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Ryanair 2019

Kevloaf said:
I suppose he's more unexposed, he hasn't met him yet so we don't KNOW (obviously it looks a bloomin' obvious case he can't)... whereas Min, we KNOW, cannot.
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Yup, but come Feb, if Min beats him over 2miles....surely that throws the targets up in the air again, given Footpad can defo run over further. Perhaps they'll all go to the Ryanair? Ruby wouldn't be too happy....

Mullins has Min, Footpad + UDS, they can't all avoid Altior...
 
Interesting words from Henry about Monalee:
'I did always think he was an out-an-out three-miler but at this stage I'm not so sure. We'll give three miles another go in the Irish Gold Cup and see how that goes. I think he deserves another shot at it.'
 
Huge respect for HDB but I can’t take his judgement of a preferred distance seriously since he had Sizing John spend 3 seasons over 2 miles only for the horse to join Jessie and win a Gold Cup....
 
archie said:
Interesting words from Henry about Monalee:
'I did always think he was an out-an-out three-miler but at this stage I'm not so sure. We'll give three miles another go in the Irish Gold Cup and see how that goes. I think he deserves another shot at it.'
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No other real option for him, I can see why they'd give it a go.

If he won it, they'd have a tougher decision to make
 
We're crushing Holding Ante Post this year :p

[FONT=&quot]Andy Holding | 08:43 Thursday 17th January 2019[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]One runner in particular has caught our racing expert's eye.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]In many respects, arguably the most difficult Grade 1 championship race of the Festival to get a handle on from an ante-post perspective largely due to the vast number of options open to many of the runners at this stage. However, in the likelihood that we could see another small field similar to last season, it makes sense to look towards this race with a degree more positivity and try and come up with angle on something that is firstly, likely to run, and secondly, has solid course form.Min looks to be the obvious candidate at first glance, but given that he’s still on course for the two-mile contest at the Dublin Racing Festival and it’s still inconclusive whether Cheltenham is his track, Willie Mullins’ gelding makes little appeal at his current price. Of the other two possible entries for the Co Carlow handler, Footpad remains on the easy list after suffering a setback on his seasonal return and brilliant though Un De Sceaux has been for connections over the years, he did get well put in his place last year by Balko des Flos and no 11-year-old has ever won the race.Since winning this race last year, Balko Des Flos has be regarded as a slight disappointment and unless he comes back to life in the Irish Gold Cup next time out, he’s hard to fancy with any degree of confidence. Henry De Bromhead does, however, have a potentially intriguing contender for this race in the shape of MONALEE (best price 8-1 NRNB) despite going down the same route at time of writing, and the eight-year-old makes the most appeal of those towards the top of the betting for several reasons. Firstly, connections seem to have spent quite a while trying to put a square peg in a round hole with the son of Milan when he blatantly looks like he doesn’t get three miles over fences at Championship level and secondly, the way he travels and jumps, he looks tailor made for the examination of the Ryanair on the New Course.Campaigned as an RSA horse as a novice last season, the strapping gelding ran a brave race at the Festival to be second to Presenting Percy, but having travelled like the best horse for a long way, the long climb up the hill in testing ground found him out. Similar comments also apply to his only other Cheltenham visit in the previous season’s Albert Bartlett when chasing home Penhill and the big issue regarding his stamina once again reared its ugly head at Leopardstown last time out. Again, everything went smoothly for him through the early part of the race at the Dublin venue, but once asked for maximum effort rounding the home turn and on the run-in, he just simply didn’t have the answers to the stronger-staying winner Kemboy. Likely to be given another go to get the trip in the Irish Gold Cup in a few weeks’ time, only a convincing win would see him staying over three miles and even so, it’s hard to envisage him charging up the hill in the Gold Cup on soft ground over the stiffest 3m 2f in the land. Surely, therefore, a likely defeat at Leopardstown can only leave him with one option left were he to be aimed at Cheltenham and that has to be the Ryanair. Either way, with the NRNB option in place with several firms, it makes sense to take advantage of that offer and back this classy chaser prior to his next engagement in the hope that he runs well, but not well enough to book his ticket to the blue riband in two months’ time.

