MARTIN PIPE Conditionals Handicap Hurdle

[JackieMoon33]

I don't think Saint Felicien needs another 4f, but someone is pushing that kid and dropping him info so it's worth keeping in mind.

In a pre-season video he didn’t even know Saint Felicien wasn’t a novice! I think he’s heard some whispers as he was calling him a ‘machine/rocket/aeroplane’ and he’d only run the once in France at the time.

 

[nortonscoin200]

Chemical Energy absolutely nailed on to get a run in the Pipe with 137.

Here's how things have panned out in the Pipe over the last 6 years: Lowest rating followed by ratings of the 1234.

2021: lowest 132....142/135/143/136
2020: lowest 136....145/138/136/137 ...You know who was on 143 (sorry to bring it up)
2019: lowest 126....145/140/139/126
2018: lowest 136....144/136/142/144
2017: lowest 135....138/135/140/138
2016: lowest 135....139/138/135/140

 

[fitzy78]

Chemical Energy absolutely nailed on to get a run in the Pipe with 137.

Here's how things have panned out in the Pipe over the last 6 years: Lowest rating followed by ratings of the 1234.

2021: lowest 132....142/135/143/136
2020: lowest 136....145/138/136/137 ...You know who was on 143 (sorry to bring it up)
2019: lowest 126....145/140/139/126
2018: lowest 136....144/136/142/144
2017: lowest 135....138/135/140/138
2016: lowest 135....139/138/135/140

Seems like Top Bandit is being primed for this race, Elliot is entering up hcap plots to find their english marks, 139 and cheltenham form is a standout imo

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Seems like Top Bandit is being primed for this race, Elliot is entering up hcap plots to find their english marks, 139 and cheltenham form is a standout imo

Yes fitzy78 he would be my idea as his one for this race too :encouragement:

 

[DenmanSacre]

All of Elliotts that have won this race raced in a graded race that season.

Column of Fire could have scuppered that but it still holds true. I couldn't have one of his in this race without that.

 

[nortonscoin200]

Seems like Top Bandit is being primed for this race, Elliot is entering up hcap plots to find their english marks, 139 and cheltenham form is a standout imo

I like him too fitzy but he and Chemical Energy both run in the colours of Andrew Brown - will they both target the same race.

Also, Chemical Energy has had more of a Gordon-style prep for the Pipe than Top Bandit so far - running in and winning twice over 2m 4f and contesting a graded race.

But I'm not trying to crab Top Bandit - look like he has plenty of potential, possibly more than Chemical Energy.

Might yet join you with a bandit at 5 o'clock (or thereabouts on the Friday).

 

[Spectre]

I like him too fitzy but he and Chemical Energy both run in the colours of Andrew Brown - will they both target the same race.

Also, Chemical Energy has had more of a Gordon-style prep for the Pipe than Top Bandit so far - running in and winning twice over 2m 4f and contesting a graded race.

But I'm not trying to crab Top Bandit - look like he has plenty of potential, possibly more than Chemical Energy.

Might yet join you with a bandit at 5 o'clock (or thereabouts on the Friday).

Isn't Top Bandit more likely for the County Hurdle. Two miles on the new course looks like it would suit perfectly. With Chemical Energy also supposedly destined for the Pipe it would seem like a more obvious destination.

 

[Goldentouch]

Does anyone know if any horses have ran in this race more than once and won?

I’ve backed Folcano for the Pertemps, but now I’ve seen the provisional rating only a few lbs higher (135) than it’s rating for this last year (132) , I worry that they will have another crack, considering it unseated at the 1st..

Any one else have any thoughts or stats on this? Thanks!

 

[nortonscoin200]

Isn't Top Bandit more likely for the County Hurdle. Two miles on the new course looks like it would suit perfectly. With Chemical Energy also supposedly destined for the Pipe it would seem like a more obvious destination.

Spot on Spectre, reckon he'd be one for the short list in the County - the style of running he showed at Cheltenham this season would be ideally suited to the County. Obviously gets two miles well too which is a big plus.

 

[Nwfb89]

Does anyone know if any horses have ran in this race more than once and won?

I’ve backed Folcano for the Pertemps, but now I’ve seen the provisional rating only a few lbs higher (135) than it’s rating for this last year (132) , I worry that they will have another crack, considering it unseated at the 1st..

Any one else have any thoughts or stats on this? Thanks!

Yes they have, early doors was 3rd in 2018 and then won in 2019

 

[Odin]

Does anyone know if any horses have ran in this race more than once and won?

I’ve backed Folcano for the Pertemps, but now I’ve seen the provisional rating only a few lbs higher (135) than it’s rating for this last year (132) , I worry that they will have another crack, considering it unseated at the 1st..

Any one else have any thoughts or stats on this? Thanks!

For info, I also backed folcano for pertemps initially but think he was trying when running in the 3m Navan handicap hurdle and just doesn't stay. Either this or the coral would be the target I expect him to take up at the festival. Hopefully (for me and a couple of others on here) tullybeg can prove an able deputy in the pertemps

 

[jrjr]

Isn't Top Bandit more likely for the County Hurdle. Two miles on the new course looks like it would suit perfectly. With Chemical Energy also supposedly destined for the Pipe it would seem like a more obvious destination.

Yep, this is where I expect to see him. Currently sitting top of my handicap shortlist.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Isn't Top Bandit more likely for the County Hurdle. Two miles on the new course looks like it would suit perfectly. With Chemical Energy also supposedly destined for the Pipe it would seem like a more obvious destination.

Exactly how I’d see it. Top Bandit not tried over further than 2m which would be against Gordon’s usual MO. Coupled with he travels and finishes off races great over 2m means I can’t see Top Bandit stepping up. He also need to be delivered late which they’ll be able to in a fast paced County.

 

[Lobos]

Exactly how I’d see it. Top Bandit not tried over further than 2m which would be against Gordon’s usual MO. Coupled with he travels and finishes off races great over 2m means I can’t see Top Bandit stepping up. He also need to be delivered late which they’ll be able to in a fast paced County.

He beat Jetoile into 3rd at Cheltenham as well which now looks really solid form.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

He beat Jetoile into 3rd at Cheltenham as well which now looks really solid form.

Jetoile went up in trip to win the next twice, as did the 2nd, Brorson, who has also won his next two starts. The form is good, no question about that, but he beat horses over a trip that now looked inadequate for them.

From that, I gauge he too could be very useful up in trip, coupled with his breeding.

I couldn't 100% discount the County Hurdle as a target, though I do have another couple of Gordons in mind for that.

For me, I think Top Bandit would be a serious contender for this race though.

As he is under 141 he would still have time to run up in trip once the weights are out and only clobber a 5lb penalty for it, so would still get in.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Jetoile went up in trip to win the next twice, as did the 2nd, Brorson, who has also won his next two starts. The form is good, no question about that, but he beat horses over a trip that now looked inadequate for them.

From that, I gauge he too could be very useful up in trip, coupled with his breeding.

I couldn't 100% discount the County Hurdle as a target, though I do have another couple of Gordons in mind for that.

For me, I think Top Bandit would be a serious contender for this race though.

As he is under 141 he would still have time to run up in trip once the weights are out and only clobber a 5lb penalty for it, so would still get in.

If you didn’t know his breeding and only watched his races, would you think he needs a step up? The breeding angle is questionable in this case anyway and never conclusive.

I very much doubt they’ll want to take a penalty into the Festival and add anything extra to his mark when he’s already guaranteed to run in any handicap they want.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

If you didn’t know his breeding and only watched his races, would you think he needs a step up? The breeding angle is questionable in this case anyway and never conclusive.

I very much doubt they’ll want to take a penalty into the Festival and add anything extra to his mark when he’s already guaranteed to run in any handicap they want.

It's kinda irrelevant because we do have his breeding, but if I had to look on form alone he doesn't interest me for the County at all, especially off 139. He's been beating low level horses over 2m, and has a high enough mark for doing so. I've looked at the form, and noted what he has beat and what they've gone on to do, and the majority need or have produced over further. If he's an out and out 2 miler he needs to be having the speed and pace to be beating them further, IMO.

If he was being primed for the County I'd be wanting a Belfast Banter rating of around 129, for a novice, like him. He's 2lbs higher than Saint Roi when he ran in the race, and on what we've seen (manner of victories) I'd have him in no way close to him. The only way I see enough improvement in him for a festival race is a step up in trip, and the Martin Pipe has that ceiling of 145, so you know the rough level you're aiming at, which is what Gordon is so good at.

As I've said before, I may be way off the mark, but I won't be backing for the County Hurdle, regardless, and will congratulate those that have should he end up winning it

 

[Quevega]

It's kinda irrelevant because we do have his breeding, but if I had to look on form alone he doesn't interest me for the County at all, especially off 139. He's been beating low level horses over 2m, and has a high enough mark for doing so. I've looked at the form, and noted what he has beat and what they've gone on to do, and the majority need or have produced over further. If he's an out and out 2 miler he needs to be having the speed and pace to be beating them further, IMO.

If he was being primed for the County I'd be wanting a Belfast Banter rating of around 129, for a novice, like him. He's 2lbs higher than Saint Roi when he ran in the race, and on what we've seen (manner of victories) I'd have him in no way close to him. The only way I see enough improvement in him for a festival race is a step up in trip, and the Martin Pipe has that ceiling of 145, so you know the rough level you're aiming at, which is what Gordon is so good at.

As I've said before, I may be way off the mark, but I won't be backing for the County Hurdle, regardless, and will congratulate those that have should he end up winning it

Belfast Banter was fortunate to get in.
Most years you need to be in low 130's at least.
Sweet spot going back a few years is actually around the 139 mark,

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Belfast Banter was fortunate to get in.

Yeah, I'm aware of that, but that doesn't change the sort of rating I would be wanting Top Bandit to have for a race like the County. Belfast Banter was running, with a fair amount of respect as well, in some graded races, before his County Hurdle win, a fair gap to what Top Bandit has been running in.

 

[JackieMoon33]

It's kinda irrelevant because we do have his breeding, but if I had to look on form alone he doesn't interest me for the County at all, especially off 139. He's been beating low level horses over 2m, and has a high enough mark for doing so. I've looked at the form, and noted what he has beat and what they've gone on to do, and the majority need or have produced over further. If he's an out and out 2 miler he needs to be having the speed and pace to be beating them further, IMO.

If he was being primed for the County I'd be wanting a Belfast Banter rating of around 129, for a novice, like him. He's 2lbs higher than Saint Roi when he ran in the race, and on what we've seen (manner of victories) I'd have him in no way close to him. The only way I see enough improvement in him for a festival race is a step up in trip, and the Martin Pipe has that ceiling of 145, so you know the rough level you're aiming at, which is what Gordon is so good at.

As I've said before, I may be way off the mark, but I won't be backing for the County Hurdle, regardless, and will congratulate those that have should he end up winning it

It's not irrelevant as the forum is littered with wrongly assumed trips based on breeding and I'm guilty as much as the next man. Breeding is only part of the equation and there is nothing conclusive on that front to suggest a step up is what he's crying out for. The eye test on the other hand gives an indication of a powerful traveller with a turn of foot and CD experience (albeit not the same 'course' as the County but I don't think that will inconvenience him). If you watch his races back and read the comments, he does need to be delivered late and is a bit of an idler, therefore his winning margins are never going to be huge regardless of racing against stayers. If anything, racing stayers would inconvenience him more as he's likely to go past them earlier.

Belfast Banter was an outlier as you'd rarely get in on 129 in a normal year.