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New Years Day and your State of Play - Questions

Kevloaf

Kevloaf

Apparently came 3rd overall in the Fantasy Premier
Staff member
Joined
Aug 15, 2016
Messages
33,259
Reaction score
7,374
Points
1,000
Age
38
Location
Cheshire
Happy New Year all - I thought today would be a good day to ask a few questions :)
(Points refer to your own staking plan, as actual amounts can muddy and affect judgement for the rest of the forum)

... and feel free to ask any other better questions!

1. Your Total 'Points' Staked is?
632.3 pts

2. How many points are Non-runners already? (not including cashed out):
20.4 pts

3. Highest stake on a horse in a single?:
I have 9 points on Footpad (4.5 e/w) in the QMCC and Ryanair both NRNB

4. Race most looking forward to (Not as a betting race):
RSA Chase - not original but this looks a mighty renewal and hopefully can set up some epic clashes over the next few years with whoever wins this year going to take on the Gold Cup winner (Percy!)

5. Who is your BANKER?
Altior. Just has no competition. Apple's Jade probably next best if I wasn't backing the odds on shot.

6. If you had to LAY a fav now:
Envoi Allen in the Champion Bumper cos he ain't gonna run :devilish: (Although I don't lay 1/6 shots)

7. Bet you're happiest with:
Tough one, I suppose on recent events, Angel's Breath at 33/1 2 pts e/w Supreme.

8. Worst bet you've placed (non runners don't count)
Black Op in the JLT at 13/1 - hopefully bounces back tomorrow but price wasn't big enough before debut, so certainly isn't after it.
 
Happy New Year, Kev & All!


1. Your Total 'Points' Staked is?

Day 1 - 37
Day 2 - 34
Day 3 - 32.5
Day 4 - 29

Any - 107
Multi - 11
Dead - 25.5

Total - 276



2. How many points are Non-runners already? (not including cashed out):

25.5pts



3. Highest stake on a horse in a single?:

13pts - Santini (a/r@ 13 & 12/1)



4. Race most looking forward to (Not as a betting race)

RSA - See the 2020 GC winner in action (I hope) :devilish:



5. Who is your BANKER?

Altior - Same reasons as Kev



6. If you had to LAY a fav now

Kalashnikov - I don't think he'll have the pace for an Arkle (Me hoping they think that, too)



7. Bet you're happiest with

Santini



8. Worst bet you've placed (non runners don't count)

Great Field - CC
 
1. Your Total 'Points' Staked is?
125pts

2. How many points are Non-runners already? (not including cashed out):
14

3. Highest stake on a horse in a single?:
Tiger Roll 10pts to win any race @ 5/1

4. Race most looking forward to (Not as a betting race):
RSA. Not just because I have the top of the market covered, but there are so many horses in with a shout and it should be a terrific race.

5. Who is your BANKER?
Tiger Roll XC

6. If you had to LAY a fav now:
Min, Ryanair. 2m5f at Cheltenham will be his toughest test to date and I think him and Footpad will switch anyway.

7. Bet you're happiest with:
Quick Grabim @ 50's for the supreme or Lalor 33's for the Arkle.

8. Worst bet you've placed (non runners don't count)
Smashing into Envoi Allen @ 33/1 when Gordon has said he wont go there.
 
1. 140
2. 7 (plenty more to come though)
3. Samcro, Buveur D'air, Apples Jade, Presenting Percy all 5+ points.
4. The RSA
5. Altior
6. Kalashnikov - he's not a 2 miler imo.
7. My RSA bets - TOTG 28/1, Santini 13/1 & Delta Work 17/1.
8. Samcro to win any race. Jeez.
 
Kevloaf said:
Happy New Year all - I thought today would be a good day to ask a few questions :)
(Points refer to your own staking plan, as actual amounts can muddy and affect judgement for the rest of the forum)

... and feel free to ask any other better questions!

1. Your Total 'Points' Staked is?
632.3 pts

2. How many points are Non-runners already? (not including cashed out):
20.4 pts

3. Highest stake on a horse in a single?:
I have 9 points on Footpad (4.5 e/w) in the QMCC and Ryanair both NRNB

4. Race most looking forward to (Not as a betting race):
RSA Chase - not original but this looks a mighty renewal and hopefully can set up some epic clashes over the next few years with whoever wins this year going to take on the Gold Cup winner (Percy!)

5. Who is your BANKER?
Altior. Just has no competition. Apple's Jade probably next best if I wasn't backing the odds on shot.

