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Queen Mother Champion Chase 2020

Pendil said:
doesn't quite work for me Jono. You say that if Defi wins Sat he goes 5/1 but if Politologue wins he goes 10/1. I just feel that Politologue is a value bet in the Tingle Creek and put a small bet on the double to give extra interest
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Pendil - Im not saying Politilogue will be specifically 10/1 if he wins the Tingle Creek, I was going on the price Lobos stated.

But I'd have no doubt that Defi is a shorter price for the CC IF he wins than Politilogue is IF he wins. So yes I would have a difference between the pair if they both achieved the same outcome in the Tingle Creek. You only have to look at the fact one there is 15pts difference between the pair as it stands.

Q - I think there is a time and place for them...at the right price and like you say more so if you haven't got a horse onside. But it's far from often. I'll always check what I perceive the prices will be after the first leg and more often than not it doesn't work out. And even if it does, at times it's only because the bookies will over shorten the odds after said race, not actually what they should be.
 
quevega said:
Perfect conditions and pace likely for Defi Saturday.
Should stamp his authority, and win impressively.
It's a stiff old finish from that Pond fence.
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Just have this hunch that the extra pace in this race with Urnua and UDS piling it on and the fences coming ultra quick will put pressure on his rythm/jumping and force him into errors. Maybe completely wrong but don't see him in first 2.
 
Lobos said:
Just have this hunch that the extra pace in this race with Urnua and UDS piling it on and the fences coming ultra quick will put pressure on his rythm/jumping and force him into errors. Maybe completely wrong but don't see him in first 2.
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All horses can put in a bad one every now and then, so it could happen to a hold up horse like him.
But he's classy, and I think he may be taking a pull after some of the fences in the last mile. Apart from the railway fences obviously.
 
quevega said:
All horses can put in a bad one every now and then, so it could happen to a hold up horse like him.
But he's classy, and I think he may be taking a pull after some of the fences in the last mile. Apart from the railway fences obviously.
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If he's taking a pull anytime during Saturday's race then I'll take back my opinion that he's not a Grade 1 2 miler.
 
quevega said:
Perfect conditions and pace likely for Defi Saturday.
Should stamp his authority, and win impressively.
It's a stiff old finish from that Pond fence.
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That’s how I see it playing out
 
I think Sky Bet already know the T Creek result.........Defi slashed into 5/1 for Champion Chase with them today !!!
 
Read through all that and no closer to forming my opinion on the Tingle Creek.




Just looking at the market and typing as I go, bottom to top.





Ornua isn't a stupid price at 50/1 but can't be good enough unless he properly steals the race.

Dolos won't win it. Dismissing him as I Don't rate Janicka and he's not better than him.

Waiting Paitently? Ground? Forms actually not very good with the benefit of hindsight and his rating too looks inflated?

Janicka that I really, really don't like. Middle distance horse, won't be quick enough. Place lay.


Sceau Royal at 6/1 looks a fair each way price but I think I can't rule out any of the 3 higher in the betting from placing either.... so can't back that.

Politilogue I really like as a horse, good right handed (better at least) and has some decent form lines to draw on. As above though, can't be a bet to nothing each way because I like more than 2 others.

Un De Sceaux is easily the best of these on his tip top form however that tip top form can't be used expected to be reproduced with any confidence. His 2m Heavy/Soft record is stunning, and this isn't those circumstances. I love UDS though and would love him to win it. WIll defo back him NRNB for the QMCC when it's an option in the hope of a monsoon. Fair price at 9/2 too

Defi Du Seuil - Worthy fav? Perhaps... looks too short for me to back when I like the next 3 in ... I think he'll be better over further too. I've never actually been a fan of his jumping. Over hurdles he was rubbish over them to start with but had an engine. Better over fences but not electric, my gut tells me he isn't a 2 mile chaser (or his optimum isn't that).... I'd probably oppose him in a QMCC, so I'm probably going to lean AWAY from that 14/1 double that people have highlighted.




So shortlist is on of Sceau Royal, Politilogue, Un De Sceaux all Each Way for the Tingle Creek with Defi for the Ryanair....



See how much my mind changes in the next 24 hours...
 
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Kevloaf said:
Read through all that and no closer to forming my opinion on the Tingle Creek.

Let's go off track, what price would Altior be in this race? :highly_amused:
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1-2.......
 
Kevloaf said:
Read through all that and no closer to forming my opinion on the Tingle Creek.

Let's go off track, what price would Altior be in this race? :highly_amused:
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Evens. After his last run.
 
Pendil said:
Waiting Patiently is over priced just backed@ 15/1 ew boosted with Lads.
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Over priced based on what piece of form?
Jan 2017 beating Politilogue?
Beating Cue Card when he was over the hill at 2m4f?


