Ryanair Chase 2018

[Deleted member 4957]

Just wondering what people think about the pricing by Paddy Power & Betfair (obviously owned by the same company), with regards to this race.

I don't think PP are a credible bookmaker any longer C or D so would disregard their prices, anyone who bets more than a fiver is shut down and pushed towards the exchange.
For me they've evolved into a gimmick company who don't want to behave like bookmakers but their focus is on the publicity generated from the odd comical tweet/advert.
Their day has gone....

 

[Scooby91]

Just wondering what people think about the pricing by Paddy Power & Betfair (obviously owned by the same company), with regards to this race.

I have seen a few times on this forum that there is belief Paddy Power have links to the Mullins yard, I assume due to them being a Irish company, however their pricing up of this race alongside Betfair suggests they are unsure about any runner for this race from that particular yard.

They are either clear price leaders or at minimum joint best prices on Un De Sceaux, Yorkhill, Douvan, Min, Djakadam, Great Field & VVM for this race, yet find themselves a long way short of the prices of Top Notch & Road To Respect, 2 horses that are with different yards entirely.

Are we to assume that the muddied waters for us are just as muddy for them at this stage or that they potentially don't want to give anything away should they know which horses are being aimed where? Or something else?

From the recent David Evans (trainer) court case.

On calling Ladbrokes on the morning of the race, the firm offered Evans 4-1 for a bet of £6,000 on Black Dave, better odds than the available 7-2.

In*Monday's hearing, Keith Page, regulatory development manager at what is now Ladbrokes Coral,*described Evans as “a highly valued customer”. This was Evans’ largest bet on the account he used.

Four minutes after the call, in which Evans told*a Ladbrokes trader stablemate Tango Sky was going to be withdrawn, they shortened Tango Sky to 3-1 (from 7-2),*leading to a*rule 4 deduction taking 25p from every £1, rather than 20p, on all bets in the race*before Tango Sky was pulled out.

Evans declared Tango Sky a non-runner*– with a vet’s certificate obtained the evening before stating the horse was “not sound”*– almost an hour after placing his bet with Ladbrokes, and at BHA headquarters in London on Monday*claimed he was not aware of the requirement to immediately notify the Racing Calendar office about a non-runner.



Page said: “It’s a regular occurrence to offer a better price to a certain profile of customer or a long-term customer, while Tango Sky’s price was cut to bring it in line with industry prices at the time.


I'm sure many trainers/ owners have these accounts with certain bookmakers.

 

[robith]

I don't think PP are a credible bookmaker any longer C or D so would disregard their prices, anyone who bets more than a fiver is shut down and pushed towards the exchange.
For me they've evolved into a gimmick company who don't want to behave like bookmakers but their focus is on the publicity generated from the odd comical tweet/advert.
Their day has gone....

My take on PP as someone who works in advertising and has some category experience - PP were regarded as best in class, not in sector but as a brand operating in the UK. Their marketing team was pure class (I had an interview there and didn't get past first round - couldn't compete with all the thoroughbred classically trained marketeers from Unilever etc backgrounds). Then they merged, all the PP marketing guys got binned and seemingly all of their spend got pushed behind Betfair instead, who have a track record of substandard marketing. I suspect there was a bit of a struggle and Betfair has won out.

Have my own bookmaker horror stories to tell but maybe if we ever meet for a pint rather than committing libel and causing all sort of problems for the forum haha

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Didn't know that Robith but makes sense now you've said it.
I just want bookies to behave like bookies and take a bet, maybe this government review on machines in shops and online casinos will result in a crackdown that limits their earnings, and therefore profit, and they're forced to go back to doing what they did 15-20 years ago....

 

[BigChaang]

I won't aftertime individual bets but in a short answer yes. I started off ew then have gradually gone win only last 2 years,

Youv'e Converted me Scooby !!, 5 out of 6 of my a/p bets today , i did as win only .!! :triumphant:

 

[archie]

It's just about 5 weeks since I was there and heard Willie say words to the effect of:
they're both good enough for the QM but you'd have thought that Douvan had more raw speed. Breeding suggests that they could both go further.

I was left in little doubt that if they both stayed sound, Douvan would end up in the QM and Min the Ryanair. However, that was 5 weeks ago and that is an eternity in Mullins time. I'm hoping to get there next week and it will be interesting to see if anything has changed in the interim.

Willie didn't say anything this time but one of the guys who speaks with him regularly thinks that Douvan will run in the Gold Cup. (Health warning - he thought the same last season!) If that happens, Min will go for the QM and Djakadam will be Ricci's in this.

