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Related Bets (ideas)

One related double I've added recently is El Fabiolo Champion Chase and Energumene Ryanair best price 63/1.

Energumene essentially got away with it last year, despite looking as though he desperately needs a step up in trip. He only beat the 11 year old Chacun Pour Soi an all out three quarters of a length, in a desperately poor renewal. And prior to that he'd fluffed his lines around HQ losing to Editeur du Gite at the trials meeting. Basically because he's not as quick as he once was, and in my opinion needs to go up in trip.

After his novice season everyone thought he was going to be a Ryanair horse the following season, but Willie kept him at two miles and he kept winning in what has retrospectively not been a vintage division. He's a three mile pointer, and bred for two and half to three miles. Essentially he has more of a Gold Cup pedigree than a Champion Chase pedigree, although (whilst I won't compltely discount it), he's unlikely to turn up there.

I'm sure some may say it's a bad bet because he'll go back to try to win the race a third time. I get it, and that would be the case for most yards. But this is Willie Mullins, and there's no room for sentiment with Willie. He'll just go to the race he has the best chance of winning. And with El Fab in the way he isn't winning the Champion Chase. The Ryanair however looks very weak, so I think. Plus he's owned by Tony Bloom. Bloom is mister analytics and he certainly doesn't do sentiment. He's sharp enough to know that step up in trip is Energumene's best chance of becoming a 3 time Grade 1 Festival winner. I think Energumene only end up in the Champion Chase if something happens to El Fabiolo. And even then I suspect Jonbon would beat him.

On that basis he's probably worth a bet with cashout bookies for the Ryanair at 20/1. Plus, it'll only take Willie casually saying somethign like 'we also have the option of going out in trip' in one of the stable tours and he'll be 6/1. Essentially though, he will go to the Ryanair because El Fab stands in his way and there's nothign around to beat El Fab at the moment. Therefore I think the related double is an obvious alterantive to the single. I took the slightly reduced odds of 55.65/1 to access cashout which feels like the sensible way to play it. At that price it's an easy way to cover the possibility of him going for the Ryanair, and still be able to get out for no loss if need be.
 
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Spectre said:
. I took the slightly reduced odds of 55.65/1 to access cashout which feels like the sensible way to play it. At that price it's an easy way to cover the possibility of him going for the Ryanair, and still be able to get out for no loss if need be.
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Would you still have the bet if you had no cashout Spectre
WHat would be your advice to those punters?
 
Istabraq said:
Would you still have the bet if you had no cashout Spectre
WHat would be your advice to those punters?
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I'd want cashout if it were available to me Istabraq. At the price it should be an easy one to get out of if it became necessary. He'll stay quoted in the market at that price or less, unless he beats El Fabiolo somewhere which feels very unlikely. Being turned over himself at 2 miles doesn't feel impossible though given how vulnerable he looked last season.

Obviously at somewhere around 60/1 there's plenty of upsides on the double, and not a lot to lose for a relatively small stake. Also based on most of the diaries I've read, they already include novice hurdlers and chasers that still don't have named targets, may not end up being good enough, or even go to the Festival at all, it seems like a better value bet than any of those. If anyone wants a cast iron certain target though I understand why it wouldn't be for them.

To anwer your question specifically though, I'd say on balance the odds are easily in favour of it being a bet even without cashout. In this case I'd say Energumene is a better than 1 in 3 chance of switching, and would be not more than 4/1 (probably less). El Fabiolo will be 4/6 at best and probably shorter. The longest price I can make the likelihood therefore is 33/1, although I beleive it to be shorter. Therefore, he can be backed in the double with El Fab at almost double or better than the chance of it being a winning bet. And essentially, if you do enough of these educated small outlays for nice returns you'd be ahead over time anyway.
 
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Spectre said:
I'd want cashout if it were available to me Istabraq.

To anwer your question specifically though, I'd say on balance the odds are easily in favour of it being a bet even without cashout.
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I'm sure everyone would love cashout but it's not a tool I've had for years so it doesn't enter my mind, I have to decide what the probability is of a winning bet rather that whether I can trade for a profit or get rid for no loss if announcements go against you.
As a massive El Fabiolo fan, and one who still feels the 2/1 or even 7/4 represents some value in what will be a weak division this year, it's really about whether Energumene makes the step up and you have given sound reason this is more than possible.
I'll swing by Hills later, 2/1 and 20/1 makes a 62/1 double.
Thanks for highlighting...
 
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Yeah I like it, for those with the option the Sky 70.5/1 is worth considering if anyone still manages to get free bets too

Have added :barbershop_quartet_member: Cheers Spectre
 
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Looks potentially how it could play out although I think Spectre has mentioned the punchestown champion chase which confused me for a second

Would take one or two things to happen I reckon as a two time winner and winner by 10 lengths in 2023.

If they don’t rubber stamp going for a third I’d be surprised and I’d also be surprised if they run El Fabiolo against him prior to March.

But if he wasn’t quite the same and El Fab looks great then the ground might play a part, the jockey etc

Odds are worth taking but probably a value non runner
my favourite bet
 
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….I’m thinking Flooring Porter/Letsbeclearaboutit but I’m not sure which races.
 
