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National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2019

Kevloaf said:
I know jono has Debece on his radar... I thought he'd show better than he did at Aintree so I've gone a little lukewarm myself.
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He was carrying a good weight at Aintree for a horse that hadn't seen a racecourse for 12months. Given his build i'd imagine he would take plenty of work/racing to strip 100% fit, the Aintree run can be overlooked for those reasons imo, his previous Aintree run in finishing 3rd is very solid with Keeper Hill & Elegant Escape well beaten.
 
Have added Ballyward (33/1) to go with Kilbricken Storm in this race for me.

It's not a race I put large stakes on but I like to go 3 or 4 handed into, will wait now until a clearer picture is up with the Gigginstown & JP runners too.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Have added Ballyward (33/1) to go with Kilbricken Storm in this race for me.

It's not a race I put large stakes on but I like to go 3 or 4 handed into, will wait now until a clearer picture is up with the Gigginstown & JP runners too.
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I'm interested in Ballyward for this also, 33-1 very fair with 365..

On KS, do you think there is any danger that the RSA would be the more preferred target with what happened to Elegant Escape last year?
 
Innoko said:
I'm interested in Ballyward for this also, 33-1 very fair with 365..

On KS, do you think there is any danger that the RSA would be the more preferred target with what happened to Elegant Escape last year?
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Yeah, I think Kev brought it up about KS going for the RSA, but then again the same yard also put Native River in the 4 miler, so it will depend on who they book to ride IMO.

I also don't think Elegant Escape's run in the RSA will have any bearing on where KS goes though.

Tizzard has a lot of exciting, young chasers this coming season too, including Pingshou, who I completely forgot about, all of whom will be better for fences as opposed to what they did over hurdles, so if he finds one for the RSA plus he can have one in the 4 miler too then I'm sure he will be splitting them up. But it is very early to call either way, and possibly I was a bit hasty adding him to this race, time will tell now.
 
Not sure what is happening to Fabulous Saga but I had him for a jackpot last season (potato) and was given a very enterprising ride and still wasn’t a million miles away.
This race could be ideal for him...
 
Don't mean to burst your bubble lads regarding Ballyward & Fabulous Saga but going back the last 6 years all Mullins runners in this have been at least 8 years of age, think he has had 8 runners in that time. Of Patricks rides, who have finished 13P341, their ages were 10 8 8 10 8 8. The one I fancy for this of the Mullins runners is Bacardys, serious worries about his jumping though, the slower pace should help you'd imagine. The other one I have an eye is Robin Des Foret but I would want to see him campaigned over the winter before having a punt on him. He is being campaigned very similarly to Rathvinden thus far, he has some nice form over hurdles, does anyone know if he was injured at Cork last year or just put away. Both are 33s at the moment.
 
Folski said:
Don't mean to burst your bubble lads regarding Ballyward & Fabulous Saga but going back the last 6 years all Mullins runners in this have been at least 8 years of age, think he has had 8 runners in that time. Of Patricks rides, who have finished 13P341, their ages were 10 8 8 10 8 8. The one I fancy for this of the Mullins runners is Bacardys, serious worries about his jumping though, the slower pace should help you'd imagine. The other one I have an eye is Robin Des Foret but I would want to see him campaigned over the winter before having a punt on him. He is being campaigned very similarly to Rathvinden thus far, he has some nice form over hurdles, does anyone know if he was injured at Cork last year or just put away. Both are 33s at the moment.
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Hadn't considered the age of Mullins runners tbh, but had looked at the ages of recent winners, and 13 of which had been aged 7 or 8 in the past 18 runnings which was also good enough for me to go in on both of my current bets for the race.

I guess it depends which stats/trends you follow, as Rathvinden, being a 10 year old would have had me not backing him (1 winner aged 10 or more in last 18 runnings), the fact someone put him up quite early on here meant I had already backed him, at very small stakes, but enough to cover my bet on the race, at a fair price, which otherwise I would not have done.
 