6. If you had to LAY a fav now:
Envoi Allen in the Champion Bumper cos he ain't gonna run :devilish: (Although I don't lay 1/6 shots)

7. Bet you're happiest with:
Tough one, I suppose on recent events, Angel's Breath at 33/1 2 pts e/w Supreme.

8. Worst bet you've placed (non runners don't count)
Black Op in the JLT at 13/1 - hopefully bounces back tomorrow but price wasn't big enough before debut, so certainly isn't after it.
Click to expand...



1 I will work it out but not this morning.

2 2pts but made more from cashing some. Which I haven't counted as profit. got 1 poss 2 in the same race, that's very likely to be that I need to cash on better terms available. And also gordons bumper horse that may be.
Allaho may also be if he dosent go over hurdles.

3 paisley park stayers hurdle 25/1. 66pts win.
The one that cost me my account in search of cashout profit. Will likely cash atleast 80% of it to leave a free bet. But depending on results beforehand might be mad enough to leave it. As that's 100% a life changer. Need to do some thinking what price he'd be after the cleeve. If he bombed.

4 champion hurdle looks an open year to me. But buveur dair could still hack up. Iv a feeling he won't. But hard to back against him.

5.
when he gets his run. Will likely be cilaos emery ew arkle. But I'll go
Adjali ew triumph hurdle.

6 if I had to choose 1 and had to be fav.
Epatante .


Would rather lay laurina both same reason. Beat nothing at all very easily. Both horrendous prices imo.


7. Probably happiest at the decision to back tornado flyer for both. As id be pannacking now as I think he'll skip naas and go for the Moscow flyer. 5/1< for the supreme.

8 chacun pour soi arkle.
Allaho any race a poor one if he dosent go over hurdles now.
 
1. 49 points staked (including free bets)

2. 4U down(All Hollowgraphic) plus 1.5U gone in multi where atleast 1 leg is down already

3. 4U on Penhill and he’s in a couple of multi

4. Probably the RSA looks the most competitive, but I’d love Apples Jade to turn up in the stayers and see if she can run the finish out of Penhill

5. Altior, I think Mullins will actively avoid with his best

6. Eptante and/or Envoi Allen, both 6/1 and I don’t think either turn up in the race let alone win it

7. A £5 treble on Penhill, Buveur D’air and Presenting Percy. First bet I placed after the festival, haven’t even seen two of them but the races are starting to fall by the wayside and open up for all three to win

8.Labaik 1.5U for the champion hurdle. I’ve got a lot of horses in the gold cup at 3 figures who look bad but at minimum stakes so Labaik because I put actual money down
 
Kevloaf said:
Happy New Year all - I thought today would be a good day to ask a few questions :)
(Points refer to your own staking plan, as actual amounts can muddy and affect judgement for the rest of the forum)

... and feel free to ask any other better questions!

1. Your Total 'Points' Staked is?
632.3 pts

2. How many points are Non-runners already? (not including cashed out):
20.4 pts

3. Highest stake on a horse in a single?:
I have 9 points on Footpad (4.5 e/w) in the QMCC and Ryanair both NRNB

4. Race most looking forward to (Not as a betting race):
RSA Chase - not original but this looks a mighty renewal and hopefully can set up some epic clashes over the next few years with whoever wins this year going to take on the Gold Cup winner (Percy!)

5. Who is your BANKER?
Altior. Just has no competition. Apple's Jade probably next best if I wasn't backing the odds on shot.

6. If you had to LAY a fav now:
Envoi Allen in the Champion Bumper cos he ain't gonna run :devilish: (Although I don't lay 1/6 shots)

7. Bet you're happiest with:
Tough one, I suppose on recent events, Angel's Breath at 33/1 2 pts e/w Supreme.

8. Worst bet you've placed (non runners don't count)
Black Op in the JLT at 13/1 - hopefully bounces back tomorrow but price wasn't big enough before debut, so certainly isn't after it.
Click to expand...

I'll answer the ones that don't require maths.

Biggest single -

Taken a flyer on Epatante in the Supreme at 33/1 Eachway Antepost Rules. I just keep hearing this horse is their best novice and now the Tolworth is a looking like it's on the agenda I had to take 33's because if it pisses in and goes 4/1 I would be gutted. Trouble is, last time I took this big a flyer it was on My Tent Or Yours at the same price for the same reasons. It was all going terribly well until Willie decided Champagne Fever was a 2 miler … the day before the Supreme!

Looking Forward to -

RSA. Building up to being a great spectacle but mainly because I like my position in the race. Santini 16/1 Eachway, Next Destination 14/1 Eachway (both placed last March) Delta Work 16/1 Eachway any race.

Banker -

Footpad - Eachway in the Queen Mother. Tall order to win if Altior makes the race fit and well, but I am banking on Footpad to make the three. Have been chipping away at the eachway doubles so that now he is a nice 'winner' for me if he places and thanks to Cuneo (Leopardstown 28th Dec) a retirement plan if he should happen to win.

