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PADDY POWER PLATE Handicap Chase

Saxon Warrior

Saxon Warrior

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TO CLOSE BY NOON ON FEBRUARY 18th

CHELTENHAM

Thursday, March 13th

THE PADDY POWER PLATE HANDICAP STEEPLE CHASE
(Premier Hcap)

TOTAL RACE VALUE GBP 150,000

Distributed in accordance with Stakes and Prize Money Code
GBP 84,405 to the winning horse
The second to receive GBP 31,800,
the third GBP 15,915,
the fourth GBP 7,950,
the fifth GBP 3,990,
the sixth GBP 1,995,
the seventh GBP 990
and the eighth GBP 510.

for five yrs old and upwards
TWO MILES ABOUT FOUR AND A HALF FURLONGS (2m 4f 127yds)

Enter by noon, February 18th and pay GBP 225 stake
Confirm by noon, March 7th and pay GBP 525
Declare by 10.00 a.m. March 11th

Weights published on February 23rd

Penalties, after February 23rd, 2025, a winner of a steeple chase 5lb
(No penalty to increase a horse’s weight above 11st 12lb)


PLEASE NOTE: A novice horse shall only be qualified to run in this race if it has run a minimum of FOUR times in Steeple Chases in Great Britain, Ireland or France in accordance with paragraph 15 of the Weights and Handicapping Code​








2025. Jagwar 6-10-10 3-1f Greenhall Guerriero - JJ O’Neil jr RPR 151
2024. Shakem Up'arry 10-11-5 8/1 Ben Pauling - Ben Jones RPR 153

2023. Seddon 10-10-9 20/1 Jon McConnell - Ben Harvey (5) RPR 154
​
2022. Coole Cody 11-11-2 22/1 Evan Williams - Adam Wedge RPR 157

2021. The Shunter 8-10-5 9/4F Emmet Mullins - Jordan Gainford (7) RPR 154

2020. Simple The Betts 7-11-4 10/3F H. Whittington Gavin Sheehan RPR 158

2019. Siruh Du Lac. 6-10-8. 9/2. Nick Williams. Lizzie Kelly (3). RPR 151

2018. The Storyteller. 7-11-4. 5/1F. Gordon Elliott. Davy Russell. RPR 161

2017. Road To Respect. 6-10-13. 14/1. Noel Meade. B J Cooper. RPR 161

2016. Empire Of Dirt. 9-10-11. 16/1. C A Murphy. B J Cooper. RPR 154

2015. Darna. 9-10-11. 33/1. Kim Bailey David Bass. RPR 148

2014. Ballynagour. 8-10-9. 12/1. David Pipe. T. Scudamore. RPR 156



2025 1st OR 139, 2nd OR 139, 3rd OR 144; 4th OR 136 (High OR 157, Low OR 131) 20 ran
2024 1st OR 143, 2nd OR 140, 3rd OR 133, 4th 139 (High 152, Low 130) 21 ran
2023 1st OR 143, 2nd OR 149, 3rd OR 139, 4th OR 137 - High 157, Low OR 133, 23 ran
2022 1st OR 145, 2nd OR 152, 3rd OR 136, 4th OR 144 - High 155, Low OR 132, 15 ran
2021 1st OR 140, 2nd OR 146, 3rd OR 154, 4th OR 143 - High 154, Low OR 130, 21 ran
2020 1st OR 149, 2nd OR 149, 3rd OR 152, 4th OR 147 - High 157, Low OR 140. 23 ran
2019 1st OR 141, 2nd OR 156, 3rd OR 147, 4th OR 137 - High 156, Low OR 135. 22 ran
2018 1st OR 147, 2nd OR 137, 3rd OR 139, 4th OR 138 - High 155, Low OR 137. 22 ran
2017 1st OR 145, 2nd OR 146, 3rd OR 145, 4th OR 133 - High 158, Low OR 133. 24 ran
2016 1st OR 142, 2nd OR 149, 3rd OR 150, 4th OR 135 - High 157, Low OR 135. 22 ran
2015 1st OR 140, 2nd OR 138, 3rd OR 141, 4th OR 146 - High 155, Low OR 137. 23 ran
2014 1st OR 140, 2nd OR 146, 3rd OR 140, 4th OR 148 - High 157, Low OR 131. 23 ran



Clearly it seems that this race has had a boost in the quality of the runners with the lowest ratings rising in the last six years and 140+ horses taking over the winning from 130+.

The cancelling of the Novice Handicap Chase could lead to more novices rated above 140 targeting this race, which could drive up the Lowest OR required to get a run up by a 1lb or 2.
----------​










…..2025 TREND ANALYSIS for reference;

1) OLDER HORSES WORTH FOLLOWING;
While nine of the last 12 winners of the race has been aged between seven and ten, it is worth noting that each of the last three winners have been between ten and eleven.