UDS almost certainly goes for this again and looked in rude health as did Yorkhill and Douvan who were following him round on the gallops.

 

[Leman14]

Willie didn't say anything this time but one of the guys who speaks with him regularly thinks that Douvan will run in the Gold Cup. (Health warning - he thought the same last season!) If that happens, Min will go for the QM and Djakadam will be Ricci's in this.

UDS almost certainly goes for this again and looked in rude health as did Yorkhill and Douvan who were following him round on the gallops.

Thanks Archie.... the question then remains...

IF they all make it there safe and sound..... where does Yorkhill go?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Thanks Archie.... the question then remains...

IF they all make it there safe and sound..... where does Yorkhill go?

Yeah, thanks for the info Archie.

I believe Douvan & Yorkhill will be split up, so if Douvan goes GC then Yorkhill comes here and vice versa, always thought Min would go QMCC route tbh.

 

[Scooby91]

Yeah, thanks for the info Archie.

I believe Douvan & Yorkhill will be split up, so if Douvan goes GC then Yorkhill comes here and vice versa, always thought Min would go QMCC route tbh.

I think the plan at the moment and I'm sure Mr wylie would agree is yorkhill sole aim for the gold cup. With his run style that could easily be forced to change as the season goes on. But as it stands yorkhill gold cup

 

[Leman14]

I think the plan at the moment and I'm sure Mr wylie would agree is yorkhill sole aim for the gold cup. With his run style that could easily be forced to change as the season goes on. But as it stands yorkhill gold cup

Surely Ruby would have a say in target - could Yorkhill be the VVM of this year and "fill in"?
Too good to be a super-sub, but potentially versatile and Ruby wouldn't want to not ride both

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I don't think they'll clash!

They'll be split between Ryanair & Gold Cup or god forbid, one won't make the festival.

 

[Kevloaf]

I don't think they'll clash!

They'll be split between Ryanair & Gold Cup or god forbid, one won't make the festival.

100%.

I would not even waste a second on thinking Ruby would give up the ride on Yorkhill or Douvan.

I've made this point before too but Yorkhill and Douvan I the any race market might end up looking value when one oiff them runs here at about 4/6 :highly_amused:

Altior/Douvan/Yorkhill
Altior/Yorkhill/Douvan

Can someone price those up ... I'm at work haha

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Altior/Douvan/Yorkhill
Altior/Yorkhill/Douvan

Can someone price those up ... I'm at work haha

143/1
233/1

With SkyBet, haven't shopped for best odds but gives you an idea.

Only problem is when Min beats Altior

 

[Liam301287]

I added Min ha ha in the treble with the other on Ante post bit.

 

[Kevloaf]

143/1
233/1

With SkyBet, haven't shopped for best odds but gives you an idea.

Only problem is when Min beats Altior

Haha if people are inclined to believe Min is better than Douvan then they can switch it up :highly_amused:
..... in all seriousness, Altior isn't worth putting in the multiple at his odds ...

 

[Liam301287]

Exactly Why I added Min Queen Morher Yorkill Ryanair and Douvan Gold Cup ew on mine,

 

[Kevloaf]

Dangerous game... believing in a Mullins comment... but in the RP stable tour tomorrow he (for the first time that I have seen) says "Just where he'll start back is uncertain, but it'll be over 2m or thereabours and he might step up in trip later on".


That only says might but since Altior is more vulnerable than ever, Douvan could go CC and Min stepped up to try the Ryanair...

As much as I like UDS, 14/1 about Min is tempting as a saver in this race based on those comments ...

 

[Scooby91]

Agreed kev.
Iwont personally back min for this, but altior wasn't the best news for min running in the qmcc.

 

[Kevloaf]

Agreed kev.
Iwont personally back min for this, but altior wasn't the best news for min running in the qmcc.

I've just made a fairly rash decision to back Faugheen(CH), Douvan(CC), Min(Ryanair) at 194/1.

More fear of missing out on a price than educated bet though in hindsight. :very_drunk:

 

[Montjeu]

What do we all make of Bachasson? Been impressive over fences, but is he a Grade 1 horse, or one for the big handicaps? His form is way below Gold Cup standard and in any other year I’d say he has a nice profile for this, but with Mullins having the choice of Douvan, UDS, Min, Great Field, Djakadam, it’s hard to see past any of them. With Acapella and Total Recall for the big handicaps too it’s hard to see where he fits in.