Ryanair Chase 2018

[Scooby91]

Has to be here.... will be 5 years since he won the race so I can't see many people giving him a chance though. Certainly would add a nice angle to the race from a watching perspective though... none of his form this year entitles him to win the race but would be some comeback!

He no longer has the pace for the Ryanair I'm afraid. He's pushed along early in his races this year. Does cue card qualify for the veterans race series? I'd rather see him now out racing competitively rather than being tailed of and pushed along. He's got a hurdle mark of 151. That would interest me as an owner, His best chance of a win at the festival would probably be in the coral cup over 2m5 which is a race that usually emphasises stamina.

 

[jono]

This discussion won't be for many but thinking about Yorkhill and what next...

(I make my best attempt in going through the Irish calendar but i'm no expert so please correct me if I make any glaring mistakes!)

Now if we were to take the following prep races available at each trip in Ireland between now and March:

2m
Tied Cottage Chase (Punchestown - right handed)

2m4
Kinloch Bray (Thurles - right handed)

3m+
Irish Gold Cup (Leopardstown - left handed)

3 miles is no longer an option and we know he needs to go left handed, certainly over fences so that discounts those races. Looking elsewhere in terms of Ireland that allows races at the following tracks:

Bellewstown
Killarney
Leopardstown
Listowel
Naas
Navan
Tipperary

Which really narrows down just the 3 in bold. Outside of running in handicap chases it actually still leaves very little choices now that the previously obvious February target of the Irish Gold Cup is off the agenda. At those 3 tracks:

Naas
25/02 - 2m - Chase
http://racing.betting-directory.com/naas-results/26th-february-2017/4-20.php
http://racing.betting-directory.com/naas-results/21st-february-2016/4-05.php

Navan
19/02 - 3m - Ten Up Novice Chase
http://racing.betting-directory.com/navan-results/19th-february-2017/4-10.php

Leopardstown
03/02 - 2m1 - Chase (new race as mentioned by Kevin Blake at the new Dublin Racing Festival Feb 3rd/4th)
04/02 - 3m - Irish Gold Cup

I cannot find any other chases he could run in. With Naas coming just over 2 weeks before the festival the new race created from the Dublin racing festival the first weekend of February could be a savour when it comes to finding a race over fences for Yorkhill. There looks no option of an intermediate race over fences so if he were to stay over fences, it's almost certain we will see him over 2 miles. I don't think that would discount him then stepping up in trip to the Ryanair in March at all as we know the distance is fine and Mullins has often ran horses at different trips due to timings and options not as an indicator of their target but for everyone that is hoping to see him tried over the minimum distance over a fence - it's likely to happen whether by desire or lack of alternatives.

He did of course travel over to Sandown in his novice hurdle season for the Tolworth and perhaps that could be an option again to give them more choices, I think there is a Chase at Warwick that they could look at but on a very very brief look more right handed tracks (Ascot) would limit his options here.

Now of course with what happened to Faugheen today hurdles may become the new plan. He has to go left handed over fences. I'm not sure whether that would be the case back over hurdles (he did jump left over hurdles as well but not as pronounced) which would likely leave again the Leopardstown festival and the Irish Champion Hurdle.

Whatever they decide to do with Yorkhill, i'd be certain he'll be going back over 2 miles, at Leopardstown on the 3rd February either over fences or hurdles

 

[Kevloaf]

List of Ryanair Chase Trial Races
DATE RACECOURSE RACE NAME WINNER
29/10/2017 Aintree Old Roan Chase Smad Place 12/1
07/11/2017 Exeter Haldon Gold Cup Politologue 5/2 Fav
13/11/2017 Cheltenham Paddy Power Splash Of Ginge 25/1
25/11/2017 Ascot 1965 Chase Top Notch 5/2 JF
10/12/2017 Punchestown John Durkan Sizing John 2/1
14/12/2017 Huntingdon Peterborough Chase Top Notch 4/9 Fav
16/12/2017 Cheltenham December Gold Cup Guitar Pete 9/1
26/12/2017 Kempton King George VI Chase Might Bite 6/4 Fav
27/12/2017 Leopardstown Paddy's Rewards Club Chase Simply Ned 16/1
28/12/2017 Leopardstown Christmas Chase Road To Respect 8/1

12/02/2018 Leopardstown Irish Gold Cup
18/02/2018 Ascot Betfair Ascot Chase


Nothing obvious there from this that I found, Irish Gold Cup and right handed at Ascot are 'no' so you're probably right! 2m1f?

I assume Min 'was' pencilled in for that, UDS will go across to the UK.... where would Min slot in? Same race?!

 

[Montjeu]

Is Fox Norton 8/1 a vast overreaction by the bookies? After rewatching his Melling Chase victory, I certainly think so.

 

[Kevloaf]

Is Fox Norton 8/1 a vast overreaction by the bookies? After rewatching his Melling Chase victory, I certainly think so.

Certainly agree it is a much more interesting price.

For contrast, 6/1 any race IS available.... I wouldn't be certain Tizzard will run him in the right race based on this season, even if it looks obvious!

