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PADDY POWER PLATE Handicap Chase

Jonjo pulling his two out of the Pertemps after everything else he's ran has died on its arse wouldn't bode particularly well for Crebilly.
 
Bonjers said:
Jonjo pulling his two out of the Pertemps after everything else he's ran has died on its arse wouldn't bode particularly well for Crebilly.
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Monbeg lost a shoe and had a rough race, Bill Joyce was not good enough, finished in the right places through a form line with Royal Infantry. He had a winner yesterday by 6l. Jonjo is doing ok.
 
Oneman94 said:
Monbeg lost a shoe and had a rough race, Bill Joyce was not good enough, finished in the right places through a form line with Royal Infantry. He had a winner yesterday by 6l. Jonjo is doing ok.
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Lots of money came for Bill Joyce and he ran no race, surely a concern there
 
…..post #1 updated with initial entries and trend analysis.
 
….looks like Ginny’s coming here;

‘We are going to run him in the TrustATrader Plate on the Thursday and hope he comes back to form. He tends to like Cheltenham and he likes the New Course. I thought on last year’s form we would be vying for the Ryanair. He is still in the Ryanair, but now he has dropped down a bit, we won’t run him in that.

I think he is paying for having some hard races last season. I’d say he is just coming back to himself. He is in the Ultima, but the owners can’t go on that day, but I think we will leave going three miles until next season.

He is not slow. We took him to Lambourn before the start of the season and Nico de Boinville rode him and he said he wouldn’t be lost in the Haldon Gold Cup as he is not slow.

He just hasn’t had his way this year. He hasn’t been able to get in front jumping and getting into a rhythm. I do think next season he will be going three miles, but we will leave that until then. It is hard carrying 12 stone in those handicaps when everyone is following you.

Last season was a bit easier as he started down in the handicap and crept through it. He did run well in two Grade Ones in the spring, but he had two very hard races.’
​
 
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Eggs said:
….looks like Ginny’s coming here;

‘We are going to run him in the TrustATrader Plate on the Thursday and hope he comes back to form. He tends to like Cheltenham and he likes the New Course. I thought on last year’s form we would be vying for the Ryanair. He is still in the Ryanair, but now he has dropped down a bit, we won’t run him in that.

I think he is paying for having some hard races last season. I’d say he is just coming back to himself. He is in the Ultima, but the owners can’t go on that day, but I think we will leave going three miles until next season.

He is not slow. We took him to Lambourn before the start of the season and Nico de Boinville rode him and he said he wouldn’t be lost in the Haldon Gold Cup as he is not slow.

He just hasn’t had his way this year. He hasn’t been able to get in front jumping and getting into a rhythm. I do think next season he will be going three miles, but we will leave that until then. It is hard carrying 12 stone in those handicaps when everyone is following you.

Last season was a bit easier as he started down in the handicap and crept through it. He did run well in two Grade Ones in the spring, but he had two very hard races.’
​
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If that was Gordon or Dan saying that about one of their own id be lumping on..
 
25/1 in the ante post market for Ginny's Destiny .... these are the ones that lure me in and then don't even run

16/1 NRNB versus 25/1 ante post ..... risk it?
 
Kevloaf said:
25/1 in the ante post market for Ginny's Destiny .... these are the ones that lure me in and then don't even run

16/1 NRNB versus 25/1 ante post ..... risk it?
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25s all day, you've just been told that's where he goes, if you like the horse you have to take the 60% bigger price surely...
 
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Kevloaf said:
25/1 in the ante post market for Ginny's Destiny .... these are the ones that lure me in and then don't even run

16/1 NRNB versus 25/1 ante post ..... risk it?
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Keen on GD Kev. Hope they turn up, wasn't long ago you could get 25's NRNB, so nice to see some money has come for him since then.

I'd still go 25's AP now that Nicholls has come out and said that's the target.
 