Lay a fav -

Have laid Kalashnikov (Arkle) because I think it's not fast enough and will lay Apples Jade (Mares) because she was a good loser for me last year and I don't buy into the 'wasn't right last year' stuff. At less than 2/1 I will rely on Willie to find one to beat her.

Happiest with -

Le Richbourg at big prices for any race. Although I initially thought it would go to the JLT, I think that's an Arkle horse. It's last run showed the shorter trip was what was needed. Attacked his fences and jumped low and fast and maintained great speed.

Worst bet placed -

Malone Road 25/1 Bumper
 
1. Your Total 'Points' Staked is?
374 PST

2. How many points are Non-runners already? (not including cashed out):
1 pt (managed to cash 14 points for zero impact)

3. Highest stake on a horse in a single?:
I have max bet on adjali

4. Race most looking forward to (Not as a betting race):
Gold Cup - This year I’m only there on Friday, I am excited to see PP but I am also enjoying the improvement from APB, Kemboy and the returning force of native river. I expect this to be a very close race and another good renewal.

5. Who is your BANKER?
Altior. Just has no competition. Personally I think this is the only possible banker of the festival, amazing horse, best horse by a distance in training in the 2m category

6. If you had to LAY a fav now:
Kalashnikov... After laying him the other day, I believe this horse will continue to get found out in this category, I will continue to add to my position on laying this horse

7. Bet you're happiest with:
If you had asked me last week then I would have had a few but now I would say I have PP in the final leg of a treble at 30/1

8. Worst bet you've placed (non runners don't count)
Annamix in the ballymoore hoping to lay once NRNB kicked in and seeing him rope home on debut, that didn’t happen and cash out is currently in negative returns
 
1. Your Total 'Points' Staked is?
107 points real money; 125 points free bets

2. How many points are Non-runners already? (not including cashed out):
18 points (in reality this is much higher)

3. Highest stake on a horse in a single?:
12 points (inc 9 points of free bets and 2 points any race) Kalashnikov (Arkle)- just wanted him to stay unbeaten until the Festival ... rolls eyes

4. Race most looking forward to (Not as a betting race):
RSA Chase

5. Who is your BANKER?
Altior of course for the Festival, but barely have a penny on him so for me I'm hoping Tiger Roll in the X Country

6. If you had to LAY a fav now:
Although I'm on both at good prices I think Angels Breath and Santini are a fair bit shorter than they should be based on what they have achieved on the track thus far....anyway I digress ...Kalshnikov Arkle :)

7. Bet you're happiest with:
Master Dino 16/1 JLT....jokes....Topofthegame 28/1 RSA

8. Worst bet you've placed (non runners don't count)
Pym and Commander of Fleet both for the Ballymore and Supreme, really think I got a bit sucked in to their colours and their non resemblance to Altior and Samcro
 
180 points

10 points

All trixies looking the life changer

Gold cup

Think Percy is a good thing

Just my opinion but santini think he’s too short and the big field mite unsettle him

£5 Trixie of vindication 33/1 JLT topofthegane 20/1 RSA carefully selected 20/1 AB

Willoughby court Ryanair only one leg out a Trixie tho
 
Happy New Year!
1. 100
2. 0 (sure this will change :highly_amused:)
3. Paisley Park
4. Arkle (hopefully a lovely story with Lalor)
5. Altior
6. Buveur d'air. Will lay Presenting Percy for a place - both of these if its gd-sft or better
7. Paisley Park 33/1 Adjali 25/1 Sharjah 20/1
8. Probably Black Op, jumped the gun with him, but havent given up hope. Thought he ran with a lot of credit yesterday
 
Happy new year everyone! Good to do some analysis, as I had a rotten Christmas which has lessened my confidence in my opinion!

1. 30 (not including free bets)
2. I'd estimate around 5. Got cash out for Envoi Allen, but my unit stake is £5 and I don't think it's worth trading in a 33/1 slip on the off chance Gordon changes his mind in exchange for a score on cash out
3. All pretty flat at the moment. Don't have any horse with more than 2 points on currently
4. Massively subject to change but due to everyone swerving Altior I reckon the Ryanair might be a very high class affair this year
5. Altior - be confused if anyone said anything else. The only danger to him is himself
6. While I think currently he looks the likely winner - Percy has got to be a shout - he's shortened without doing anything. Memories of Apple's Jade loom long again, got to be tempting
7. On recent form, I'm only happy with one bet and that's Delta Work, any race, 22/1
8. Black Op 13/1 for JLT doesn't look great, and also paid my price to see if the COF hype was right (Arnie voice: wrong!) but mostly I open my bet 365 account and see 0.6 point cash out for a 2 point stake on Summerville Boy on the Champion Hurdle and say "oi vey" to myself in a comedic voice
 
Not very good at keeping a record ..
1. Approx 1000 points.
2. Approx 40 points.inc I.D.Thief - r.i.p.
3. Presenting percy 60 points - 30 e/w @6-1.
4. Agree - R.s.a chase.
5. Buveur D'air - got to be , as in a stack of Multi's.
6. Kalashnikov - Although if goes J.L.T ., could be good for me.
7. T.O.T.Game @ 20-1 - 20 points each way.
8. Willoughby court ??.
P.S mine are NOT 5 a point !
 