I think Fox Norton is a terrible price at 4/1 for this race (well obviously it is when 6/1 is available any race) BUT every horse has and even though I;'m usually saying how much I don't think Fox Norton, it is always price related, and 8/1 is enough to at least get my attention, so I imagine a few on here will think its a very good price

 

[jono]

Is Fox Norton 8/1 a vast overreaction by the bookies? After rewatching his Melling Chase victory, I certainly think so.

I think there has been a slight over reaction to Fox Norton's Tingle Creek defeat, particularly from Tizzard himself and has eagerness to go for the King George. And it wouldn't actually suprise me if he was to have another go back at 2 miles so i'd definitely take the 6/1 mentioned over a couple more points at 8/1 this race. Particularly with Douvan out and Min not looking as much of a force on his last run. Is it out of the question that Fox Norton couldn't turn round the form against Politolgue?

At the end of the day he was a head away from winning at all 3 festivals last Spring, 2 of them over 2 miles. Has won the Schloer Chase impressively over 2 miles and has course form figures of 2311121. (Compare that to Politolgue's 2 runs at the festival, albeit the 4th in a good JLT) Whatever the trip/race like Kev says I think the price is starting to have some attraction to it.

 

[Kevloaf]

I think there has been a slight over reaction to Fox Norton's Tingle Creek defeat, particularly from Tizzard himself and has eagerness to go for the King George. And it wouldn't actually suprise me if he was to have another go back at 2 miles so i'd definitely take the 6/1 mentioned over a couple more points at 8/1 this race. Particularly with Douvan out and Min not looking as much of a force on his last run. Is it out of the question that Fox Norton couldn't turn round the form against Politolgue?

At the end of the day he was a head away from winning at all 3 festivals last Spring, 2 of them over 2 miles. Has won the Schloer Chase impressively over 2 miles and has course form figures of 2311121. (Compare that to Politolgue's 2 runs at the festival, albeit the 4th in a good JLT) Whatever the trip/race like Kev says I think the price is starting to have some attraction to it.

Literally got the 6/1 in a bet slip now... feel torn.

Trying to weigh up what price he'd go off and what chance of winning each race...

Certainly deserves to be a similar price to Politilogue and whether I agree or not, he's already 4/1 in places for the Ryanair so he'll be shorter than 6/1 if the target is declared.

I just feel a little hesitant as I'm probably only gaining a coulple of pts to SP and he might not get there... AND I will definitely fancy Altior to beat him in a CC and I expect a Mullins short priced fav too in the Ryanair?

 

[Kevloaf]

I've convinced myself that Yorkhill should go for this race....

1. JLT win over almost the same C&D as Ryanair last season was his best ever performance.

2. The form of that race has worked out really well and on last years JLT he holds:
2.a. The 4th Politilouge now 2nd fav for the CC, fell with the G1 at Aintree at his mercy, then won 3 races this season 2x Grade 2 and a Grade 1
2.b The 3rd Disko went on to win the Grade 1 novice chase at Punchestown (beating Anibale Fly 5L who just won the PP Chase off 148) before reappearing this season and Grade 2 on his only run this season
2.c The 2nd, Top Notch has won 2 grade 2s this season after a pipe opener over hurdles.

3. The Ryanair is the 'most winnable' on paper...
3.a CH has Buveur D'air in it, no form line to suggest Yorkhill would be able to beat him and would have had a very poor prep (not insumountable as a challenge but certainly not EASY).
3.b The CC has Altior in it. I covered this last season and I thought they took the easier option of avoiding Altior in the Arkle and although Altior is off at the moment, facing Altior is surely still harder on paper than whatever would run here.
3.c Gold Cup looks impossible to win on todays performance
3.d. Stayers hurdle he'd possibly be fav, but would still need to prove he stayed and he wasn't a good hurdler anyway

4. Connetions know what it takes to win the Ryanair... having won the last 2, Vautour and Un De Sceaux, especially with UDS still in the yard, they'd surely be able to work out who would have the best chance of winning it...

5. The only race at this stage you'd be certain he'd go off fav for... and I think Ruby thinks so much of him that he wouldn't let anyone else have the ride. Whereas I can see UDS as a ride for Townend in the same race... team tactics could even come in to play, UDS will make it, and be a perfect horse to create a strong pace for Yprkhill to run at.

6. Winner is a winner.... I don't think Mullins is very happy about Elliott beating him to the top trainer last season, and because Elliott is already talking about putting his horses in the race they're most likely to win (like Apple's Jade) I can't imagine Mullins would change his approach, which has been this way for as long as I've been watching racing.


I appreciate the strong case made for Yorkhill being better over 2m, and Kevin Blake might be right... but he'd be a worthy fav for this race, versus a 50/50 at best in a CC or CH at this stage.

 

[Morning Glory]

Yorkhill and UDS will be split.

Case for Yorkhill here is well made.

Added Double with UDS for gold cup.

 

[Al Ferof]

Yorkhill has to be in either the CC or Ryanair. Ryanair is usually a good clip so he could settle better than the Lexus. He's still a very headstrong sort though and I don't think it would be the penalty kick that Vautour was. He'll take a good ride again but if he got it he should win this.