[/FONT]
 
Hard to know whether to laugh or cry at 'expert' comments like the above. All the pundits have been slagging off the Savills as a dawdle or muddled pace - when in fact it was a slow first mile and a decently fast final 2 miles - and voicing doubts about Kemboy's staying ability. Now, because it suits them he's suddenly become a 'stronger-staying winner'. The truth is that, before the final fence, he was ahead of 5 G1 winners who were already all rowing away and who all finished at much the same pace while he was putting an extra few lengths between him and them.

Monalee didn't lose because he didn't stay, he lost to a better horse on the day and the same comment applies to the RSA and the Albert Bartlett. He may well end up in the Ryanair and he may well run well there but the Savills run has zero relevance.
 
archie said:
Hard to know whether to laugh or cry at 'expert' comments like the above. All the pundits have been slagging off the Savills as a dawdle or muddled pace - when in fact it was a slow first mile and a decently fast final 2 miles - and voicing doubts about Kemboy's staying ability. Now, because it suits them he's suddenly become a 'stronger-staying winner'. The truth is that, before the final fence, he was ahead of 5 G1 winners who were already all rowing away and who all finished at much the same pace while he was putting an extra few lengths between him and them.

Monalee didn't lose because he didn't stay, he lost to a better horse on the day and the same comment applies to the RSA and the Albert Bartlett. He may well end up in the Ryanair and he may well run well there but the Savills run has zero relevance.
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Have to go along with all of that...
 
Istabraq said:
Huge respect for HDB but I can’t take his judgement of a preferred distance seriously since he had Sizing John spend 3 seasons over 2 miles only for the horse to join Jessie and win a Gold Cup....
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That's a bit harsh on HDB given Sizing John ran 2nd to Douvan 5 times over 2 miles.
 
when in fact it was a slow first mile and a decently fast final 2 miles - and voicing doubts about Kemboy's staying ability.

Archie
I am not specifically disagreeing with this as i haven't looked at the sectionals myself....but i haven't come across a times person who has suggested it turned into a strongly run race from 2 miles out yet?
 
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It was the fastest final circuit in the last 11 runnings and irishracing.com says:
'Time 6m. 6.50 secs, which is 14.12 secs faster than the course average on today's going'
 
Wasn't a test of stamina was it. He quickened from 2 out and got them all off the bridle.
 
Rather my point in using it as an argument about Monalee's stamina. Monalee was not done for stamina.
 
Look at the size of Bellshill compared to The Storyteller. Makes him look like a pony.
 
charlie said:
That's a bit harsh on HDB given Sizing John ran 2nd to Douvan 5 times over 2 miles.
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I can’t remember the last Gold Cup winner who won the race in his 4th season chasing and who was primarily a 2 miler before winning the blue ribband.
I was and still am dumbfounded that at no point under his tenure did HDB see Sizing John as a stayer, after all, he knows exactlt what’s needed to win over 2 miles
 
archie said:
when in fact it was a slow first mile and a decently fast final 2 miles
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This answers quite a bit for me and only aids the run of a horse like Bellshill, who some have accused of being slow.

Which horse out of that whole field would you back in a 2m race? That 1st mile could have been written off and Kemboy definitely done them for pace IMO.

The Gold Cup won't be a plod for the first mile, it will be a true test of speed and stamina.

The race comments for Kemboy read "held up early, soon mid-division, swift progress to lead before 8th, pressed 5 out, joined before 2 out, led travelling best early straight, ridden last, kept on strongly run to go clear" obviously genius by David Mullins to take the race by the scruff of the neck when there was no pace to it, but ultimately it was a 2m race and he had the quickest of them horses for that particular race style.

I know you'd prefer Kemboy in the Ryanair, and I agree, that is his right race, but will WPM do that when he has Min (who I'm sure he'd love to get a festival win for), UDS (who is the stables apple) and potentially Footpad too (though unlikely IMO), I highly doubt it.
 
If the races were next week I think you'd see Willie's major contenders:

QM - Footpad and maybe UDS
Ryanair - Min, Invitation Only and maybe UDS
GC - Al Boum Photo, Bellshill and Kemboy

All that could change with the DRF (or the quality of last night's wine in the Lord Bagenal).
 
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