As ever, I'm left confused by how people use points. I thought your betting bank should be 100% and then your staking points as percentages of that bank. Each to their own I guess
 
Kevloaf said:
Happy New Year all - I thought today would be a good day to ask a few questions :)
(Points refer to your own staking plan, as actual amounts can muddy and affect judgement for the rest of the forum)

... and feel free to ask any other better questions!

1. Your Total 'Points' Staked is?
632.3 pts

2. How many points are Non-runners already? (not including cashed out):
20.4 pts

3. Highest stake on a horse in a single?:
I have 9 points on Footpad (4.5 e/w) in the QMCC and Ryanair both NRNB

4. Race most looking forward to (Not as a betting race):
RSA Chase - not original but this looks a mighty renewal and hopefully can set up some epic clashes over the next few years with whoever wins this year going to take on the Gold Cup winner (Percy!)

5. Who is your BANKER?
Altior. Just has no competition. Apple's Jade probably next best if I wasn't backing the odds on shot.

6. If you had to LAY a fav now:
Envoi Allen in the Champion Bumper cos he ain't gonna run :devilish: (Although I don't lay 1/6 shots)

7. Bet you're happiest with:
Tough one, I suppose on recent events, Angel's Breath at 33/1 2 pts e/w Supreme.

8. Worst bet you've placed (non runners don't count)
Black Op in the JLT at 13/1 - hopefully bounces back tomorrow but price wasn't big enough before debut, so certainly isn't after it.
Click to expand...

130
7
12pts NRNB Percy 9/2
Gold Cup
Champ
Buveur D'air
Laurina 16s and 12s for champion
Kilbricken storm rsa
 
robith said:
As ever, I'm left confused by how people use points. I thought your betting bank should be 100% and then your staking points as percentages of that bank. Each to their own I guess
Click to expand...

I think we use the term 'points' instead of cash sums to try and stop people seeing that someone has put, for arguments sake, £100 on a horse and then thinking they need to up what they have bet.

Personally, pay no attention to what 'points' have been staked by others. As they are only relevant to that individual.
 
robith said:
As ever, I'm left confused by how people use points. I thought your betting bank should be 100% and then your staking points as percentages of that bank. Each to their own I guess
Click to expand...

Points is just a means to calculate, but still enable to keep exact fiscal figures private.

I'm not like Scooby, boopa and the other pro punters. I'm pretty much a mug punter, who just does this for an interest through the year.

I track my bets as I go, but don't have a bankroll, per se.

My betting bank is whatever it is come March, and hopefully I get it all back with some on top.

Slots on the other hand, I track absolutely everything, and have spreadsheets with stat calculators :highly_amused:
 
Innoko said:
I think we use the term 'points' instead of cash sums to try and stop people seeing that someone has put, for arguments sake, £100 on a horse and then thinking they need to up what they have bet.

Personally, pay no attention to what 'points' have been staked by others. As they are only relevant to that individual.
Click to expand...

:encouragement:, Agree with that Innoko , What is a big bet for me , is pocket change for some i'm sure.
 
robith said:
As ever, I'm left confused by how people use points. I thought your betting bank should be 100% and then your staking points as percentages of that bank. Each to their own I guess
Click to expand...

My personal feeling is that the "scale" of points (so mine is 1 to 10) is relative to the 'Betting Bank'.

My actual value of a point doubled this year, however I have just stuck with the same 'points' on here, as it's relative to MY bank.

You will very, very, VERY rarely see me stake over 10 pts on a single horse, and if I did, it'd be undisciplined.

To be fair, it isn't exactly a difficult code to crack and have a solid idea of what what people stake, and I'd happily tell anyone that asks via the private messaging... but it works both ways... if we found out (and sorry to use him again as an example but I'm sure he won't mind), but if scooby only placed £1 per point, would his opinions lose credibility? Should it? If he's banging on about Adjali at 33/1, and he's only got £6 on... would I care? - Easiest to take that out of it and take opinions on face value.

It's not a perfect system, and open to suggestions! :)
 
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