charlie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
I've gone to win any race with the lot of them. Decent prices still available on Hills although I think DW was cut after chase debut
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National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2019
- Thread starter jono
- Start date
I've gone to win any race with the lot of them. Decent prices still available on Hills although I think DW was cut after chase debut
Hurricane fly
Fat Jockey Patreon Est. March 2022
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Blow by Blow left in the Drinmore, must be trying to get him a nice for this constantly running him in the medium trip
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Or could be one for the JLT. He's running in almost identical fashion to Shattered Love last season. Obviously he can't undertake the Mares' races she did so he has to go elsewhere. Both ran and finished 2nd in the Florida Pearl though.
He could literally go anywhere. There's no certaintys with a giggingstown chaser. Gordon will have a plan. But Michael and Eddie will have the final call.
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Agree. Backed most of them 'any race' myself, and wouldn't be too hung up on him coming here that's all.
Exactly, any race The only way to go. This might well be his best chance but if Michael dosent agree ie dounikos. It's a no go.
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
One currently not priced up but I have had it now requested with 365 that I can see as a potential winner in this race and then also the Cross Country in future seasons is 'For Good Measure'.
His seasonal debut was full of promise at Cheltenham, he jumped pretty well in the main and was never put in contention, ridden with care IMHO. His second start came way too soon for me, just 20 days after that debut, and I think connections will have known that too, he was also put way out back again, and did not jump with the same fluency as on debut, suggesting he hadn't got over that initial outing. But it did give Derek O'Connor the chance to get on his back too, and as with the JP horses you know you will likely end up with a top amateur on board should he make it to the race.
He had 2 chase starts last season, with, IMO, no intention of winning, starting out over 2m (way too short) and then 2m 4f (again, too short).
His Cheltenham Form over 3m, without winning, is not horrific, finishing 2nd twice over hurdles and 9th in the Pertemps that Presenting Percy won, when not getting the best of runs due to his hold up style and making mistakes over the smaller obstacles. I don't think the course is of any cause for concern.
Hobbs came out and said the following regarding the horse from his stable tour in October: "He ran well in two chases last year and is a horse who should progress and should need three miles. We have preserved his novice status for this season and he is a full brother to Balthazar King so one day we would hope to see him competing in Cross Country Chases."
If they think he will be a potential for the Cross Country then he will be staying the 4m. He isn't good enough to compete in the RSA, so this is the logical step, especially given how Cause Of Causes & Tiger Roll have done, coming out of the 4 miler and then on to the X-C. My only worry is that he could end up in a handicap somewhere.
Edit: Bet365 have him at 25/1 for the NH Chase, William Hill go 20/1 any race.
His seasonal debut was full of promise at Cheltenham, he jumped pretty well in the main and was never put in contention, ridden with care IMHO. His second start came way too soon for me, just 20 days after that debut, and I think connections will have known that too, he was also put way out back again, and did not jump with the same fluency as on debut, suggesting he hadn't got over that initial outing. But it did give Derek O'Connor the chance to get on his back too, and as with the JP horses you know you will likely end up with a top amateur on board should he make it to the race.
He had 2 chase starts last season, with, IMO, no intention of winning, starting out over 2m (way too short) and then 2m 4f (again, too short).
His Cheltenham Form over 3m, without winning, is not horrific, finishing 2nd twice over hurdles and 9th in the Pertemps that Presenting Percy won, when not getting the best of runs due to his hold up style and making mistakes over the smaller obstacles. I don't think the course is of any cause for concern.
Hobbs came out and said the following regarding the horse from his stable tour in October: "He ran well in two chases last year and is a horse who should progress and should need three miles. We have preserved his novice status for this season and he is a full brother to Balthazar King so one day we would hope to see him competing in Cross Country Chases."
If they think he will be a potential for the Cross Country then he will be staying the 4m. He isn't good enough to compete in the RSA, so this is the logical step, especially given how Cause Of Causes & Tiger Roll have done, coming out of the 4 miler and then on to the X-C. My only worry is that he could end up in a handicap somewhere.
Edit: Bet365 have him at 25/1 for the NH Chase, William Hill go 20/1 any race.
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Nice win for Jerrysback today. And a lovely run with this race in mind for me. Think he'll relish the further he races.
Now 33/1 for the race from 50's. The road to this race and single figures begins
:highly_amused:
How he went off 50/1 today though from an opening 10/1. A crazy drift and I feel sick for not chancing him today
Now 33/1 for the race from 50's. The road to this race and single figures begins
:highly_amused:How he went off 50/1 today though from an opening 10/1. A crazy drift and I feel sick for not chancing him today
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Nice win for Jerrysback today. And a lovely run with this race in mind for me. Think he'll relish the further he races.
Now 33/1 for the race from 50's. The road to this race and single figures begins
How he went off 50/1 today though from an opening 10/1. A crazy drift and I feel sick for not chancing him today
Jesus, the green & gold have had some day!!!!!
Nice win for Jerrysback today. And a lovely run with this race in mind for me. Think he'll relish the further he races.
Now 33/1 for the race from 50's. The road to this race and single figures begins
How he went off 50/1 today though from an opening 10/1. A crazy drift and I feel sick for not chancing him today
You should feel sick. Do you want to tell everybody why?
You should feel sick. Do you want to tell everybody why?
Apparently I talked you out a bet on him today. Surprised you could be so easily swayed. No backbone if you ask me...
Apparently I talked you out a bet on him today. Surprised you could be so easily swayed. No backbone if you ask me...
:highly_amused: A fair comment
I've added Jerrysback with 365 - 33/1 - Derek on board?
Of the horses that have had a run this season.... if you HAVE TO PICK a shortlist of 3....
Blow By Blow - Probably be everybodies, outpaced today over 2m4f (shock) The Martin Pipe winners roll of honour is stackked with future stayers, and this horse is the template in that mould. I have no doubt he'll run here.
Bacardys - jumped OKAY on debut, finished the race, I think Patrick on board in March he'll be a major player. He has ability that has yet to be seen but I can't leave him out of calculations
Jerrysback - Bit of recency bias, but jono has spotted Derek O'Connor liking a tweet about him which just nudges it for me. He has some class and under DO'C I think he'll be in the mix.
Honourable mention to Kilbricken Storm (Which should please CoD)... not good enough to win an RSA, but an Albert Bartlett winner on bad ground clearly stays well, so this race would suit the most! If I knew he'd run, he'd have made the shortlist of 3.
Blow By Blow - Probably be everybodies, outpaced today over 2m4f (shock
) The Martin Pipe winners roll of honour is stackked with future stayers, and this horse is the template in that mould. I have no doubt he'll run here.Bacardys - jumped OKAY on debut, finished the race, I think Patrick on board in March he'll be a major player. He has ability that has yet to be seen but I can't leave him out of calculations
Jerrysback - Bit of recency bias, but jono has spotted Derek O'Connor liking a tweet about him which just nudges it for me. He has some class and under DO'C I think he'll be in the mix.
Honourable mention to Kilbricken Storm (Which should please CoD)... not good enough to win an RSA, but an Albert Bartlett winner on bad ground clearly stays well, so this race would suit the most! If I knew he'd run, he'd have made the shortlist of 3.
Of the horses that have had a run this season.... if you HAVE TO PICK a shortlist of 3....
Blow By Blow - Probably be everybodies, outpaced today over 2m4f (shock
Bacardys - jumped OKAY on debut, finished the race, I think Patrick on board in March he'll be a major player. He has ability that has yet to be seen but I can't leave him out of calculations
Jerrysback - Bit of recency bias, but jono has spotted Derek O'Connor liking a tweet about him which just nudges it for me. He has some class and under DO'C I think he'll be in the mix.
Honourable mention to Kilbricken Storm (Which should please CoD)... not good enough to win an RSA, but an Albert Bartlett winner on bad ground clearly stays well, so this race would suit the most! If I knew he'd run, he'd have made the shortlist of 3.
Kilbricken storm was lame. Don't rule him out of the rsa.
charlie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
I agree Kev, I have little doubt BBB runs here and I'm very surprised to see Ladbrokes still quoting 25/1. Can see 20's is still widely available.
5 out of the 6 ahead of BBB in the market are far more likely to be RSA bound (Delta Work, Kilbricken Storm, Santini, Next Destination and Cracking Smart), and we know that Delta Work and Santini have next to no chance of being aimed here.
Based on the information we have now, I am very surprised 25’s is available. Historically Gordon has done very well in the 4 miler. He cited the 4 miler at the start of the season. BBB jumps well and shapes like he is crying out for a step up in trip, he was one paced yesterday and that’s putting it lightly. He has festival form in a race (as Kev points out) that has an illustrious roll of honour for future stayers. Gigginstown have Cracking Smart, Delta Work and Champagne Classic that would be more likely to line up in the RSA.
Between 2011 and 2018 Gordon has won 3 NHC. Prices (winners in Bold):
Jury Duty 4/1f
Mossback 6/1
Tiger Roll 16/1
Noble Endeavor 15/2
Cause Of Causes 8/1
Chicago Grey 5/1f
Providing the step up to 3m+ goes well, which I imagine will happen at Leopardstown over xmas and/or the novice chase at Naas in Jan, there is no way BBB will go off anywhere near 25/1. B365 have him at 20/1. Given their cash out option I’d say that’s a cracking bet
5 out of the 6 ahead of BBB in the market are far more likely to be RSA bound (Delta Work, Kilbricken Storm, Santini, Next Destination and Cracking Smart), and we know that Delta Work and Santini have next to no chance of being aimed here.
Based on the information we have now, I am very surprised 25’s is available. Historically Gordon has done very well in the 4 miler. He cited the 4 miler at the start of the season. BBB jumps well and shapes like he is crying out for a step up in trip, he was one paced yesterday and that’s putting it lightly. He has festival form in a race (as Kev points out) that has an illustrious roll of honour for future stayers. Gigginstown have Cracking Smart, Delta Work and Champagne Classic that would be more likely to line up in the RSA.
Between 2011 and 2018 Gordon has won 3 NHC. Prices (winners in Bold):
Jury Duty 4/1f
Mossback 6/1
Tiger Roll 16/1
Noble Endeavor 15/2
Cause Of Causes 8/1
Chicago Grey 5/1f
Providing the step up to 3m+ goes well, which I imagine will happen at Leopardstown over xmas and/or the novice chase at Naas in Jan, there is no way BBB will go off anywhere near 25/1. B365 have him at 20/1. Given their cash out option I’d say that’s a cracking bet
Rhinestone_Cowboy
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Agree with all this Charlie and was also surprised to see how much he was pushed out. As much as I love the cash out option equally tempted by the 28s price boost with Ladbrokes.
Should also mention PP are unmoved at 14/1
Should also mention PP are unmoved at 14/1
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Agreed. There's no chance Blow by Blow lines up here in double figures even if he were to disappoint now until March, however bad he ran. Does anyone know his chase mark now? I'd imagine it's around 146? So he wouldn't be to far off the highest rated horses in this race already which is another big positive for him.
Concentrating on the horses with the highest OR is THE angle I look for more than any other now on this race. No doubt they'll be a couple of horses in here at 150+ but he could easily get to that kind of figure over his next couple of runs, especially if they are over trips more suited to him.
On Jerrysback - he's been upped to 144 after his win at the weekend which is encouraging in that regard as well. I'd like to see him have another run at the track (trials day) but I'd be assuming he will get another run or two in before getting his final prep run in the Reynoldstown at Ascot (Minella Rocco and No Comment both ran there before this race) and increase that rating further. The more experience the better for me though I know he has been fragile in the past so i'm sure they'll be making sure he has plenty of time between races.
:highly_amused: A fair comment
I've added Jerrysback with 365 - 33/1 - Derek on board?
If Jerrysback were to run in this race i'd be confident yeah. Has a good connection with the horse in his Point to Point days riding him all for times. Now the likes of O'Connor and Codd will often pick up the rides for any promising PtP horse so just saying he rode him before won't account to much but after his PtP win at Loughanmore he did say he was :
And the fact he liked a tweet where I asked him "You're ride in the 4 miler Derek?" in regards to Jerrysback...well that's pretty much legally binding now in my book :highly_amused:
Yeah, he'll refund any losing betting slips I heard.
http://www.hri-ras.ie/ihrb-handicap-ratings/full-nh-ratings/# Blow By Blow no chase rating on their yet and that's where I usually check. Delta Work is 153 who obviously won the race.
archie
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Blow By Blow has no chasing mark as yet. 150 over hurdles but he's not shown that level of form chasing. A line through Some Neck would have him around 144 but you wouldn't be thrilled about his attitude and I think Some Neck is over-rated on 145.