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Related Bets (ideas)

Lobos said:
The BANC needs to be covered as well for peanuts as he's got the French Gold Cup as a future target.
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Yeah probably wise to do so tbf, and likely will just to have that route covered at least.. But don't see him going 3m this spring, not in March anyway
 
The "JP owned" combinations I'd really have to be sure they're related

JP owned horses have bumped into each other time and time again, and will continue to

Different stables can use their own jockeys, it's really hard to say that because JP had one novice he'd move them to another race (obv I know it's a team effort I just CBA writing it all out as I'm saying nothing 'new')


In short I don't think Inoko's target has literally any affect on any other horse in training, unless Greenhall has a JP owned one as well that I don't know about.

Not knocking the selections for anyone that has backed Evesham Road etc - just a musing on the related-ness in terms of that adding any value :excitement:
 
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Agree Kev. JP's very happy to just send them to the race that suits them best as opposed to splitting.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I'd agree to an extent but Fact To File, Iroko and Corbett Cross are highly unlikely to all run in one race at the festival so I think you can mix and match the three of them between the two races (I don't think they'll be Arkle or NHC horses).

It won't suit everyone's style of betting because some of the bets are automatically losers but if does have the potential to pay off handsomely if they connect at current prices. If it doesn't work out then I'll put it down as a value loser!:devilish:

At the moment I've done the Iroko and Corbett's Cross double for both races but tempted to add FTF (T) with Iroko and Corbett's Cross (BANC).
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My point is more though that are we getting any additional value by working out the combination

I don't see how one affects the others price

Inoko, the trainer comments were saying they'll stay at intermediate unless it's good ground

Fact To File runs for Willie and that means potentially Mark Walsh on so literally no impact on Inoko's target ....



Again, don't dislike any of the selections, you're just not actually getting any additional value are you?

They just look nice :lemo::kiwi-fruit::lemo::kiwi-fruit:



You are the king of the multi though big man so I'll back down :sorrow:
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
They are loosely related so there might be a smidgeon (first time I've wrote that word ever!) of value. If we go with the theory that they won't all run in one race, then there is an element of a related bets to it. Although, when we factor in the losing bets from picking the wrong combos it probably wipes out any additional value.

I've gone full circle - you're right. They do look good bets though:barbershop_quartet_member:
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Haha, I agree, if you knew where one would run and therefore could nail the other, it would work....

Having to cover it both ways doesn't mean it's value, but I'll do plenty of similar bets.



I didn't really have a point :distant: as per :loyal:
 
Pleased to have stimulated debate!

I think I would accept that JP combos are less related than some owner combos. But I wouldn't accept that they're completely unrelated, as I find it very hard to picture a scenario where e.g. Inthepocket, Fact To File, Iroko and Corbetts Cross all run in the Turners whilst he has no representatives in either the Arkle or Brown Advisory. He might be less in the habit of splitting his runners, influenced by sheer weight of numbers, but I think there's still an element of it. I have no statistical analysis to support this 'conclusion'.

I also accept that some of the value is extinguished by covering multiple combinations of runners. But, since plenty of us do this with runners from different stables/ owners for the same race in various different doubles and other multiples as part of our antepost strategy, I don't think we'd be extinguishing value to any greater extent by covering multiple combinations of single owner runners vs multiple combination of single stable runners or in fact multiple combinations of any horse for the same combination of races.

And so I feel that there remains an element of value in the approach. :)
 
Evesham Road said:
Pleased to have stimulated debate!

I think I would accept that JP combos are less related than some owner combos. But I wouldn't accept that they're completely unrelated, as I find it very hard to picture a scenario where e.g. Inthepocket, Fact To File, Iroko and Corbetts Cross all run in the Turners whilst he has no representatives in either the Arkle or Brown Advisory. He might be less in the habit of splitting his runners, influenced by sheer weight of numbers, but I think there's still an element of it. I have no statistical analysis to support this 'conclusion'.

I also accept that some of the value is extinguished by covering multiple combinations of runners. But, since plenty of us do this with runners from different stables/ owners for the same race in various different doubles and other multiples as part of our antepost strategy, I don't think we'd be extinguishing value to any greater extent by covering multiple combinations of single owner runners vs multiple combination of single stable runners or in fact multiple combinations of any horse for the same combination of races.

And so I feel that there remains an element of value in the approach. :)
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I think that's perfectly fair

One of the 'owner' related angles is usually that a jockey follows them, or it's a stable number 1

I think with your JP ones you pretty much have to nail them to be getting any additional value, otherwise you are just backing multiples ... and that 'strategy' is one which means a lot of people don't make money (not on here, I know we do on this forum) but just a general way to punt it's really difficult.... bigger odds doesn't mean more value (I know you've not said that by the way, I'm rambling) :victorious:




If you had to pick a JP Arkle / BANC / Turners / NH Chase horse now.... where do you think you'd end up?
 
The other factor that will influence JP's horses destinations is season form.
If one is head and shoulders above then this will certainly influence.
Jockey availability, ground etc, but my point earlier was that Berry and JP are likely to have a say in Iroko's race, and it is unlikely to be completely left to the trainer's.

