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Queen Mother Champion Chase 2020

Craigy14 said:
You’re probably both right and I think the same that he’ll struggle to beat all 3 of the big guns.

FM how would it be 2/1 to place out of interest? If he’s 25/1 at 1/5 of the odds it’s 5/1 to place. Or are you taking it down as he’s unlikely to beat all 3?

As Q also says it is Nicholls he knows how to win it, he is only 7 so plenty improvement could be expected.
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If you have a £1 ew on at 25/1 and he places, you get £6 back, having staked £2 = effectively 2-1

edit - F-M obviously a high stakes punter :highly_amused:
 
Aye I’m with you :highly_amused:

Clicked after I wrote it just didn’t bother editing.
 
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Was just dismissing the win part of the bet as he was unlikely to and thinking how 2/1 when he was 25/1 :highly_amused:

I’m away to walk the dog, get some fresh air :encouragement:
 
Quevega said:
If you have a £1 ew on at 25/1 and he places, you get £6 back, having staked £2 = effectively 2-1

edit - F-M obviously a high stakes punter :highly_amused:
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These real odds are the reason I don’t back each way :encouragement:
 
Saxon Warrior said:
These real odds are the reason I don’t back each way :encouragement:
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Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Agreed, not a hard and fast rule but tend to look at E/W @33/1 1/4 and 40/1 1/5....each to their own of course
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Very much depends on whether that 2/1 is value doesn't it.

Silly to rule out a bet at 2/1 just on the basis it's 2/1.

2/1 might be tremendous value.




More often than not though, it's probably not :highly_amused:
 
I think the way to look at it is this:

Would you take 2/1 in a match race with Chacun? I personally wouldn’t.
Would you take 2/1 in a match race with Defi? I personally wouldn’t.
Would you take 2/1 in a match race with Altior? I personally wouldn’t.
 
Craigy14 said:
Can’t wait for this race and it may be one just to watch as it has the makings to be one of the best in many many years!

But I was trying to find an angle of some value as the front 3 have all sort of been short enough in the betting. I know cps was around 8/1 start of the season and drifted after his comeback defeat but Dynamite Dollars at 25/1 could surely be a value e/w play?

I know he is a lot to make up with the front 3 but if we rewind back 12 months I don’t think anyone seen past the front 3 in the betting of the Champion Hurdle at the time. His comeback run last weekend was good given the long lay off and he barely did anything wrong in his novice season. If one of the front 3 don’t perform for whatever reason I reckon DD could pick up the pieces and run a place or better still if all 3 underperform win.

Does anyone think it’s a value bet or just nailed with the front 3?
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Would be more of an interest in the ryanair, 33s seems more sensible, nichols has mentioned the possibility.
 
Middle_Of_March said:
I think the way to look at it is this:

Would you take 2/1 in a match race with Chacun? I personally wouldn’t.
Would you take 2/1 in a match race with Defi? I personally wouldn’t.
Would you take 2/1 in a match race with Altior? I personally wouldn’t.
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That’s a good way to look at it indeed.

I haven’t backed much each way, only the handicaps really.
 
Craigy14 said:
That’s a good way to look at it indeed.

I haven’t backed much each way, only the handicaps really.
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It is NRNB though (and if you have cash out).
So I wouldn't put you off the bet as what if one or two of the principals pull out ?
You'd then be sat pretty.
If they don't, then you'd probably be able to cash for money back. If you wanted
 
Quevega said:
It is NRNB though (and if you have cash out).
So I wouldn't put you off the bet as what if one or two of the principals pull out ?
You'd then be sat pretty.
If they don't, then you'd probably be able to cash for money back. If you wanted
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be careful with this approach because once you're account is restricted cash out is gone.
 
Craigy14 said:
You’re probably both right and I think the same that he’ll struggle to beat all 3 of the big guns.

FM how would it be 2/1 to place out of interest? If he’s 25/1 at 1/5 of the odds it’s 5/1 to place. Or are you taking it down as he’s unlikely to beat all 3?

As Q also says it is Nicholls he knows how to win it, he is only 7 so plenty improvement could be expected.
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Maybe worth asking Skybet for a special for him just to be place, they may give you 4 or 5s so your £20 could give you £100 based on 4/1
 
Something to think about I suppose.

Don’t see his price changing over next few days.

Just think he could be the one to pick up the pieces if any of the top 3 don’t perform.
 
Not backed him myself.

But anyone who has backed Cilaos Emery for this race.
Is cashout still available. ??
 
I've just cashed out a patent with him Saldier and Carefully Selected in the NH Chase for a nice profit and reinvested some back into CS.
 
Ten-time Grade 1 winner Un De Sceaux has been retired due to a suspensory ligament injury. (Racing post)
 
Shame that as conditions looked like they would’ve perfect for UDS. A fantastic horse and one of my all times favourites especially after his Ryanair win in 2017
 
Gutting to see him go out like that. Great horse, hope he has a long and happy retirement
 
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