New Years Day and your State of Play - Questions

[Deleted member 4957]

Interesting discussion this.
I assumed when people said they had 'x' points on a horse it was designed to advise of level of confidence which is obviously linked to their bank, otherwise what is the reason for informing the forum what the stake is, be that in pounds or points ?

My own view is that someone's stake is personal to them and is no-one elses business, I enjoy reading everyones views and the constructive arguments put forward for selections but I never consider/calculate what their points/pounds stake is.

For those questioning stakes/points I'd pretty much ignore others strategies...

 

[Hurricane fly]

1. 49 points staked (including free bets)

2. 4U down(All Hollowgraphic) plus 1.5U gone in multi where atleast 1 leg is down already

3. 4U on Penhill and he’s in a couple of multi

4. Probably the RSA looks the most competitive, but I’d love Apples Jade to turn up in the stayers and see if she can run the finish out of Penhill

5. Altior, I think Mullins will actively avoid with his best

6. Eptante and/or Envoi Allen, both 6/1 and I don’t think either turn up in the race let alone win it

7. A £5 treble on Penhill, Buveur D’air and Presenting Percy. First bet I placed after the festival, haven’t even seen two of them but the races are starting to fall by the wayside and open up for all three to win

8.Labaik 1.5U for the champion hurdle. I’ve got a lot of horses in the gold cup at 3 figures who look bad but at minimum stakes so Labaik because I put actual money down

I’ve just been through my full book and decided that nearly my whole book is rubbish - I’ve created a spreadsheet(actually quite proud of it as I’ve got formulas to work out my lucky 15s and yankees) and have been going through what I see the likely scenarios and what I need to get to evens etc.

However I picked up my antepost betting as (alongside some Samcro based winnings) one of the things it stopped me doing last year was betting big on the day as I had small stakes at large odds.
For example last year I had ABP and IO both at 80.0 for the AB and JLT, only £3 and £5 but on the day it stopped me putting 10-20x that amount on them, so it became addition by subtraction.

With the amount of horses I’m still waiting to see I think my antepost may revert back to being a benefit that way as much as it is a benefit to winnings.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

1. Your Total 'Points' Staked is?
128.5 points

2. How many points are Non-runners already? (not including cashed out):
9

7 of which were on Never Adapt

3. Highest stake on a horse in a single?:
8 points on Samcro from after he won for me last year. I chucked some winnings on him Any race. Closely followed by Never Adapt (7) and Delta Work and Monalee (6 each).

I’d not go over 10 antepost as a single until NRNB was in. Nows the time when I’ll start topping up on the smaller bets I fancy with NRNB.

4. Race most looking forward to (Not as a betting race):
Champion Chase - There’s no better sight in racing than seeing Altior fly through the air at Cheltenham.

5. Who is your BANKER?
Altior. I’ve never seen a horse fly up the Cheltenham hill like him. He devours it like it’s not even there.

6. If you had to LAY a fav now:
Apples Jade

For four reasons.
1 - She could get injured or lose form like last year.
2 - Benie Des Dieux is still unexposed and classy. And underappreciated despite beating AJ twice last year (and I put her up on here at 16s too).
3 - I believe Laurina will go here and could be anything
4 - Laying her at 6/4 is short enough where if she does win, it’s only a 4/6 loser and wouldn’t hurt too much. She’s short enough to lay if I was into that.
3 -

7. Bet you're happiest with:
Delta Work each way at 16s for me for any race (6 points).

Although the 33/1 e/w NRNB Fox Norton for the Champion Chase I placed yesterday is a cracker imo. The race will be 6 runners. He’s each way thievery if he runs at 33s. If not, money back so no harm done. A great bet to nothing in my opinion.

8. Worst bet you've placed (non runners don't count)


Samcro 8 points is a bit sour. Can’t believe what’s happened to him.

I threw a point each way on Dinons for any race after he won for Elliott at Cheltenham months ago. That was probably a silly bet after he won a small field race on heavy ground in October. Doubt he’s good enough to even run at the Festival now let alone win a Novice Hurdle.

 

[Leman14]

1. Your Total 'Points' Staked is?
212 points (mostly Free Bets)

2. How many points are Non-runners already? (not including cashed out):
7.5 points in confirmed non-runners at the moment

3. Highest stake on a horse in a single?:
12 points on Buveur D'Air @ 7/2 (threw most of my post-2018 Free Bets his way)

4. Race most looking forward to (Not as a betting race):
RSA - I just think that there is potentially a great deal of strength-in-depth and should be a cracker!

5. Who is your BANKER?
Altior - nuff said

6. If you had to LAY a fav now:
Apples Jade.
She has been VERY impressive so far, but is by no means a certainty if Laurina and/or BDD turn up

7. Bet you're happiest with:
Vinndication @ 25/1 and Lalor @ 33/1
(Quite a few "Any Race" that I am happy with as well, but prices are shorter due to the concession)

8. Worst bet you've placed (non runners don't count)
Soooo many! But probably Samcro - Any Race!
Piled into him with Free Bets early season at a short "Any Race" price - thinking that he would win whatever her turns up in.... how wrong I was!

 

[mayo]

1. Your Total 'Points' Staked is?
c 120 pts - about 80 bets mainly life changers

2. How many points are Non-runners already? (not including cashed out):
c 15 pts but hard to call.

3. Highest stake on a horse in a single?:
Le Richebourg ew any race

4. Race most looking forward to (Not as a betting race):
Supreme because that starts it all.

5. Who is your BANKER?

Altior but not as a bet.

6. If you had to LAY a fav now:

Dont lay.

7. Bet you're happiest with:

none of them for fear of poxing them.


8. Worst bet you've placed (non runners don't count)

Le Richebourg JLT I think

 

[Native River]

1. Your Total 'Points' Staked is?*
61.5pts

2. How many points are Non-runners already? (not including cashed out):*
7pts

3. Highest stake on a horse in a single?:
2 e/w on Mengli from May At 25s

4. Race most looking forward to (Not as a betting race):
For me it's the RSA and it has been that way since last March, just looks absolute quality throughout the field

5. Who is your BANKER?
Altior of course

6. If you had to LAY a fav now:
Kalashnikov, never been taken with this horse personally and would be happy to take him on

7. Bet you're happiest with:
2 pts on Delta Work any race at 22/1, massive fan of this horse from last year and he's just continuing to come on over fences

8. Worst bet you've placed (non runners don't count)
Black Op 13/1, was quite happy ignoring him and confident George's horses often struggle novice chasing, and then panicked at the lack of perceived quality in the JLT and jumped on just in case

 

[robith]

Thanks everyone for sharing your thoughts on points, and total get they can also be used to show scale whilst keeping sums private as I can appreciate the effect that could have. As ever I'm a fiver a point man because I'm not a poor man, but I couldn't live with big sums if I lost. The biggest bet I ever placed was £50 on Faugheen the year he won the Champion Hurdle, and I remember feeling sick as they went to the off!

Often confuse the racing crew at work, after watching a race and having a 7/1 winner, being told to get the round in, and then confusing them when I told them the winners wouldn't cover it!

I'm also being overly cautious. The form this season seems very variable, and I'm wary after 2 years ago when I made my first ever festival loss that this year is going to be a tough one to hustle cash from

 

[BigChaang]

My Non runners amount just increased slightly with Next Destination ruled out.
And Black op not going chasing now !.