The most sensible related double would be the 2 Irish based horses though as if Walsh is fit and keeps the ride on them both all season this will likely have a sway.
They may well let the UK trainers choose in that situation.
 
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A JP double strategy has to be a dangerous one, his chequebook is rarely closed.
He’ll be buying at the French sales and will no doubt offer to buy just about every promising novice hurdler that looks like a potential G1 festival horse, his festival team won’t be set until the Imperial Cup is in the books…
 
Quevega said:
The most sensible related double would be the 2 Irish based horses though as if Walsh is fit and keeps the ride on them both all season this will likely have a sway.
They may well let the UK trainers choose in that situation.
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That's the best starting point to this conundrum I've seen so far. Makes sense.
 
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Quevega said:
The other factor that will influence JP's horses destinations is season form.
If one is head and shoulders above then this will certainly influence.
Jockey availability, ground etc, but my point earlier was that Berry and JP are likely to have a say in Iroko's race, and it is unlikely to be completely left to the trainer's.

The most sensible related double would be the 2 Irish based horses though as if Walsh is fit and keeps the ride on them both all season this will likely have a sway.
They may well let the UK trainers choose in that situation.
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Would both go off fav even then? Or shortest priced JP owned? If Mark Walsh was on ... I don't think so :chuncky:


Any JP/Mullins horse that was deemed their best chance scuppers things as well and Paul would jump on (like he does with "Double Green")?


JP will have about 4 winners, and we can have a NRNB yankee cos it'll be Iroko in the Ultima etc :lemo::kiwi-fruit: :devilish:
 
Kevloaf said:
Would both go off fav even then? Or shortest priced JP owned? If Mark Walsh was on ... I don't think so :chuncky:


Any JP/Mullins horse that was deemed their best chance scuppers things as well and Paul would jump on (like he does with "Double Green")?


JP will have about 4 winners, and we can have a NRNB yankee cos it'll be Iroko in the Ultima etc :lemo::kiwi-fruit: :devilish:
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Isn’t Mark Walsh the only one who gets pull over Townend? So assuming FTF is the best 3mile chaser at Willie’s Walsh would ride (unlike with Daryl Jacob and all other stable jockeys).
 
Exar Essay said:
Isn’t Mark Walsh the only one who gets pull over Townend? So assuming FTF is the best 3mile chaser at Willie’s Walsh would ride (unlike with Daryl Jacob and all other stable jockeys).
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I'd have to see that happen to believe it?

Can't think of any example where Mark Walsh has ridden a Mullins horse that went off shorter than Paul's ride

(There may well be one!)


Then again, I can't think of Paul riding any JP / Mullins horses off the top of my head either...
 
Kevloaf said:
I'd have to see that happen to believe it?

Can't think of any example where Mark Walsh has ridden a Mullins horse that went off shorter than Paul's ride

(There may well be one!)


Then again, I can't think of Paul riding any JP / Mullins horses off the top of my head either...
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There’s not been too many truly top class ones these last few years thinking about it has there.

The ones which spring to mind are Elimay and Gentleman De Mee rides where Townend has either been on the 2nd fav or not riding at all despite being at the meeting. In the big races though, Willie’s always seemed to have a great 2nd fav like Colrevy to Elimay in the Mares Chase.
 
Exar Essay said:
There’s not been too many truly top class ones these last few years thinking about it has there.

The ones which spring to mind are Elimay and Gentleman De Mee rides where Townend has either been on the 2nd fav or not riding at all despite being at the meeting. In the big races though, Willie’s always seemed to have a great 2nd fav like Colrevy to Elimay in the Mares Chase.
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Yeah fair enough, they're solid enough examples to not have to worry about Willie

Then again, not like he had one in the mix to get involved either!

Still, all the best anyone on them....

Look forward to more related doubles - easily my favourite thread :cool:
 
Kevloaf said:
I think that's perfectly fair

One of the 'owner' related angles is usually that a jockey follows them, or it's a stable number 1

I think with your JP ones you pretty much have to nail them to be getting any additional value, otherwise you are just backing multiples ... and that 'strategy' is one which means a lot of people don't make money (not on here, I know we do on this forum) but just a general way to punt it's really difficult.... bigger odds doesn't mean more value (I know you've not said that by the way, I'm rambling) :victorious:




If you had to pick a JP Arkle / BANC / Turners / NH Chase horse now.... where do you think you'd end up?
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Arkle - Inthepocket
Turners - Fact To File
Brown Advisory - Iroko, Corbetts Cross
NH Chase - No idea!
 
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Did connections not say early doors that they bought Corbetts Cross to one day be a Grand National horse ? Perhaps he's JP's NHC dart.
 
Lobos said:
Did connections not say early doors that they bought Corbetts Cross to one day be a Grand National horse ? Perhaps he's JP's NHC dart.
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Not sure JP will have a dart, hasn't in the last 4 NHC's, hasn't since the race was last run over further than the current distance, something in that?
 
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