Meanwhile, there hasn’t been a seven-year-old winner of the race since Simply The Betts in 2020. Shakem Up’Arry was the second straight winner to be aged ten to win the race. That could be a potentially damning trend for six-year-old Jagwar in 2025.

2) POOR RECORD OF FAVOURITES;
It’s hard to ignore the poor record of favourites in the TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase. Only three of the last 12 winners were favourites, while only a further winner over this period was found in the top three in the betting.

In each of the last two runnings of the race, the post-time favourite has failed to complete the course. Meanwhile, there have been two winners priced up at 20/1 or bigger since 2022.

3) CHELTENHAM EXPERIENCE;
​Prior experience around Cheltenham could be a key trend worth following. All but threeof the winners of the TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase since 2013 have had at least one run at the track.

Meanwhile, half of the last 12 winners have previous winning experience at Cheltenham

4) OFFICIAL RATINGS;
Shakem Up’Arry became the eleventh straight winner of the race to be rated at 140+when he won off 143 in 2024.

However, horses rated between 143 and 145 hold the best record in recent memory, with each of the last three being rated between those marks. The highest rated winner since 2013 was Simply The Betts off 149 in 2020 for trainer Harry Whittington.
​
5) CHASING EXPERIENCE ESSENTIAL;
Having runs over fences to your name is essential when assessing the TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase field. All but two of the winners since 2013 have had at least five starts over the bigger obstacles.

Meanwhile, nine of the last 12 winners have at least two chase wins to their name. Staying the distance is also vitally important, with all winners since 2013 having previous experience over two miles and four.
​
​


Positives - Pre-2025 Festival

* The past 11 winners were rated in the 140s
* The past 9 winners had contested a Graded novice hurdle or novice chase
* The past 6 winners had won at Cheltenham earlier in the season

* 18 of the past 24 winners were aged 9 or younger (none of the past 3)
* 14 of the past 19 winners ran on or after 25th January
* 12 of the past 20 had run 9 times or less over fences

* 6 of the past 9 winners were in their first or second season over fences (none of the past 3)
* 6 of the past 9 winners won last time out
* 5 of the past 7 winners were sent off at 8-1 or shorter

* Racing prominently is a huge plus
* Respect course form
* Respect David Pipe-trained runners
* Respect Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners


Negatives - Pre-2025 Festival

* Only 2 winners this century carried more than 11-4
* Only 2 of the past 20 winners had run in more than 12 chases
* Only 3 of the past 21 winners failed to run in the calendar year

​
​
--------​








Early Entries in the Plate Handicap Chase at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival:
  1. American Mike (IRE)
  2. An Peann Dearg (IRE)
  3. Colonel Harry (IRE)
  4. Conflated (IRE)
  5. Crebilly (IRE)
  6. Dee Capo (FR)
  7. Demnat (FR)
  8. Es Perfecto (IRE)
  9. Firefox (IRE)
  10. Fugitif (FR)
  11. Galop de Chasse (FR)
  12. Gemirande (FR)
  13. Gentleman de Mee (FR)
  14. Ginny’s Destiny (IRE)
  15. Grandeur d’Ame (FR)
  16. Guard Your Dreams
  17. Ha d’Or (FR)
  18. Il Ridoto (FR)
  19. Individualiste (FR)
  20. Issar d’Airy (FR)
  21. Jagwar (FR)
  22. Jazzy Matty (FR)
  23. Jordans (FR)
  24. Kotmask (FR)
  25. La Malmason (IRE)
  26. Law Ella (IRE)
  27. Life In The Park (IRE)
  28. Light N Strike (IRE)
  29. Lord of Thunder (IRE)
  30. Lounge Lizard
  31. Marble Sands (FR)
  32. Mars Harper
  33. Masaccio (IRE)
  34. Midnight It Is
  35. Midnight River
  36. Moon D’Orange (FR)
  37. Panic Attack (IRE)
  38. Path d’Oroux (FR)
  39. Personal Ambition (IRE)
  40. Pinkerton (IRE)
  41. Riaan (IRE)
  42. Sa Fureur (IRE)
  43. San Salvador (IRE)
  44. Seddon (IRE)
  45. Shakem Up’arry (IRE)
  46. Shantreusse (IRE)
  47. So Scottish (FR)
  48. Springwell Bay
  49. Straw Fan Jack
  50. Tahmuras (FR)
  51. The Other Mozzie (IRE)
  52. The Short Go (IRE)
  53. Theatre Man (IRE)
  54. Thecompanysergeant
  55. Third Time Lucki (IRE)
  56. Torn And Frayed (FR)
  57. Western Zephyr (IRE)
  58. What’s Up Darling (IRE)
  59. Zanahiyr (IRE)
​
 
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Blue Sari is my early fancy

Almost feels a bit obvious but I had him pencilled in for this as soon as I saw his chase debut behind farouk d'alene
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Blue Sari is my early fancy

Almost feels a bit obvious but I had him pencilled in for this as soon as I saw his chase debut behind farouk d'alene
Click to expand...

