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Supreme Novices 2017

Kevloaf said:
Henderson mocking my ante post bet on Lough Derg Spirit :triumphant:

My two pence on Jenkins today - Very pleased.

You can teach and train a horse to jump quicker,slicker,safer (whatever you want) but you can't teach natural ability. Jockey was off the bridle before a few others but he has absolutely powered away.... he could have jumped the last in about 5th and still won. Very pleased to already be on and even without rose tinted glasses, I'd expect the 2nd and 3rd to win races in the future.
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Have to echo that Kev, didn't travel as smoothly as expected and did a lot wrong in the jumping department but still managed to pull clear. Good novice that will have learnt plenty.
 
Still happy with where I stand with my Moon Racer bet :encouragement: hopefully get there in one piece
 
paz247 said:
Still happy with where I stand with my Moon Racer bet :encouragement: hopefully get there in one piece
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You haven't said what you we're on at, but (having gone back page by page) realised it was the OP (haha :very_drunk:) ... must be 20s at least you got?

Definitely looking good now for you? I did take the 12s on Moon Racer and had the double with Ballyandy for the Neptune after that Perth run, 'just in case' ... the rematch didn't do anything to dampen my spirits either, which isn't bad after two runs...

Looking at the market now, if the race was tomorrow, I'd be all over Moon Racer... I think Peace News (nice as he is) isn't the right 2nd fav, then Jenkins and LDS (been cut despite comments) and Melon... Melon yet to run, so could be the next Mullins bubble burst for this as there will be plenty to swoop in afterwards... Having said that, Melon is the one I heard a rumour that Ricci wanted to buy, so I think it is going to be ahead of Senewalk in the pecking order... which is obviously easy to say now :)
 
billymag said:
On the back of that run I think that its more likely Lough Derg Spirit will be a Neptune horse and ive taken 25/1 on him, I agree with all the points above. Hopefully Jenkins will stay fit coz he would be my biggest winner
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The other thing to consider with Lough Derg Spirit is that the owners also have Claimantakinforgan as well. Claimantakinforgan actually beat LDS in a PTP and recently won a bumper for Henderson. It seems from the comments that he will go hurdling now rather than stay down the bumper route. The owners are fairly new to me so I'm not sure if they'd want to split horses or not. They have been active though and splashing the cash.
 
I'm pretty sure we'll come to look back on that maiden hurdle as a very good race. Both Bags Groove and Captain Forez (can't wait for him over fences next year) will win their fair share of races and the three finished as their odds suggested so you'd assume they all ran to their expected form.

Before last year Henderson had struggled to win the Supreme but came very close with an outstanding place record in the race. In the last 6 years of the race his runners have finished:

2016 - Altior 1st, Buveur D'Air 3rd
2015 - L'ami Serge 4th
2014 - Josses Hill 2nd, Vaniteux 3rd
2013 - My Tent or Yours 2nd, River Maigue 8th
2012 - Darlan 2nd
2011 - Spirit Son 2nd, Sprinter Sacre 3rd

Giving him a form line in the race of:

1342328223

L'ami Serge arguably did well to finish 4th having been hampered twice in running and without (imo) would have got third at least (no chance on winner mind) Take out that run and RM's 8th place finish (who was clearly second string behind MTOY's) and it gives you:

13232223

So when Henderson targets a horse at the race, you know it's going to be right up there at the finish. I have huge faith in Nicky ironing out his (Jenkins) jumping and being a big challenger to Moon Racer and co.
 
Those stats are impressive enough without manipulating the RM or L'ami runs I'd say. Any idea about next race targets?
 
Nothing i've heard but i'd say Kempton on boxing day (Altior won the same race last year) could be on the agenda
 
Also on the LDS quotes - i'd be amazed if he wasn't taking in a festival race come March, whether that be the Supreme or Neptune. I was really taken by this horse and will be very surprised if he's not one of the leading novice hopes at the festival. Just haven't seen a horse jump that slick on their hurdle debut for a long time.

I didn't realise at the time but the horse was mentioned in a couple of preview books (Paul Ferguson's and The Final Flight) and they both mentioned him being a horse tackling 2m4 - "he's definitely got the pace for that sort of trip and has a really good cruising speed"
So there's certainly a case for a possible Neptune target and that cruising speed was evident on his debut.

In my opinion Henderson sends all his best horses to the Supreme regardless of having multiple in the race, bar Simonsig in 2012 but the likes of Paul Ferhuson would be a far better judge than myself and like JackieMoon says the owners do have another well thought of novice hurdler and you would think they'd try and split them up if they both are up to that level.

Sadly he's only 10's any race which is quite short, especially considering the 25's on offer for the Neptune still so i'm happy to take the 25's and know i've got him covered in both races :encouragement:
 
Looks like we might see Riven Light at Thurles tomorrow and Crack Mome over the weekend
 
Crack Mome has been well backed in the last couple of weeks, top price 25 from 50.
 
KSS have you heard that Crack Mome is running this weekend cant see any entries, no racing in Ireland start of the week so wonder if it will be the following week
 
I expect Riven Light to win tomorrow and become the new Ricci Supreme "hype horse" after Senewalk disappointed.

Here was his last win in France for anyone interested:

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/r_Rr7ID8E84" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
Im really looking forward to seeing Crack Mome, its about time Wylie had a top horse to go to war with in the Supreme, he must be one of the most humble honest owners in the game, a trainers dream, what a class act.
 
Wylie definitely comes across as a great guy. Really enjoyed listening to him last season on the Final Furlong podcast and looking forward to him being on in 2 weeks time. Hopefully he'll have some good words to say about Crack Mome
 
Riven Light got hammered in the betting and it seems to have had no effect on the ante-post markets? Friend of mine suggested Neptune and PP have gone 20s for that.... ?
 
Think willie is starting to hit top gear now, crack mome one to look forward to but if peace news wins well tomorrow I have a funny feeling we will have a new supreme favourite
 
Agree cwright, its a quick enough turn around for him, it didnt look a soft maiden he won and to go into a grade 1 after only 2 weeks off wont be easy, but if he wins will be pushing fav. Ive a feeling Crack Mome might be Willies number this year but no money for him so maybe not, but hopefully we will get to see what hes made of on Thursday.
 
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