Ryanair Chase 2018

[The Beast]

If Douvan turns up here , I"ll run around Cleeve Hill starkers lol.

One bad run , in which reason was found. You have to remember previously how Mullins/Walsh enthuse about him.

Firmly of the belief its Champion or Gold Cup , I personally think they have been very coy and playing the hype down around Douvan well being deliberately and what distance he will run at this season.

 

[archie]

If Douvan turns up here , I"ll run around Cleeve Hill starkers lol.

One bad run , in which reason was found. You have to remember previously how Mullins/Walsh enthuse about him.

Firmly of the belief its Champion or Gold Cup , I personally think they have been very coy and playing the hype down around Douvan well being deliberately and what distance he will run at this season.

While the image is slightly disturbing :disgust:, I think that the reasoning and conclusion is pretty sound.

 

[Kevloaf]

While the image is slightly disturbing :disgust:, I think that the reasoning and conclusion is pretty sound.

At the risk of it sounding like I want to see The Beast in the nude.... I have to say I wouldn't be as effusive in saying it is one of the two?

Nobody (bar jono ) wants to see Douvan in this race... but it is a grade 1 that counts the same as any other... and I think Mullins and even moreso Walsh care about that...




Let us hope it is one of the many times I am wrong :very_drunk:

 

[archie]

Min and/or Djakadam are way more likely to run here as things stand now. From Ruby's point of view there's also UDS. So far in advance, 10/1 Douvan is laughable.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Min and/or Djakadam are way more likely to run here as things stand now. From Ruby's point of view there's also UDS. So far in advance, 10/1 Douvan is laughable.

Most ante post prices are laughable tbf, Tizzard for instance has actually come out and said that the QMCC is Fox Nortons target, yet the bookies install him as favourite, at least backing one of Min or Douvan in this based on your own opinion of which race they go for is something that neither trainer not owner have confirmed. Can't grasp how Fox Norton is favourite for this race given his trainers comments. Worse value than Douvan for me at this current moment.

 

[Kevloaf]

I agree about Fox Norton being a terrible price (common theme for me on this forum, knocking Fox Norton's ante post price haha), for anyone that hasn't seen the comments you're referring to: (to paraphrase)

The question is do we stop him up in trip? The answer is 'Do we need to?' ... Just touched off in CC having gained 6L from after the last. You do need stamina to win these big 2 mile chases and *2 mile division isn't the strongest*.
At Cheltenham the Ryanair might be the right race for him, but it doesn't have the prestige of the Champion does it. A flat out two miles might be what he needs.
Also says he'll have an entry in King George but owner has another for that

 

[ComplyOrDie]

And from the ATR stable Tour on 13/10/17 "He will go for his second crack at the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham after being beaten only a head in the race last March. He will take in the Shloer and the Tingle Creek and he will be given an entry in the King George too just in case the other horses don’t run there. The only time we stepped up in trip was at Aintree and he ran superb to win the Melling Chase over two and a half miles. He is a very classy horse and we will start at two miles but if gets beat a few times we will step him up in trip."

Even if he does get to this race it sounds like will only be the secondary option, won't be trained for it initially by the sounds of it.

 

[Kevloaf]

It does sound to me like Tizzard very much wants to find an excuse to step him up in trip :highly_amused:

Adds more fuel to the fire that Potts calls the shots though.

 

[The Beast]

While the image is slightly disturbing :disgust:, I think that the reasoning and conclusion is pretty sound.

lol , yes very disturbing.

 

[The Beast]

Cue Card may run in this listening to trainer , wouldn't be out of it even at his tender age. He seems to have been around forever , really hope if he doesn't show old sparkle they do the honorable thing and retire the stalwart.

 

[Kevloaf]

Cue Card may run in this listening to trainer , wouldn't be out of it even at his tender age. He seems to have been around forever , really hope if he doesn't show old sparkle they do the honorable thing and retire the stalwart.

The 25/1 each way about Cue Card seems more than generous if you're willing to take the chance that this IS the race he goes for.

I thought I was on to a beauty of a price win only at 36/1 (to trade out on) but 25/1 each way 1/4 the odds would certainly get me engaged as one I'd leave open.

Just such a hard race to get the shape of though

 

[Kevloaf]

Top Notch at 16s 1/4 the odds might be a play for me too after the weekends action.

Target is confirmed, and at the end of the 2018 festival, splitting Yorkhill and Disko over the same C&D might not look bad form AT ALL?

IF a superstar turns up, the race would cut up and you're still 4/1 a place?

 

[Scooby91]

Top Notch at 16s 1/4 the odds might be a play for me too after the weekends action.

Target is confirmed, and at the end of the 2018 festival, splitting Yorkhill and Disko over the same C&D might not look bad form AT ALL?

IF a superstar turns up, the race would cut up and you're still 4/1 a place?

Unless your laying of the win part, it only works out 6/4 for a place.

 

[Kevloaf]

Unless your laying of the win part, it only works out 6/4 for a place.

2/1 the place isn't it in real terms?

but yes you're right... I'd treat them as seperate bets by the time but my (our?) methods are different than the majority I think

 

[The Beast]

The 25/1 each way about Cue Card seems more than generous if you're willing to take the chance that this IS the race he goes for.

I thought I was on to a beauty of a price win only at 36/1 (to trade out on) but 25/1 each way 1/4 the odds would certainly get me engaged as one I'd leave open.

Just such a hard race to get the shape of though

Agree Kev a lot of twists and turns to play out and thats without the Mullins Bingo will he or wont he scenario.

 

[Scooby91]

Ie 10ew = 20 160 ÷ 4 = 40 + your 10 back = 50.
20 at 6/4 = 50. That's how I'd work it out anyway

 

[Kevloaf]

Ie 10ew = 20 160 ÷ 4 = 40 + your 10 back = 50.
20 at 6/4 = 50. That's how I'd work it out anyway

yes :encouragement: - I was thinking about 20/1 being 2/1 a place in real terms despite it being my own question haha

 

[Scooby91]

yes :encouragement: - I was thinking about 20/1 being 2/1 a place in real terms despite it being my own question haha

Haha.
I'm not a fan of ew at all this far out, as I'd be doubling my stake to get the returns I want. And I find I have little excitement of receiving the place money, I'd rather back multiple runners win only personally.


My only ew bets are melon CH 20s 1/4 to cover / top up winnings of faugheen 8s buveur dair 4s.

And min cc 12/1 1/4. As, if altior is sound he's very hard to beat.

I diddnt place a single ew bet last year.

 

[BigChaang]

Did you have many winners scooby ? , only wondered because i'm not so brave . although have supplemented a
few of my each way bets with a small win only this year.

 

[Kevloaf]

I think most people generally agree with that scooby.

I can't remember where it is on the forum now, might be a month or so back but we had a chat about it and I do back each way but only when there is no doubt in my mind about a target.... but for the same reason that you have for Melon in theory, so I can punt it on whatever I think will win the race as a form of "risk-free" bet (although obviously not risk free, as it might not place).. A better example would be Samcro 16s each way .... 6/4 the place :highly_amused: