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MARTIN PIPE Conditionals Handicap Hurdle

JackieMoon33 said:
It's not irrelevant as the forum is littered with wrongly assumed trips based on breeding and I'm guilty as much as the next man. Breeding is only part of the equation and there is nothing conclusive on that front to suggest a step up is what he's crying out for. The eye test on the other hand gives an indication of a powerful traveller with a turn of foot and CD experience (albeit not the same 'course' as the County but I don't think that will inconvenience him). If you watch his races back and read the comments, he does need to be delivered late and is a bit of an idler, therefore his winning margins are never going to be huge regardless of racing against stayers. If anything, racing stayers would inconvenience him more as he's likely to go past them earlier.

Belfast Banter was an outlier as you'd rarely get in on 129 in a normal year.
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I meant it's irrelevant because we do still have his breeding to go on and it is a small (sometimes bigger where limited information is available) part of the make up of a decision, or at least it is for me. It's, of course, not the be all and end all (now I sound like Nicholls), but I take it into consideration, in some cases more than others. The 'eye test' is up for as much scrutiny as relying on breeding, because we tend to see what we want to see, no different to when we are using our eyes to read through form lines, we may ignore some areas and use the ones that increase our ability to defend our opinion, I believe the term is 'confirmation bias' though I may be wrong.

I've been and watched the replays of his runs, and I think he travels well enough that a step up in trip would suit him really well (my confirmation bias creeping in :highly_amused:).

As I noted to Quevega, the point in relation to Belfast Banter is where I think his rating should be for what he's actually achieved, which is also why I think the Martin Pipe would be more appropriate for him as it has a 'ceiling' on rated horses (145), whereas the County is a completely open handicap.

I actually just been through the last 10 winners of the race and with the exception of Saint Roi (surprise, surprise, a Willie Mullins horse), the other 9 winners have run in a Graded race of some sorts, previously at some point to winning it. Saint Roi, was, what I would call, a proper plot, a bit like Galopin Des Champs, last season, in the Martin Pipe.

Not that it should have an awful lot of relevance, but Petit Mouchoir, last season, was the closest Gordon (obviously ran under Denise Foster) has come to winning the County Hurdle. I don't think it's a race he has much success in, and a 139 rated novice hurdler, who has average winning form, definitely does not appeal to me.

FWIW, Belfast Banter running off 129, isn't actually the lowest rated in the last 3 seasons, as Chieftain's Choice ran off 127 in 2019. The lowest ratings to be able to get in to a County are very up and down, and literally just depend on the year.
 
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….Langer Dan Imperial Cup/MP 16-1 Sky.
 
Basically 3/1 for each race. Surely not. One of the worst that imo. Winning the first isn't even a requirement for him to run in the second, which for me is a key consideration with these bets.
 
Langer may need his Imperial run after his lay off to bring him on for the Martin Pipe race a few days later. Be good if he gets beat at Sandown but runs a decent race so that his MP price is better value.
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
Makes me wonder where we are heading in terms of ante post prices for the festival.
2 months to go and a horse is 16 to win 2 competitive handicaps??
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Two ultra competitive handicaps with 40+ opponents at vastly contrasting venues probably on different ground.
There have been some poor ones but 16s is about as bad as it gets from that lot…
 
I would be interested in opinions on why the same bet a year before was 66! And that was not 2 months to go!!

ok it was close to coming off, but even so!!
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
I would be interested in opinions on why the same bet a year before was 66! And that was not 2 months to go!!

ok it was close to coming off, but even so!!
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If you're selling shit, and people keep buying shit, you're going to produce more shit.
Even if it's not good shit.
 
Lobos said:
Langer may need his Imperial run after his lay off to bring him on for the Martin Pipe race a few days later. Be good if he gets beat at Sandown but runs a decent race so that his MP price is better value.
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This was my thought. Has a prep run before his Imperial cup last year. Which makes the bet even worse than the price suggests.
 
Benjy23 said:
This was my thought. Has a prep run before his Imperial cup last year. Which makes the bet even worse than the price suggests.
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Is he not having a prep this year?

Last I read the plan was have a prep then sandown and Cheltenham
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Is he not having a prep this year?

Last I read the plan was have a prep then sandown and Cheltenham
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Fair point. He's still got plenty of time before the Imperial hasn't he.

He'd have to get beaten in his prep run wouldn't he? I know he was in his prep last year but if he went up he'd risk not getting in the MP.
 
Lobos said:
Thought it was straight to Imperial then MP if ok?
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Josh Stacey suggested the skeltons plan was to get a prep

Then go sandown and Cheltenham

Was in lets talk racings recent handicap video

If they don't get a prep I wouldnt like him for either race

Running a horse twice in a week after a year off seems like a terrible idea
 
Young josh coming out with some interesting stuff.
not having it myself
not all of it anyway
 
Skelton thought west might have bounced so the plan for langer don’t make sense
 
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