Same for me. My concern is that JP doesn't tend to bother with this race and Willie doesn't tend to have successful handicap chasers!
 
…..Sky have removed their handicap RaB offers but one remains for this race;

Fanion Destruval @ 14-1
 
One that I've been thinking of for this is Lifetime Ambition. Had the surprise win in his first start this season beating Beacon Edge and Vanillier, before being beaten a long way back in the Drinmore. Then he was out over 2m and was thrashed by Blue Lord. He's now entered in the Bob Olinger race on Sunday where he'll almost certainly be beaten again, if he takes up the entry. Could they be eyeing up a handicap for him? Thought this race could suit, he fits a couple of the trends, right age range, novice, would be his first run at Cheltenham.

Obviously I'm assuming he isn't just a busted flush after that first race, which he could be, but I'd be disappointed if so.
 
I've requested prices with Bet365 and Paddy Power to add Papa Tango Charly to the market for this.

Bet365 - 25/1

Paddy Power - 20/1

Will Hill - 25/1

I think the 25/1 is a little bit skinny considering he's only won 2 low level handicaps going right handed.

current OR 145, does anyone know the condition of the horse?
 
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JamieSensible said:
I've requested prices with Bet365 and Paddy Power to add Papa Tango Charly to the market for this.

Bet365 - 25/1

Paddy Power - TBC

I think the 25/1 is a little bit skinny considering he's only won 2 low level handicaps going right handed.

current OR 145, does anyone know the condition of the horse?
Click to expand...

145 may have been enough to put him away until the Festival. They could possibly find a conditions race to run in that wouldn’t effect his mark if they want to get another run in. He looks so much better over fences and of his PTP performance is to be taken literally then 145 could be very workable still.
 
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JackieMoon33 said:
145 may have been enough to put him away until the Festival. They could possibly find a conditions race to run in that wouldn’t effect his mark if they want to get another run in. He looks so much better over fences and of his PTP performance is to be taken literally then 145 could be very workable still.
Click to expand...

I think he needs to run 3 times over fences to qualify so needs to come out again before the festival.
 
DenmanSacre said:
I think he needs to run 3 times over fences to qualify so needs to come out again before the festival.
Click to expand...

I wasn’t sure on that given he’d run in handicaps already over fences. Someone posted a link recently when there was a discussion on Jonbon going for the Betfair but I can’t find it.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I wasn’t sure on that given he’d run in handicaps already over fences. Someone posted a link recently when there was a discussion on Jonbon going for the Betfair but I can’t find it.
Click to expand...

Think that was Jetoile JM not Jonbon.
 
Lobos said:
Think that was Jetoile JM not Jonbon.
Click to expand...

Ah I thought someone referenced Jonbon having a mark already but a certain class of handicap required a third run? I could be going mad as it’s all a blur on here right now trying to keep up.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Ah I thought someone referenced Jonbon having a mark already but a certain class of handicap required a third run? I could be going mad as it’s all a blur on here right now trying to keep up.
Click to expand...

It was , and that's correct.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Do you know if that applies to this race and PTC will need a third run?
Click to expand...

All Cheltenham handicaps.
I've not read the whole conversation.
So to be clear it's 3 runs, not 3 runs in the season.
Just in case anyone's confused.

So yes he needs another run, having just looked at his form.
 
Quevega said:
All Cheltenham handicaps.
I've not read the whole conversation.
So to be clear it's 3 runs, not 3 runs in the season.
Just in case anyone's confused.
Click to expand...

Roger. So as it stands he'll need to run over fences once more to be eligible as, despite having a mark, he's only run twice over fences in his career.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Roger. So as it stands he'll need to run over fences once more to be eligible as, despite having a mark, he's only run twice over fences in his career.
Click to expand...

:encouragement:
 
Surely got to give fusil raffles a decent chance in this. Can get 22s with willhill boost and I think that’s worth chancing. Has a great record at Cheltenham and wasn’t beaten far when favourite the last day after making a notable mistake. Dropped another 1lb to 151 now. Same connections have gone close in this race in recent years with top notch off 154 and janika off 156. Also given the fact the handicapper seems to be giving the Irish horses harsher marks
 
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