I was quite taken by Iroko yesterday. Also a fan of Fact To File and on the basis he is chasing this season and they're in the same ownership, I have therefore done Turners/ Brown Advisory doubles with these two horses. There's still a bit of lumpiness in the prices available for each in each race meaning that best odds for the Iroko - Turners/ Fact To File - Brown Advisory are 224/1 at Denise's and for Fact To File - Turners/ Iroko - Brown Advisory are 254/1 at Joe's.

Of course you could bring Inthepocket into the mix and end up with more combinations either also using that horse in the Turners or additionally also bringing the Arkle in and doing some trebles. But that creates a much more significant outlay, and I don't personally see Inthepocket as the likely Arkle or Turners winner and wanted mainly to increase returns for success of two horses I am more taken by as well as covering the eventuality they end up in the opposite races to my own preference (Fact To File - Turners/ Iroko - Brown Advisory).
 
Evesham Road said:
I was quite taken by Iroko yesterday.
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Yes, solid enough effort.
My issue particularly with the novice markets at this time of year is any half decent performance always sees an overreaction by bookmakers, it doesn't take much for the value to disappear altogether.
I'm thinking that bar a couple of darts I'll wait until they've not only been seen on a track, but been seen against good horses and a clearer yardstick is available.
Then you have the issue of the Irish showing their hand and have to make a judgement whether the UK form can compete with the Irish.
The sensible option is to hold fire, but few of us, me included, are sensible all the time...
 
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Evesham Road said:
I was quite taken by Iroko yesterday. Also a fan of Fact To File and on the basis he is chasing this season and they're in the same ownership, I have therefore done Turners/ Brown Advisory doubles with these two horses. There's still a bit of lumpiness in the prices available for each in each race meaning that best odds for the Iroko - Turners/ Fact To File - Brown Advisory are 224/1 at Denise's and for Fact To File - Turners/ Iroko - Brown Advisory are 254/1 at Joe's.

Of course you could bring Inthepocket into the mix and end up with more combinations either also using that horse in the Turners or additionally also bringing the Arkle in and doing some trebles. But that creates a much more significant outlay, and I don't personally see Inthepocket as the likely Arkle or Turners winner and wanted mainly to increase returns for success of two horses I am more taken by as well as covering the eventuality they end up in the opposite races to my own preference (Fact To File - Turners/ Iroko - Brown Advisory).
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Nearly did the same but there’s Corbetts cross also
 
Quevega said:
Nearly did the same but there’s Corbetts cross also
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Aye same I mixed around 4 all JP yokes in some doubles/trebles.

Could see 2 of the 4 turning up in the same race. I don’t think any of these 4 are NHC spuds

I’d have It as:

Arkle - Inthepocket
Looks like he’d handle turners no problem but with a field to cut up and improvement over fences to come, paired with Henry liking a runner here I can see JP having him here.

Fact To File - Turners
a good few of willies novice chasers all seam to lean towards the 3m+ category, F2F isn’t a slow horse and could see him going turners -> gold cup route. Was mentioned as a possible Ballymore horse and I think to go straight over fences you don’t wanna be slogging him at 3m this season in my opinion, obviously dependent on how others perform for willie in that 3m category.

Iroko/Corbetts Cross - BANC
Thought Iroko looked class yesterday though I did see someone say it was 30s slower than average. I’m not a clock watcher but the eye test certainly looked awesome. Corbetts Cross is a hard one to place with e.mullins. Various trips last season and especially after what he did jumping out I haven’t been mad to back him. He always was regarded as a future GC/GN horse.
 
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Quevega said:
Nearly did the same but there’s Corbetts cross also
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Yes; I'd personally be more invlined to do combinations involving Corbetts Cross than Inthepocket. You can get about 30/1 on any combination of those three winning Brown Advisory and Turners.
 
Don’t think JP has won Arkle or QM? So must want a chance if poss ….hence agree with above on Inthepocket going Arkle
 
Just have to let it unfold now

If inthepocket gets thumped again by facile and/or marine nationale can't imagine they'd be overly enthusiastic to take them on again at the festival
 
Quevega said:
Nearly did the same but there’s Corbetts cross also
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Just did the Iroko/Turners & Corbetts Cross/BANC double myself. That's how I'm thinking ATM.
 
There's still other jp horses that could influence the race targets of those mentioned above too.

Zenta for example you would imagine they'd target the mares chase with, but if impervious recovers in time then she or dinoblue could be enough for him in that and zenta could be arkle/turners bound.

Will also be interesting to see if Indiana dream is mentioned in the rp tour, was impressive in his maiden hurdle win and looked every inch a 3m chaser but had a setback and missed the spring festivals. If he's recovered I could see him developing into a BANC type too.
 
Zenta only a 4yo so don't think they'll target the Mares Chase with her this season. Instit wasn't thrown into the deep end at the Festival in March and she was the same age with limited Chase experience.
 
Did combinations of the Frog double today involving Theleme Stayers & Il Est Francais Turners/BANC......pays.........a lot.
 
Lobos said:
Zenta only a 4yo so don't think they'll target the Mares Chase with her this season. Instit wasn't thrown into the deep end at the Festival in March and she was the same age with limited Chase experience.
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Instit just wasn't very good though in the lead up to the festival and would have went there as an outsider. If zenta is very impressive over fences I don't see why age would have any bearing on them avoiding a grade 2. Different stables but riviere detel did well as a four year old novice chaser and ran in the arkle.
 
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