Thanks Folski, interesting stat that and probably suggests Fabulous Saga will be aimed elsewhere.
The race is generally dominated by 7/8yo, 7yo have won 7 of last 14 renewals but the Mullins age stat is crucial...
 
Don't know if anyone else noticed but Dortmund Park is entered in a 2m6f beginners chase at Limerick on Sunday. This happens to be the same race Jury Duty (went off 4/1f for this) started in and won last season. Even more interesting is the fact that Tiger Roll ran on the same card the year before, when winning the Munster National, he was a 2nd season novice and went on to win this race later that season.

As DP is only a 5 year old I thought it might be a bit much for Elliott to run a 6 year old in this but he did it last year with Mossback (RIP), not that it turned out well. This guy won a G1 hurdle by 10L last year. I think he is a serious prospect this year, was a huge fan last year, I requested odds from 365 earlier hoping they might give me 50s but best they would do was 33s. Tough to say what Gigginstown or Elliott will run in this as they have an abundance of staying chasers, as we well know. Happy to take a chance at this price.

I had him down as a potential for JLT but 2m6f seems to suggest he'll be going over further.
 
Folski said:
Don't know if anyone else noticed but Dortmund Park is entered in a 2m6f beginners chase at Limerick on Sunday. This happens to be the same race Jury Duty (went off 4/1f for this) started in and won last season. Even more interesting is the fact that Tiger Roll ran on the same card the year before, when winning the Munster National, he was a 2nd season novice and went on to win this race later that season.

As DP is only a 5 year old I thought it might be a bit much for Elliott to run a 6 year old in this but he did it last year with Mossback (RIP), not that it turned out well. This guy won a G1 hurdle by 10L last year. I think he is a serious prospect this year, was a huge fan last year, I requested odds from 365 earlier hoping they might give me 50s but best they would do was 33s. Tough to say what Gigginstown or Elliott will run in this as they have an abundance of staying chasers, as we well know. Happy to take a chance at this price.

I had him down as a potential for JLT but 2m6f seems to suggest he'll be going over further.
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Not declared, I assume because of the ground. Still happy enough to roll the dice at that price.
 
Folski said:
Not declared, I assume because of the ground. Still happy enough to roll the dice at that price.
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I know you noted his age earlier in the thread and I think that is good enough reason to not back him tbh. I had already backed Ballyward before looking at the age side of it just because he struck me as needing this sort of race, however I am regretting this now, he will be 7 but not the usual Mullins age of runner for a race like this.

Think I'll stick to the ages of 7 and up for this one.

Early thoughts from myself:

Kilbricken Storm, though as has been pointed out by a few could well go RSA route, Tizzard has a lot of novice chasers this season though so still hopeful of him having a crack at this. Trip shouldn't cause issues being by Oscar and damsire being Supreme Leader.

Cracking Smart, would have preferred a more solid profile for this one for a race of this nature, but not out of it. Breeding would suggest trip could be a stretch.

Blow By Blow, will he get 4 miles? Not convinced on what we've seen so far, however breeding on dams side would suggest so. Course form a positive too.

Bacardys, again, unconvinced he'll get home over 4 miles on what we have seen, though looks like his jumping needs 4 miles to get it right. Struggle to be positive about this one at the moment.

OK Corral, this one I really like. Age, Breeding, races to date, owner/trainer, not many negatives on this one for me, 33/1 seems a steal right now. Be surprised if they go RSA, given trainers already high profile potential challengers, Santini, On The Blind Side (though shouldn't be a 3 mile horse IMO), despite being by differing owners. Jockey booking will also likely be strong, given connections.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I know you noted his age earlier in the thread and I think that is good enough reason to not back him tbh. I had already backed Ballyward before looking at the age side of it just because he struck me as needing this sort of race, however I am regretting this now, he will be 7 but not the usual Mullins age of runner for a race like this.

