then he might want to try Djakadam in the Ryanair?

If KV flops, then Djakadam is Ruby's Gold Cup mount, as there isn't an alternative, and he's placed twice?

So they aren't irrelevant, if Djakadam is one of the horses Ruby wants to ride.... I can't see Ruby wanting to ride Djakadam in the Ryanair though, in any circumstance, so my opinion is now, No, Djakadam will be in the Gold Cup...

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I've never known Mullins to split his up, Ruby might chew his ear because he wants to ride all the best horses but Mullins has regularly pitches 3 of his together, didn't he have the Supreme 1-2-3 for different owners a coupel of years ago ?
It's Ricci that causes the issues, insisting that he has a live runner in most/every race often resulting in horses being run in wrong races....

 

[jono]

...The second point is the ground. If it was soft or heavy ground, which is unlikely but an option, I'd make UDS an incredibly solid fav against any horse in training, including Yorkhill..... so untill I see the weather, I don't want to be too bold. As I completely agree about UDS on the better ground. He's clearly a good horse on it still, but being that close to horses like Special Tiara and Fox Norton is really good, but not good enough to get really bullish at his current price

Yeah i'd agree with all that and your second point is probably the best way to sum it up. Bar backing a long shot and taking a chance on a big price it's a race where i'm happy to risk waiting and losing 2 or 3 points than forming and backing a strong opinion now.

 

[Kevloaf]

I've never known Mullins to split his up, Ruby might chew his ear because he wants to ride all the best horses but Mullins has regularly pitches 3 of his together, didn't he have the Supreme 1-2-3 for different owners a coupel of years ago ?
It's Ricci that causes the issues, insisting that he has a live runner in most/every race often resulting in horses being run in wrong races....

Never known Mullins to split him up? HE has so many horses that inevitably he has to run horses in different ownership against each other, but I can't think of (bar VVM/Limini - who both LOST anyway) ANY example where he has put a two of his best horses against each other... and to be fair, Limini and VVM aren't two of his top class horses, very good and good I'd class them as

Literally not one example, the closest you;'d get is Faugheen/Hurricane Fly, and that was not really a fair season.

Think of how UDS was campaigned, Annie Power? Constantly avoiding other stable stars!

 

[jono]

I think it just happened to be the case that a lot of the best horses in the yard were with Ricci?

Yorkhill and Min would be the most recent example where by the horses with different owners were clearly split up to allow Ruby to ride both. That in turn pushed Bellshill into the unsuitable Supreme, because Ruby wanted to ride Yorkhill

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I'm of the view it's Ricci, not Mullins, driving the split

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I think it just happened to be the case that a lot of the best horses in the yard were with Ricci?

Yorkhill and Min would be the most recent example where by the horses with different owners were clearly split up to allow Ruby to ride both. That in turn pushed Bellshill into the unsuitable Supreme, because Ruby wanted to ride Yorkhill

He's done it for years Jono.
Don't get me started on Champagne Fever....