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Neptune Novices Hurdle 2017

Can't Catch Me said:
Afternoon Kev. Yes when I said only have Bacardys for the race, I meant only chance really.

Invitation Only was my first major AP play, but everything suggests he wont be winning, and Ive already written him off. Couldn't really have Kemboy or Montalbano on my mind for this. Suppose Saturnas will be a live threat if back to his best, as he must be very highly rated to be their short priced fav for the Deloitte. Typically I backed him at 38 and 36 for the Supreme :grumpy:
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:encouragement: I agree with that.

I would definitely expect Ruby to pick Let's Dance if she turned up and that makes so much sense to me. I hope that is the 'controversial switch' this season :highly_amused:
 
Is the support for Neon Wolf due to Fry giving him the green light? I think some people have been keen to knock Finian's Oscar, perhaps with some justification, but is Neon Wolf's form that much better? His point form is pretty ordinary and his first two wins don't add up to much so it appears to boil down to visual impression and what you think of Elgin. Is he really that good and was he as good at Haydock as at Kempton? Add in whether winning a weak point is enough to suggest Neon Wolf wants 2m5f and 5/2 looks a very short price.
 
kinloch brae said:
Is the support for Neon Wolf due to Fry giving him the green light? I think some people have been keen to knock Finian's Oscar, perhaps with some justification, but is Neon Wolf's form that much better? His point form is pretty ordinary and his first two wins don't add up to much so it appears to boil down to visual impression and what you think of Elgin. Is he really that good and was he as good at Haydock as at Kempton? Add in whether winning a weak point is enough to suggest Neon Wolf wants 2m5f and 5/2 looks a very short price.
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I agree, something I was looking at earlier today without commenting on, I'd certainly be a layer rather than a backer at this current moment, I think he will be bigger on the day, because I think horses like Ballyandy and Let's Dance both turn up here for starters, without taking into account the form of Bacardys who is double the price, it all seems a little bit short for me.

Interestingly Finian's Oscar has gone the other way and drifted, so hope nothing is wrong with him.
 
kinloch brae said:
Is the support for Neon Wolf due to Fry giving him the green light? I think some people have been keen to knock Finian's Oscar, perhaps with some justification, but is Neon Wolf's form that much better? His point form is pretty ordinary and his first two wins don't add up to much so it appears to boil down to visual impression and what you think of Elgin. Is he really that good and was he as good at Haydock as at Kempton? Add in whether winning a weak point is enough to suggest Neon Wolf wants 2m5f and 5/2 looks a very short price.
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Would like you to be right re Lets Dance for the Neptune, but the vibes do seem quite pointed in one direction and that's Mares Novice. Think the step up in trip has helped her this season so find it a tad strange but sure!
 
loveracing said:
FYI DW - I've backed all Wicklow Bloodstock horses blind when entered in the last 3 seasons and can't complain about the results...

Arctic Fire 14/1 - 2nd in County Hurdle 2014
Arctic Fire 33/1 - 2nd in CH 2015
Wicklow Brave 33/1 - 1st in County 2015
No runners in 2016
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Will you be doing so this year?
They have Saturnas (x3 Novice Hurdles) and Aussie Reigns (AB) entered at themoment
 
Leman14 said:
Will you be doing so this year?
They have Saturnas (x3 Novice Hurdles) and Aussie Reigns (AB) entered at themoment
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Most likely will on the day with those prices.

Thanks for the heads up on AR Leman. I never even knew this horse existed lol.
 
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Deloitte winner hasn't doubled up since Istabraq in 1997 - negative for Bacardys? He isn't Istabraq either :highly_amused:
 
My shortlist for this is Neon Wolf, Monalee and either Saturnas/Invitation Only if either go for it!

I have backed a few others too, but for me, the winner is one of those....
 
Still think Invitation Only has a chance then Kev if turning up for this?