Think I'll stick to the ages of 7 and up for this one.

Early thoughts from myself:

Kilbricken Storm, though as has been pointed out by a few could well go RSA route, Tizzard has a lot of novice chasers this season though so still hopeful of him having a crack at this. Trip shouldn't cause issues being by Oscar and damsire being Supreme Leader.

Cracking Smart, would have preferred a more solid profile for this one for a race of this nature, but not out of it. Breeding would suggest trip could be a stretch.

Blow By Blow, will he get 4 miles? Not convinced on what we've seen so far, however breeding on dams side would suggest so. Course form a positive too.

Bacardys, again, unconvinced he'll get home over 4 miles on what we have seen, though looks like his jumping needs 4 miles to get it right. Struggle to be positive about this one at the moment.

OK Corral, this one I really like. Age, Breeding, races to date, owner/trainer, not many negatives on this one for me, 33/1 seems a steal right now. Be surprised if they go RSA, given trainers already high profile potential challengers, Santini, On The Blind Side (though shouldn't be a 3 mile horse IMO), despite being by differing owners. Jockey booking will also likely be strong, given connections.
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That is very fair but it's just at the price I think it's worth a go if he turns up he's a single figure price with a good jockey guaranteed. Plus Native River & Minella Rocco didn't do too bad in this as 6 year olds. I also think having a bit of class and speed doesn't hurt at all in this race. Cause of Causes won a Ladbroke and Rathvinden was 2nd to Faugheen in a Neptune. When you can travel in this race it makes it a lot easier.

With Kilbricken Storm the issue is as you said the RSA as Tizzard is possibly still scared from losing Derek O'Connor a few years back on Native River.

Agree with everything you've said on the others.
 
Folski said:
That is very fair but it's just at the price I think it's worth a go if he turns up he's a single figure price with a good jockey guaranteed. Plus Native River & Minella Rocco didn't do too bad in this as 6 year olds. I also think having a bit of class and speed doesn't hurt at all in this race. Cause of Causes won a Ladbroke and Rathvinden was 2nd to Faugheen in a Neptune. When you can travel in this race it makes it a lot easier.

With Kilbricken Storm the issue is as you said the RSA as Tizzard is possibly still scared from losing Derek O'Connor a few years back on Native River.

Agree with everything you've said on the others.
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Yeah, that year was exceptional for 6 year olds, think 4 ran, 3 in the top 4 finish and the other one fell.

Unsure on the complete stats for 6 year olds but just a quick glance I think the 1 as you mentioned this year fell, previous year 3 ran aged 6 and under and 3 unplaced, then we had the Minella Rocco/Native River race and before that (2015) 3 ran and 3 unplaced again.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Yeah, I think Kev brought it up about KS going for the RSA, but then again the same yard also put Native River in the 4 miler, so it will depend on who they book to ride IMO.

I also don't think Elegant Escape's run in the RSA will have any bearing on where KS goes though.
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I can't find any posts from me in here so I assume it's in the RSA thread but...

A huge factor in why I think Kilbricken Storm won't run in the 4 miler is BECAUSE of them running Native River. Colin Tizzard was clearly still annoyed about what happened with Native River as in the build up to Cheltenham this year he said words to the effect of 'there is no point running in the race without a top amatuer' and 'unless one [a top amatuer] approaches us then Elegant Escape will run in the RSA'.

There are other examples too, first one that springs to mind - Finian's being aimed at Arkle, then RSA, then Stayers before JLT despite that looking the most obvious race for him from the very start.

I don't want you to think I am knocking your bet (if you've had one) - it's just with these connections I think you HAVE to consider what they've done previously and therefore Elegant Escape's run in the RSA must have some bearing? As a casing point, Kilbricken Storm is a better hurdler than Elegant Escape, and is a 3m Cheltenham Festival winner at that. If he does take to chasing then can you honestly see them going for the weaker race? I fully expect him to go for the RSA, and (although this might be a little bold) I think if his chasing bubble is burst on route to the RSA they'd go for the Stayers Hurdle before the 4 miler
 
Kevloaf said:
I can't find any posts from me in here so I assume it's in the RSA thread but...

