Ryanair Chase 2018

[Faugheen_Machine]

I don't understand why people think a two and a half mile grade 1 hurdle would be a good addition. It's ideal for the powerful owners and trainers but it's the racegoer who'd be missing out on some big clashes. For example, The New One v Faugheen v Hurricane Fly certainly wouldn't have happened.

Getting back to the Ryanair though - surely UDS take all the beating again this season, especially if the hose pipes are turned on again on the Wednesday night.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

FM - I think having taken the plunge in the chase division by not doing it for hurdlers they've created an inconsistency....

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

FM - I think having taken the plunge in the chase division by not doing it for hurdlers they've created an inconsistency....

They certainly have, but two wrongs don't make a right. Odds on favourites and small field championship races will be common place if the dilution continues.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Interesting from the Tizzard stable tour regarding Fox Norton: "He will go for his second crack at the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham after being beaten only a head in the race last March. He will take in the Shloer and the Tingle Creek and he will be given an entry in the King George too just in case the other horses don’t run there. The only time we stepped up in trip was at Aintree and he ran superb to win the Melling Chase over two and a half miles. He is a very classy horse and we will start at two miles but if gets beat a few times we will step him up in trip."

Not even a 'might' it's almost definite and there he is sitting as short as 7/2 favourite for the Ryanair!

I always take trainers/jockeys/owners comments with a pinch of salt but I also believe Colin Tizzard to be one of the most genuine I have listened to and indeed met.

 

[Kevloaf]

My understanding is that Potts wants to go for the CC and he has no interest in the Ryanair at all, despite Tizzard being sure he'd be better up in trip. Tizzard thinks FN could be a King George horse but won't get to test it unless anything happens to Sizing John.

I could find all the quotes but I'm sure you believe me

 

[ComplyOrDie]

And Potts generally calls the shots I believe?

In which case it makes the Ryanair price somewhat bizarre, I also don't feel he should be that short even if he was running in this race tbh!

 

[Kevloaf]

I thought about Top Notch for this race after his effort behind Yorkhill and ahead of Disko last year... and I saw Hendo say he hopes he could turn into a Ryanair contender..... but 16/1 is pretty skinny. Just less than double that on the exchange. Not a bet at this stage for me but I do really like the horse.

 

[Garrison Savannah]

Does Road to Respect have a history of jumping quite violently to the left like he did today?

 

[Kevloaf]

I think I had forgotten just how impressive UN DE SCEAUX was in this race last year.

Won an Arkle, 2nd to Sprinter Sacre in a CC and won a Ryanair at Cheltenham. I think he'd have won the CC this year, but he is a better horse over further at the age he is now. The fact he pulled so hard and still managed to win as he did this year was mighty impressive and although there is a slight chance he'd drop to the CC, you'd think something would have to happen to Douvan, Min and Great Field unless it was HEAVY.

My first post in this thread has quotes from Joe Tizzard saying Potts wants Fox Norton to go for the CC or GC depending on Sizing John, and because FN beat UDS over 16f (albeit looking like he out-stayed him as he was off the bridle long before) and FN also showing his best form over 20f, I have to admit, I'd probably think FN has the beating of UDS over the Ryanair trip BUT at 13/2 I think it is not giving UDS enough respect.

This is not a sexy race at all and I might be crazy but I think you can nail your colours to the mast and say this is UDS's target!

Fox Norton 5/1 - Target is CC, then GC!
UDS 13/2 - 2017 champion
Yorkhill 8/1 - Would win, won't run
Djakadam 10/1 - made my case for him with his superb intermediate trip figures, but Gold Cup is the aim again
Douvan 10/1 - Would win, won't run
Min 14/1 - Seen the case that he might turn up here, wouldn't like to take the price
Might Bite 14/1 - These bookies should be ashamed to have this horse quoted :highly_amused:
Great Field 16/1 - doesn't want the step up in trip yet!
Road to Respect 16/1 - Gold Cup campaign
Coney Island 16/1 - Gold Cup campaign
Top Notch 16/1 - Aimed at the race and I do like him...
Charbel 16/1 - I believe aimed at the race, and I do like him....

Gigginstown will end up with a live chance, I would like Disko but doubt he'll run, Sub Lieutenant was well held last year in 2nd and Balko Des Flos? pah

The 13/2 with Betfair just looks too big to me, as a single...

I have 2 pts on UDS at 8.4
1 pt on Cue Card at 35.0 (speculative)
0.5 pts on Outlander at 54.0

I should add Top Notch and Charbel at 16's, potentially each way... but not before I top up on UDS...

 

[Scooby91]

May be to my detriment but certainly has payed off handsomely in previous years, but i can't touch any mullins horse that's standout top price with pp/ Betfair. Vvm in the mares market another that seems to good to be true

I won't go into detail but either they're traders are phenomenal or .......
interesting that the 2 in question seemed to walk past the gallops when samcro was working, when they cut from 16s to 8s before anyone else, or any news in public domain.