I'd like them to try him at 2m but not entirely sure that they will.

 

[Robbante]

Don’t see Yorkhill in this race. The trip would seem ideal but he’s a top horse and I think you’d have to respect him at any distance from 2m to 3m, though I’m sure the Gold Cup won’t now be on the agenda this year. His performance was such that I think they might just pop him back over hurdles next time out. Ruby is key to his chances so will have a definite say in where he goes. Assuming softish ground I think Ruby will want to be on UDS in the Ryanair, leaving Yorkhill to take in either the champion hurdle or champion chase. I can see them preferring to go Melon and Yorkhill up against Buveur D’air than Min and Yorkhill up against Altior. I’d be surprised if they throw two of their big guns together at the Ryanair.

Realise that if Faugheen gets back then the picture changes and I could very much then see Yorkhill Ryanair

 

[jono]

Personally unless we got a soft ground festival I don't quite see UDS up there at the very top of the pecking order at the yard (Faugheen, Douvan, Yorkhill) purely because good ground means his superiority is shortened. I may well be wrong and we are talking about the current Ryanair winner.

On thing I did notice having watched the Christmas Chase back a few times is the lack of cover Yorkhill had on the inside at the start of the race. Whether the other jockeys had this as a deliberate ploy or not but it would be an obvious way of hindering the horse. His best rides have been at Cheltenham with Ruby hugging the rail at the back getting plenty of cover but over Christmas, Townend got the rail however the majority of the field started off considerably to the right meaning he had a free path in front which goes a long way to explain why he got to the front so quickly.

Neptune:

JLT:

Christmas Chase:

Now it's a little ludicrous to think all the other jockeys decided to do so but if I was a jockey on another horse in the race, I would be looking at employing such tactics and I wonder whether that could be a tactic going forward. Even if he were to be dropped back to 2 miles I think they would still look to ride him at the back and not want him getting involved at the front too soon.

 

[Kevloaf]

If they know he stays 2m4f they might not be as likely to get him covered up? Maybe they'll let him bowl along ... could make a huge difference. Getting him settled is clearly a factor, as is his idling.

Makes you appreciate how hard it must be to get a horse with both the right attitude to match the talent!

 

[Scooby91]

His engine is in tact alright but his hurdle jumping brain hasn't changed much!" said Mullins.

"Hopefully everything will be alright over the next week and we'll probably look for something over fences for him the next time. He's not a natural hurdler.

"The main thing is just to recover from this race and look for a target after that.

"I sort of wondered whether I'd stay hurdling with him this season but the way he jumped there he's not going to step up in class much more.

"We schooled him over fences the other day, before Leopardstown, and maybe that's what was in his head but he hasn't the best reputation as a hurdler. We'll probably look for a chase.

"The Kinloch Brae in Thurles might come too soon. Maybe the Red Mills Chase might suit better.

"Today's job is done and the next job is to see how he comes out of the race, then we'll look at something after that.

"The conditions of this race suited. We entered him in other races over Christmas but these conditions suited and he needed all those weight advantages to win."



Looks good for the ryaniar to me. Certainly hope so anyway.
Have him covered at 210.0
Kilultagh vic.

 

[Kevloaf]

Ryanair would be good!

WHat rating will he have, would the Brown Plate come in to the equation for him?

 

[Scooby91]

The 2 races mullins mentions are usually Ryanair trials. Would be rare mullins putting a horse that's unexposed at the top level In a handicap chase. I'd be fairly confident all being well he will go ryaniar.

 

[Kevloaf]

The 2 races mullins mentions are usually Ryanair trials. Would be rare mullins putting a horse that's unexposed at the top level In a handicap. I'd be fairly confident all being well he will go ryaniar.

I've poked any race at 22/1
but see he is 25/1 for this race.... tempted to have an each way play at those odds.... really, really, really liked KV for the JLT the year he was ruled out and they surely won't go anywhere else, if good enough then...

25s too big first show? WH

 

[Scooby91]

I've poked any race at 22/1
but see he is 25/1 for this race.... tempted to have an each way play at those odds.... really, really, really liked KV for the JLT the year he was ruled out and they surely won't go anywhere else, if good enough then...

25s too big first show? WH

A quick poke through mullins previous runners in both. They're all Ryanair horses. Looks too big to me but so did 210.0 upon entries. Hopefully he stays sound.

 

[Kevloaf]

A quick poke through mullins previous runners in both. They're all Ryanair horses.

Yeah just looked myself, although not exactly his best horse each season. Ballycasey is admirable and Champagne Fever was a good horse...

Think the target is right though, well done on the 210.0 - I tihnk 25/1 is a very fair price still.

 

[Scooby91]

Yeah just looked myself, although not exactly his best horse each season. Ballycasey is admirable and Champagne Fever was a good horse...

Think the target is right though, well done on the 210.0 - I tihnk 25/1 is a very fair price still.

Black Hercules last year, ballycasey his 1st year and champagne fever were at the time the shortest price runners for mullins Ryanair. . Bar vautour who was thought to go gold cup.