A huge factor in why I think Kilbricken Storm won't run in the 4 miler is BECAUSE of them running Native River. Colin Tizzard was clearly still annoyed about what happened with Native River as in the build up to Cheltenham this year he said words to the effect of 'there is no point running in the race without a top amatuer' and 'unless one [a top amatuer] approaches us then Elegant Escape will run in the RSA'.

There are other examples too, first one that springs to mind - Finian's being aimed at Arkle, then RSA, then Stayers before JLT despite that looking the most obvious race for him from the very start.

I don't want you to think I am knocking your bet (if you've had one) - it's just with these connections I think you HAVE to consider what they've done previously and therefore Elegant Escape's run in the RSA must have some bearing? As a casing point, Kilbricken Storm is a better hurdler than Elegant Escape, and is a 3m Cheltenham Festival winner at that. If he does take to chasing then can you honestly see them going for the weaker race? I fully expect him to go for the RSA, and (although this might be a little bold) I think if his chasing bubble is burst on route to the RSA they'd go for the Stayers Hurdle before the 4 miler
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Agree with your thoughts on Kilbricken storm here Kevloaf . , I think it's R.S.A or stayers hdle , but Joe tizzard
was gushing about K.s's chasing talent in the racing post
last week. so at the moment , probably the R.S.A.
 
The could be an interesting contender running today at Limerick in the Munster National. It's All Guesswork is being thrown in the deep end against some experienced rivals on only his 5th chase start. He's been busy over the summer so it's unlikely he'll be one of the top rank Elliott Novice chasers but he must be deemed a strong stayer to go for such a race. Given the depth Elliott has for 3 mile Novice chases and the fact that division looks incredibly strong this season, the four miler could be a reasonable target.
 
got a feeling i saw It's all guesswork at Cheltenham , last october or the one before ??
 
BigChaang said:
got a feeling i saw It's all guesswork at Cheltenham , last october or the one before ??
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He came over last year and got beaten in a Novice Hurdle. I actually posted at the time that it might have been a slighter for a return to the Pertemps later in the season but he never ran again.
 
Kevloaf said:
I can't find any posts from me in here so I assume it's in the RSA thread but...

A huge factor in why I think Kilbricken Storm won't run in the 4 miler is BECAUSE of them running Native River. Colin Tizzard was clearly still annoyed about what happened with Native River as in the build up to Cheltenham this year he said words to the effect of 'there is no point running in the race without a top amatuer' and 'unless one [a top amatuer] approaches us then Elegant Escape will run in the RSA'.

There are other examples too, first one that springs to mind - Finian's being aimed at Arkle, then RSA, then Stayers before JLT despite that looking the most obvious race for him from the very start.

I don't want you to think I am knocking your bet (if you've had one) - it's just with these connections I think you HAVE to consider what they've done previously and therefore Elegant Escape's run in the RSA must have some bearing? As a casing point, Kilbricken Storm is a better hurdler than Elegant Escape, and is a 3m Cheltenham Festival winner at that. If he does take to chasing then can you honestly see them going for the weaker race? I fully expect him to go for the RSA, and (although this might be a little bold) I think if his chasing bubble is burst on route to the RSA they'd go for the Stayers Hurdle before the 4 miler
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Apologies Kev, I'm pretty sure it was you that advised me previously about the RSA risk of backing KS for this, that's all.

I do appreciate your other points regarding the RSA too, I just feel personally that finishing a remote 3rd in a RSA (would have been 4th had Al Boum Photo not fallen), is no better than finishing an unlucky 2nd in the NH Chase because of a jockey issue. Obviously money might be the factor, but it's £15k less (to the winner) to go for the easier option, can't imagine the place money varies as much as the winners money either.
 
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