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  1. Conflated (IRE) 12 0 157
  2. Gentleman de Mee (FR) 11 13 156
  3. Sa Fureur (IRE) 11 12 155
  4. Springwell Bay 11 11 154
  5. Firefox (IRE) 11 7 150
  6. Zanahiyr (IRE) 11 7 150
  7. Pinkerton (IRE) 11 6 149
  8. Ginny’s Destiny (IRE) 11 6 149
  9. American Mike (IRE) 11 5 148
  10. Jordans (FR) 11 5 148
  11. Fugitif (FR) 11 5 148
  12. Dee Capo (FR) 11 3 146
  13. Path d’Oroux (FR) 11 2 145
  14. Shakem Up’arry (IRE) 11 2 145
  15. Il Ridoto (FR) 11 2 145
  16. Midnight River 11 2 145
  17. Colonel Harry (IRE) 11 2 145
  18. La Malmason (IRE) 11 1 144
  19. Masaccio (IRE) 11 1 144
  20. Marble Sands (FR) 11 0 143
  21. Life In The Park (IRE) 11 0 143
  22. Gemirande (FR) 10 13 142
  23. Seddon (IRE) 10 12 141
  24. Tahmuras (FR) 10 12 141
  25. San Salvador (IRE) 10 10 139
  26. Light N Strike (IRE) 10 10 139
  27. So Scottish (FR) 10 10 139
  28. Jagwar (FR) 10 10 139
  29. Grandeur d’Ame (FR) 10 10 139
  30. Thecompanysergeant 10 10 139
  31. Crebilly (IRE) 10 9 138
  32. The Other Mozzie (IRE) 10 9 138
  33. What’s Up Darling (IRE) 10 9 138
  34. Ha d’Or (FR) 10 8 137
  35. Personal Ambition (IRE) 10 8 137
  36. Riaan (IRE) 10 7 136
  37. Mars Harper 10 7 136
  38. Western Zephyr (IRE) 10 6 135
  39. Jazzy Matty (FR) 10 6 135
  40. Moon D’Orange (FR) 10 6 135
  41. Panic Attack (IRE) 10 6 135
  42. An Peann Dearg (IRE) 10 5 134
  43. Midnight It Is 10 5 134
  44. Lord of Thunder (IRE) 10 5 134
  45. Third Time Lucki (IRE) 10 5 134
  46. Shantreusse (IRE) 10 5 134
  47. Law Ella (IRE) 10 4 133
  48. Theatre Man (IRE) 10 3 132
  49. Guard Your Dreams 10 3 132
  50. Es Perfecto (IRE) 10 3 132
  51. Kotmask (FR) 10 3 132
  52. The Short Go (IRE) 10 3 132
  53. Lounge Lizard 10 2 131
  54. Galop de Chasse (FR) 10 1 130
  55. Issar d’Airy (FR) 10 1 130
  56. Torn And Frayed (FR) 9 13 128
  57. Straw Fan Jack 9 12 127
  58. Demnat (FR) 9 12 127
  59. Individualiste (FR) 9 7 122
​
 
….Colonel Harry OFTS, a blow to my ‘one horse, one race’ :chargrined:
 
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Eggs said:
….Colonel Harry OFTS, a blow to my ‘one horse, one race’ :chargrined:
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Still got a couple of nice ones though in the Comp Eggs, like Busselton at 50/1! :barbershop_quartet_member:
 
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….Crebilly;

’He is in the two-and-a-half-mile Plate and the three-mile one furlong Ultima and, again, it is hard to say as they could be watering Cheltenham in two weeks’ time. He ran a great race last year in the Plate. If he could go there in the same sort of form this time, he would go there with a great chance. He seems in good form, and we are happy at this stage. (Jonjo & AJ O’Neill)​
 
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Shakem Up'arry

3rd off 139
1st off 143

Now rated 145

25/1 - definitely one I'll be looking at on day of race markets with extra places
 
According to Gaultstats the last 6 winners have all won at Cheltenham that season. That should reduce what to back by plenty :highly_amused:

Qualifiers purely based on this stat:

Springwell Bay
Path D'Oroux
Il Ridoto
Gemirande
Jagwar
Moon D'Orange

By the sounds of it the bottom two are going for the novices race on the same day, so just back the other four, right? Well, the last 11 winners have been rated between 140-149, so that takes Springwell Bay out of the equation too.

Just three to go!

10 of the last 11 had not run in more than 12 chases. Goodbye Gemirande & Il Ridoto.

Your winner? Path D'Oroux!

And no, I haven't backed him....yet!
 
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Where have you heard this about Moon D'Orange? He was my horse for the Plate. Haven't backed him yet though
 
ComplyOrDie said:
According to Gaultstats the last 6 winners have all won at Cheltenham that season. That should reduce what to back by plenty :highly_amused:

Qualifiers purely based on this stat:

Springwell Bay
Path D'Oroux
Il Ridoto
Gemirande
Jagwar
Moon D'Orange

By the sounds of it the bottom two are going for the novices race on the same day, so just back the other four, right? Well, the last 11 winners have been rated between 140-149, so that takes Springwell Bay out of the equation too.

Just three to go!

10 of the last 11 had not run in more than 12 chases. Goodbye Gemirande & Il Ridoto.

Your winner? Path D'Oroux!

And no, I haven't backed him....yet!
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Is it actually where he runs? I came to similar conclusion on trends and then thought it was the race that made least sense for him...
 
Gavin mentioned the novices race for Path Droux, he is actually a novice.
 
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Benjy23 said:
Is it actually where he runs? I came to similar conclusion on trends and then thought it was the race that made least sense for him...
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Gavin has repeatedly said about stepping him up in trip. Completely unexposed over the trip, having never run over it. Not sure if he ends up here or the novices chase though.

Also, just to note, he's had 13 chase starts, so he's actually going to have to bust that stat, but the other two had had way more starts than him!
 
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