 

[Kevloaf]

May be to my detriment but certainly has payed off handsomely in previous years, but i can't touch any mullins horse that's standout top price with pp/ Betfair. Vvm in the mares market another that seems to good to be true

I won't go into detail but either they're traders are phenomenal or .......
interesting that the 2 in question seemed to walk past the gallops when samcro was working, when they cut from 16s to 8s before anyone else, or any news in public domain.

I do always take note of the prices however I can think of examples of them being biggest price then cutting to become shortest enough times to not use it as a hard-and-fast rule (just on the last few years!) but Betfair are top price every single horse until you get down to Top Notch, so I'll take my chances that they're just not taking much action on the race and want my pennies now.

It doesn't shock me to see Faugheen was biggest price with PP/Betfair and BetBright for a long time, even with the Ruby and Mullins interviews over the last few weeks

 

[Scooby91]

I do always take note of the prices however I can think of examples of them being biggest price then cutting to become shortest enough times to not use it as a hard-and-fast rule (just on the last few years!) but Betfair are top price every single horse until you get down to Top Notch, so I'll take my chances that they're just not taking much action on the race and want my pennies now.

It doesn't shock me to see Faugheen was biggest price with PP/Betfair and BetBright for a long time, even with the Ruby and Mullins interviews over the last few weeks

Agree with everything else. But pp bf were the 1st to cut faugheen from 8s to 6s before the news, that's when I took a Chance on him.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

With regards to Betfair, are you both able to put on e/way multiples, it's either they don't allow them on AP bets this year, or my account has been restricted, hoping the former, but also another reason why they may hold their prices longer as the e/way element has been taken out of multi's? Just a thought.

Tried getting on this morning and can't even do a e/way double :sorrow:

 

[Scooby91]

With regards to Betfair, are you both able to put on e/way multiples, it's either they don't allow them on AP bets this year, or my account has been restricted, hoping the former, but also another reason why they may hold their prices longer as the e/way element has been taken out of multi's? Just a thought.

Tried getting on this morning and can't even do a e/way double :sorrow:

I'm unaware myself, very rarely do antepost multiple. Win only singles for me.

However I did just try without confirming and it let me add large amounts in an ew double to the bet slip. Without coming up with the red message I sometimes get on singles with a simular return

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm unaware myself, very rarely do antepost multiple. Win only singles for me.

However I did just try without confirming and it let me add large amounts in an ew double to the bet slip. Without coming up with the red message I sometimes get on singles with a simular return

Cheers Scooby, must just be my account!!

 

[The Beast]

Had a bet on Great Field for this at attractive price on betfair 36/1 , taking gamble he turns up but think he got real class. His jumping worries me , but then again so did UDS jumping ,hopefully he settles a bit better now.

 

[Scooby91]

Had a bet on Great Field for this at attractive price on betfair 36/1 , taking gamble he turns up but think he got real class. His jumping worries me , but then again so did UDS jumping ,hopefully he settles a bit better now.

Great field would be the quickest horse in the champion Chase imo. Out of all the mullins horses I'd be absolutely certain he would stay over 2 miles. Id even be worried about him going too fast and cutting his own throat in the champion chase, like He did in the county hurdle.
He was extremely keen in his runs in France too.
However you could well prove me wrong.

 

[Kevloaf]

Cue Card, among the most popular horses in training, will head to Wetherby on Saturday for the bet365 Charlie Hall Chase in better shape than last year, according to trainer Colin Tizzard.

Tizzard, speaking in a Racing Post Stable Tour, saw the son of King's Theatre finish third in the Wetherby highlight 12 months ago, but hopes the nine-time Grade 1 winner can repeat his 2015 victory in the race.

The 11-year-old is then likely to try to emulate the mighty Kauto Star's record of four victories in the Betfair Chase at Haydock before another crack at Kempton's 32Red King George VI Chase.

Cue Card has, however, fallen in the last two Cheltenham Gold Cups, so his camp could target the Ryanair Chase, a race he won in 2013, this spring.

"I think he's better this autumn than he was 12 months ago," said Tizzard. "We took him to Wincanton for a gallop and he finished eight lengths ahead of a 155-rated horse.

"After Christmas it'll be Ascot [for the Ascot Chase] and then on to Cheltenham where we'd have a good think about the Gold Cup because he's fallen in it the last twice, and maybe the Ryanair is an option."

I assume people will see this through the day ... the last line seems conclusive enough that Cue Card will be heading here and he would have to have a big chance on previous form, so a lot will depend on how "much ability he retains" ... I took 36.0 on the exchange for 1pt but I'd consider him at shorter as this will surely be the target?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I assume people will see this through the day ... the last line seems conclusive enough that Cue Card will be heading here and he would have to have a big chance on previous form, so a lot will depend on how "much ability he retains" ... I took 36.0 on the exchange for 1pt but I'd consider him at shorter as this will surely be the target?

When Douvan turns up they may all scarper anyway ;-)

 

[Kevloaf]

Can't believe I've even taken the time to check that Douvan is a 10/1 shot for this race :highly_amused: