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Ryanair Chase 2018
- Thread starter The Beast
- Start date
Where is the standard setting form? The Mildmay win, beating Sub Leuitenant? Or getting beaten in the CC and TC but staying on?
Completely disagree that's better than Top Notch's form so far and if FN goes King George he's potentially a gold cup runner?
Have they given up the 2m dream now? The pull of the Ryanair against a likely Mullins hotpot is enough for me to doubt he'll run here .... I think you'd be insane you have 6/1 now on FN
I took it big yesterday. Along with 50.0 gold cup.
I rate him 2/1 Ryanair NRNB honestly.
He deffo won't go qmcc
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Innoko
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I wouldn't back 2/1 nrnb .But I wouldn't want to lay it.
I certainly wouldn't want to lay 6/1 antepost.
UdS Gets his conditions. Ballyoision wants decent ground. Id have backed ballyoision at 5/1 on good to soft today. One to watch rather than bet in today. No idea how would effect odds if uds wins.
MrMcGoldrick
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UDS couldn't really have done it any easier, good to see the big guns coming back, Sizing John too looked awesome
Couldn't help but he impressed with UDS, visually very good.. I just get the impression that he goes so well on that ground that when every thing else starts to tire 4f from home (over 2m) he can keep going a fair bit longer.. hence the winning distance.. I just feel that as you saw in the QMCC on better ground, better horses can go his pace for a lot longer and them see him off with a turn of foot or stamina up the hill.. my 3 plays in the race so far are MIN (any race 15:2) waiting patiently 20/1 and top notch 16/1.. can't knock UDS for what he's achieved but think the above are a little value.. very interested in the mare benie des deaux see where she ends up
I've considered Paitently Waiting too cwright.
I agree with UDS too, I honestly think if the ground had Heavy in the going he'd win a Ryanair or CC. From an ante-post perspective, because he is so ground dependant to be at his best, then he'seasy to pass over at the trimmed price now.... but when NRNB comes out one of the first bets I'll have will be UDS in the CC!
Won't run unless its Heavy and I anticipate they'll price him up wrong.
I agree with UDS too, I honestly think if the ground had Heavy in the going he'd win a Ryanair or CC. From an ante-post perspective, because he is so ground dependant to be at his best, then he'seasy to pass over at the trimmed price now.... but when NRNB comes out one of the first bets I'll have will be UDS in the CC!
Won't run unless its Heavy and I anticipate they'll price him up wrong.
Faugheen_Machine
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Did anyone see Top Notch's performance today? I missed to buy notice he has been cut again by most bookies. Did he impress?
doctorwu
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I watched the race FM. Not overly impressed with the performance. Jumping a bit scruffy. Wont be winning at the festival with a repeat of that performance Imo. And then you have that nasty trend of Peterborough Chase winners attempting to win at the festival.
A few jumps weren't great and didn't wing the last this time but over 80% we're jumped with his nice efficant style.... won as his odds implied, everything was off the bridle and he just got asked to extend after the last.....
The "winner of the Peterborough Chase" stat wouldn't concern me in any year, as Riverside Theatre, Menorah, Hunt Ball, Somersby, Captain Chris, Wishful Thinking, Al Ferof, More of That are all good horses and plenty of them have proven to be fine at Cheltenham, whether it is the same year is just pure coincedence..... PLUS the race wasn't even at the same track so you're literally only using the name of the race as an exact comparision to other years....
Surely doc you have to strike a line through that stat this year?
I'd much prefer the 10/1 about Top Notch that 6/1 about Fox Norton at this stage! Perfectly happy to have TN at 29/1 exchanges and 15/1 each way.
doctorwu
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Kev,
Peterborough winners do not come out a win a Ryanair in the same season. That stat has saved me a lot of money. Poison chalice.
However I am tempted to strike a line through that race. TN would need to be better than that run if he wants to win a Ryanair.
Peterborough winners do not come out a win a Ryanair in the same season. That stat has saved me a lot of money. Poison chalice.
However I am tempted to strike a line through that race. TN would need to be better than that run if he wants to win a Ryanair.
It wouldn't stop me backing a winner of it if i thought I'd beat SP but that's more down to my betting approach so how accurate the stat is, doesn't matter to me.
If I was just thinking about the winner though, I'd certainly put a line through the stat because its just a totally different race this season.
On literal form of TN's win he'd need to be better to win a Ryanair but there hasn't been a performance by ANY horse bar sizing john that would win a Ryanair so far this season and he obviously isn't even a contender... so i wouldn't beat him with a stick for that or expect him to have his best rating today compared to the Ryanair.
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I'm a big fan of trends but this really is an odd one, the list of winners include some of the most talented chasers in recent history, One Man, Edredon Bleu, Menorah, Best Mate, Remittance Man amongst them, all of whom have won at the festival though the majority winning before the festival extension so would not have won the Ryannair, but the fact they all won at Cheltenham confirms the tracks are not so wildly different you require a completely different set of skills to succeed at both.
The trend may be true but I think it's only a matter of time before it's busted, a dozen renewals in it has stood firm but I'd be surprised if it survives another dozen, it may not even survive another dozen weeks....
Has to be here.... will be 5 years since he won the race so I can't see many people giving him a chance though. Certainly would add a nice angle to the race from a watching perspective though... none of his form this year entitles him to win the race but would be some comeback!