The horses he beat over 2miles were Burtons Well (staying chaser) and Forest Bihan (handicapper)

Stepped up in trip since....

I can't see the value myself?
 
Pendil said:
Waiting Patiently is over priced just backed@ 15/1 ew boosted with Lads.
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Can't believe that anyone can back that animal on what he's done or hasn't done should I say.
 
Lobos said:
Can't believe that anyone can back that animal on what he's done or hasn't done should I say.
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Tbf you've backed ornua. Be surprised if hes not last unless something falls. Or pulls up.
 
Scooby91 said:
Tbf you've backed ornua. Be surprised if hes not last unless something falls. Or pulls up.
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I've not backed him but do feel he is very underated on what he achieved last season. His run at Sandown v Dynamite Dollars was very exciting but that was eclipsed by his exhilarating win at Aintree. He had a good prep finishing 2nd and giving nearly a stone to Cilaos Emery on his reappearance and I expect him to run a big race from the front on Saturday whilst expecting something to come and beat him. I don't expect that something to be Waiting Patiently on what he has produced. Politiologue would be my winner if I was betting.
 
Lobos said:
I've not backed him but do feel he is very underated on what he achieved last season. His run at Sandown v Dynamite Dollars was very exciting but that was eclipsed by his exhilarating win at Aintree. He had a good prep finishing 2nd and giving nearly a stone to Cilaos Emery on his reappearance and I expect him to run a big race from the front on Saturday whilst expecting something to come and beat him. I don't expect that something to be Waiting Patiently on what he has produced. Politiologue would be my winner if I was betting.
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I don’t think you could be that confident on Ornua being underrated Lobos. He had not a bad season last year, against, let’s be honest some poor horses over 2mile.

2nd in a terrible Arkle
Won at Aintree terrible Novice chase (only just beat Us And Them who has stepped up and done nothing since)
PU at Puchestown against the good novice horses
Hammered by Cilaos on return, yes giving 11lbs but was hammered nearly 10 lengths

He’s priced up accordingly as the outsider and most likely won’t get close to a place
 
Kevloaf said:
Read through all that and no closer to forming my opinion on the Tingle Creek.




Just looking at the market and typing as I go, bottom to top.





Ornua isn't a stupid price at 50/1 but can't be good enough unless he properly steals the race.

Dolos won't win it. Dismissing him as I Don't rate Janicka and he's not better than him.

Waiting Paitently? Ground? Forms actually not very good with the benefit of hindsight and his rating too looks inflated?

Janicka that I really, really don't like. Middle distance horse, won't be quick enough. Place lay.


Sceau Royal at 6/1 looks a fair each way price but I think I can't rule out any of the 3 higher in the betting from placing either.... so can't back that.

Politilogue I really like as a horse, good right handed (better at least) and has some decent form lines to draw on. As above though, can't be a bet to nothing each way because I like more than 2 others.

Un De Sceaux is easily the best of these on his tip top form however that tip top form can't be used expected to be reproduced with any confidence. His 2m Heavy/Soft record is stunning, and this isn't those circumstances. I love UDS though and would love him to win it. WIll defo back him NRNB for the QMCC when it's an option in the hope of a monsoon. Fair price at 9/2 too

Defi Du Seuil - Worthy fav? Perhaps... looks too short for me to back when I like the next 3 in ... I think he'll be better over further too. I've never actually been a fan of his jumping. Over hurdles he was rubbish over them to start with but had an engine. Better over fences but not electric, my gut tells me he isn't a 2 mile chaser (or his optimum isn't that).... I'd probably oppose him in a QMCC, so I'm probably going to lean AWAY from that 14/1 double that people have highlighted.




So shortlist is on of Sceau Royal, Politilogue, Un De Sceaux all Each Way for the Tingle Creek with Defi for the Ryanair....



See how much my mind changes in the next 24 hours...
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UDS for me... seems enough rain around today for the ground to be OK for him... if he reproduce his Punchestown run, think he’ll be very hard to peg back and might run the finish out of the rest at the trip.
 
Kevloaf said:
Over priced based on what piece of form?
Jan 2017 beating Politilogue?
Beating Cue Card when he was over the hill at 2m4f?


The horses he beat over 2miles were Burtons Well (staying chaser) and Forest Bihan (handicapper)

Stepped up in trip since....

I can't see the value myself?
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More so it was his beating of Politologue Feb 19 when 2nd to the awesome Cyrname. Interesting coming back in trip
 
Backed Sceau Royal E/W (dirty), just because he goes really well fresh.

If he does win then that price for the festival would likely be gone, not that he interests me from a win perspective for that.
 
Ornua beat Cadmium last season and also finished close 2nd to him giving weight. Cadmium ain't a bad horse and went onto win easy at Aintree beating Janika a long way. On a line through him, Ornua should not be nearly 6x Janika odds. He will well outrun his 50/1 odds
 
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