Mum's Tipple 66-1 (80-1 boost)
Looks over priced for tomorrows last race. Taking the claims into account he had to give 9lbs last time to Vafortino (10-1 best price tomorrow).
He gets 8lb tomorrow so a 17lb swing. (have to factor in that the jockey is very much unproven and probably needs his 7lb though, especially vs Benoit, who looks a better prospect so far)
Still a big swing though, especially as their seemed to be a big high number draw bias in the victoria cup last time and Mum's Tipple was drawn 1, he finished just 6 lengths back and was running on as well as most after being very near last 2/3f out, he had switched in behind from his low draw as they all came across to the stand rail. For a keen horse wanting to get on with it this was never going to help but the draw probably forced the jockeys hand. A very similar story in the same race for todays Hunt cup winner Dark Shift (drawn 3 that day) who did similar to today and was dragged in behind but never got the cover or early pace he probably wanted and finshed a half length or so in front of Mum's Tipple.
Tipple is drawn 10 tomorrow so might not need to move much after the start and their doesn't look a great deal of early pace in the runners tomorrow (main early speed looks to be in 17.18.19)
This might just negate the high draw bias a little, but maybe not. High drawn horses over the straight 7f/8f at ascot do seem to have an edge although they sometimes don't some to the stand rail like in todays Hunt Cup. And the pace horses being drawn central may help the cause.
The favourite Montassib might be really good as he looked very useful last time at Goodwood, but he's drawn in 1.
Dance Fever has slightly similar claims to Tipple having been drawn low last time also and this time he might just be able to get a lead from the 2 godolphin horses up the stand side rail from his stall 31. Both Godolphin horses are dangers also, with class and the draw in their favour.
To be honest, it's a 32 runner handicap draw bias race at Royal Ascot and you could make a case for many.
Maybe 66-1 is a fair price after all.:stupid:
Ground should definitely suit though and he won on debut at ascot.
His mark is now back down to a realistic one having had to race in group and listed races after shitting the bed on his second start as a 2yr old at York and getting rated 116 for his trouble.
He's been running in handicaps the last 3 times and can excuse all the runs for one reason or another and after starting off rated 103 in handicaps- he's just 96 now and has a claimer taking off an additional 7lb (probably needs it though as he's unproven)
I think they feel they can win a big handicap with him and hopefully it's tomorrow.
Anyhow I ramble too much for a lottery of a race, good luck and good night. :highly_amused::apologetic:
