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National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2018

Kevloaf said:
Which do you think is an easier race to win?

Monalee for me is easily better than any horse in this race... at 5/1 RSA and 9/2 NH Chase - NRNB I trhink one is much easier to win than the other.
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Personally Kev , its between the two on what we seen this season. I actually think Percy has better chance here in RSA than the four miler as Davy Russell gets a right tune out of him.
 
I have Mall dini for this , same owner or Trainer as P.P i think. along with Elegant escape and Fagan .
 
Gigginstown could run all available entries bar Thunder And Roses in the Goffs Thyestes Chase on Thursday but the ground may be too heavy for Mall Dini, said owner Philip Reynolds, who has also entered Presenting Percy in the John Mulhern Galmoy Hurdle.

Reynolds said: "I’d like to see some let-up with regard to the rain if they are to run, though I'd like to run them. The ground is testing. The plan is that Presenting Percy will go in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham, Mall Dini the National Hunt Chase as a second-season novice."
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Mall Dini for the 4 miler. Katie Walsh's ride again?
 
Had a read through this thread last night and I noticed Kev pulled out a horse of Neil Mullholland, Impulsive Star, and I've round to thinking he might be onto something.
Owned by Waley-Cohen he's pretty much guaranteed to run here and of course will have his son on board who is one of the best amateurs around.

Some key trends for this:

Must have had at least 3 chase runs
Previous Cheltenham experience crucial
Securing one of the top pilots equally crucial
Focus on 7yo and 8yo (Minella Rocco won at 6 but he since went close in a Gold Cup so exceptionally talented)

All of these strengthen the case for Impulsive Star who was backed into fav in last years Pertemps where he was simply taken off his feet by the pace, that won't happen here.
The horse has been crying out for extreme test of stamina from an early age, he got within 8l of Wholestone in his novice hurdle days typically staying on and closest at the line, this race has to suit.
50/1 NRNB looks to be exceptional value.

Of course there are trends that that don't fit:

Hasn't competed in G1/G2 chase
Hasn't yet won a chase
Isn't owned by JP

But 50/1....
 
I think so too Ista. I saw he was pushed out to 50/1 NRNB which I thought was really strange? Have we missed an update on him?
 
cpfcpatriot said:
Mall Dini for the 4 miler. Katie Walsh's ride again?
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Bit of an over reaction in his price IMO after todays news.... 25/1 in to 12/1?

Not against him but that price is short?
 
Istabraq said:
Had a read through this thread last night and I noticed Kev pulled out a horse of Neil Mullholland, Impulsive Star, and I've round to thinking he might be onto something.
Owned by Waley-Cohen he's pretty much guaranteed to run here and of course will have his son on board who is one of the best amateurs around.

Some key trends for this:

Must have had at least 3 chase runs
Previous Cheltenham experience crucial
Securing one of the top pilots equally crucial
Focus on 7yo and 8yo (Minella Rocco won at 6 but he since went close in a Gold Cup so exceptionally talented)

All of these strengthen the case for Impulsive Star who was backed into fav in last years Pertemps where he was simply taken off his feet by the pace, that won't happen here.
The horse has been crying out for extreme test of stamina from an early age, he got within 8l of Wholestone in his novice hurdle days typically staying on and closest at the line, this race has to suit.
50/1 NRNB looks to be exceptional value.

Of course there are trends that that don't fit:

Hasn't competed in G1/G2 chase
Hasn't yet won a chase
Isn't owned by JP

But 50/1....
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How strong a bet do you think this is? Thinking of putting a few points on without doing any of my own research as you have made a very good sounding case.
 
Kevloaf said:
Bit of an over reaction in his price IMO after todays news.... 25/1 in to 12/1?

Not against him but that price is short?
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Yeah I saw the news and was like good time to back and it was an absolute blood bath. Managed to find some 16s but was seeing 12 and even 10 at which I wasn't going to bother
 
I like Mall Dini for this. Looked out of it in the Kim Muir but ran on well. Same could be said for his run over 29f at Fairyhouse. I think the further the better
 
Istabraq said:
Had a read through this thread last night and I noticed Kev pulled out a horse of Neil Mullholland, Impulsive Star, and I've round to thinking he might be onto something.
Owned by Waley-Cohen he's pretty much guaranteed to run here and of course will have his son on board who is one of the best amateurs around.

Some key trends for this:

Must have had at least 3 chase runs
Previous Cheltenham experience crucial
Securing one of the top pilots equally crucial
Focus on 7yo and 8yo (Minella Rocco won at 6 but he since went close in a Gold Cup so exceptionally talented)

All of these strengthen the case for Impulsive Star who was backed into fav in last years Pertemps where he was simply taken off his feet by the pace, that won't happen here.
The horse has been crying out for extreme test of stamina from an early age, he got within 8l of Wholestone in his novice hurdle days typically staying on and closest at the line, this race has to suit.
50/1 NRNB looks to be exceptional value.

Of course there are trends that that don't fit:

Hasn't competed in G1/G2 chase
Hasn't yet won a chase
Isn't owned by JP

But 50/1....
Click to expand...

At 50/1, I'm in. SWC will ride so I'd imagine he'd certain to line up here. It helps that Presenting Percy may not line up here either.

1pt ew Impulsive Star 50/1
 
Vautour said:
How strong a bet do you think this is? Thinking of putting a few points on without doing any of my own research as you have made a very good sounding case.
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I don't work on a point basis Vautour but I've had what I would consider to be a small to regulation bet, primarily because I need to protect the account, if you were to randomly log in and have £250 ew on a 50/1 shot I think your account would have a big red flag against it.
I'll be looking to have some more before tapes up....
 
Does anyone know whether this is the target for Jury Duty? I’ve heard that the long term plan is the Irish National and this race is usually a good pointer for that. Last year’s Pertemps form with Percy reads well in the context of this race, as does this year’s novice chase form. 14/1 without the NR concession looks more than fair?
 
I'm glad people are seeing what I'd seen in Impulsive Star... the odd thing is his price has got BIGGER since I thought it was a good bet at 33/1... :highly_amused:can't really get my head around why, although his last run wasn't great I don't think it was worth the push out to 50/1!

I'm at 1.5 pts e/w on him though... as I still think jono's Elegant Escape is a more likely winner...
 
Kevloaf said:
I'm glad people are seeing what I'd seen in Impulsive Star... the odd thing is his price has got BIGGER since I thought it was a good bet at 33/1... :highly_amused:can't really get my head around why, although his last run wasn't great I don't think it was worth the push out to 50/1!

I'm at 1.5 pts e/w on him though... as I still think jono's Elegant Escape is a more likely winner...
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Any news on elegant escape? He's got every right to go for the rsa but I wouldn't like to 2nd guess tizzard
 
Kevloaf said:
I'm glad people are seeing what I'd seen in Impulsive Star... the odd thing is his price has got BIGGER since I thought it was a good bet at 33/1... :highly_amused:can't really get my head around why, although his last run wasn't great I don't think it was worth the push out to 50/1!

I'm at 1.5 pts e/w on him though... as I still think jono's Elegant Escape is a more likely winner...
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I'm not sure if you touched on it in your post Kev but there a plenty of similarities between Impulsive Star and Missed Approach (who finished 2nd in the 4 miler at 50/1).
 
Scooby91 said:
Any news on elegant escape? He's got every right to go for the rsa but I wouldn't like to 2nd guess tizzard
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Not that I've seen specifically recently. Can't be confident despite it looking blindingly obvious EE should go here!

My position in this race:

Elegant Escape - 50/1 - 0.5 pts e/w
Impulsive Star - 50/1 - 0.75 pts e/w & 33/1 0.75 pts e/w
Fagan - 25/1 - 2 pts win
Presenting Percy - 33/1 0.5 pts e/w

Cashed out all the PP bets I had other than the one above.
 
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