I had written him off and won't be backing in the race on the day if he did line up. The glimmer of hope though is that he wasn't quite right last time out and coupled with ground far from ideal being beaten 5 and bit lengths by Death Duty isn't too bad and more importantly being just 1.5 lengths back from Monalee isn't either if he's considered a strong contender. Lot of talk on Monalee in the preview circuit this year too.
 
They said he is 50/50 ... and if Ruby picked him (unlikely?) I'd want him onside (unfortunately, he already is 'on-side' so I won't back him again) but Mullins' record in the race is really good and they fancied him to beat Death Duty that day...he must have some ability somewhere! It is also because I like DD/Monalee so I can't like two from the same race without wanting to have the other, as you said, 1.5l isn't too far, especially if the ground brings about improvement and Monalee might be better over further?

I'm just trying to see what I need to do to adjust my ante-post positions (if at all) if I have a strong view on the race. I can't see any way back from the hype around Neon Wolf.... I am sure I have posted in here when he was a bigger price than FO that I thought it was wrong and the market has flip-flopped which is great. I really, really, really like him. The form isn't brilliant but he is absolutely brutal and just looks absolute class to my (untrained) eyes!

I don't like MDO, although wouldn't be able to rule it out of the places, solid enough form beating Ballyandy for example, but nothing glashy at all. A double MDO and Wholestone would tempt me... both to place. :encouragement: but happy enough to overlook.

I don't like Bacardys, I haven't got any decent reasons not to, and CCM made some good points, and I have backed at 9/1 - I just have doubts about the Deloitte form on the whole and nothing more than gut feeling than if Mullins is winning races with Bacardys he'd end up having a magnificent Cheltenham, and that doesn't seem particularly likely.... A bit contradictory though from what I've said earlier. I haven't got any decent reasons not to :D

Finian's Oscar is at a price now that is pretty fair. At 5/1 if he hacked up, I wouldn't begrudge anyone that had fancied him.I wouldn't rule him out of the 3, despite not looking impressive to my eyes or having any decent formlines, but he can only beat what is in front of him.
 
I have been looking at this race for a while now, my initial thoughts was Bacardys with Mullins record in the race plus more but horses with flat backgrounds are a no no apparently!

Neon Wolf and Finian's I just cannot get into for some reason - the former is being backed in considerably though!

MDO cannot win because he won the Challow but will probably place.

Atm I keep looking at Monalee and Willoughby Court ha!

I am right in thinking that something has to win this race doesn't it? :highly_amused:
 
Actually, did Bacardys start his career on the flat? :confused:

Maybe it was the Deloitte win that put me off...
 
I definitely have my reservations about Bacardys , but , I think you'd be a brave man not to have him in one of your L.15/yankee's.,. . Like a fair few of my A/P bets , got Monalee - but in the alb, so I have done another one now with m/lee in nept,. F. oscar to win though for me.
 
I'm surprised Beyond Conceit hasn't been mentioned more, won well last time out despite being very free. Similar profile to Bunk off Early being flat bred but I'm fairly sure Henderson will send him to the Neptune
 
I cant have Bacardys at all. If NW switched could DD come here ? Monalee going to AB according to Henry.
 
mayo said:
I cant have Bacardys at all. If NW switched could DD come here ? Monalee going to AB according to Henry.
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Where is that latest quote from?

Monalee will avoid DD is the last thing I've heard HdB say?

Personally don't think Elliott would change target based on Neon Wolf... and he has said 100% AB too?
 
Unexposed said:
I'm surprised Beyond Conceit hasn't been mentioned more, won well last time out despite being very free. Similar profile to Bunk off Early being flat bred but I'm fairly sure Henderson will send him to the Neptune
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If you believe what he says Henderson prefers the Supreme. I would agree as he isn't slow and the faster pace should help him settle. Good to soft would be ideal.
 
2017 Neptune Novices Hurdle

2017 Neptune Novices Hurdle

 
Plenty of blue on oddschecker for Let's Dance now...
 
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