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Mares Novice Hurdle 2020

Scooby91 said:
I'd be careful doing that at the price she is now. Big assumption. And likely the other way round if your inclined to back shorties.
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8-1 is fine if she turns out to be the Mullins Number one, What i mean is, theres no real point of backing Dolcita right now but if we haven't seen Lamarckise by middle/late Jan then i expect people will be thinking of jumping on Dolcita before her second run. Obviously hope we see Lamarckise out before then.
 
SAMCRO said:
8-1 is fine if she turns out to be the Mullins Number one, What i mean is, theres no real point of backing Dolcita right now but if we haven't seen Lamarckise by middle/late Jan then i expect people will be thinking of jumping on Dolcita before her second run. Obviously hope we see Lamarckise out before then.
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Shes been away schooling. There's no issue.

But by all means if you think that dolcita is the No1 do as planned. But would be foolish not to have done so already. If that's a plan.
 
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Scooby91 said:
I was waiting for that.
Let dolcita have the easy race, really?
When Willie's got half a dozen nice geldings to come out.
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I said it was a possiblity, and I was wondering, not on the verge of backing it.

He has plenty, we know that. I don't see any other reason than the one I put up about the owners wanting to have another go at the Supreme, as to why she would go there, it was merely a thought.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I said it was a possiblity, and I was wondering, not on the verge of backing it.

He has plenty, we know that. I don't see any other reason than the one I put up about the owners wanting to have another go at the Supreme, as to why she would go there, it was merely a thought.
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They have 2 horses, I'm sure they would be absolutely delighted to win the mares nov. And wouldnt look back and think for a second that they might have won a supreme.

The mains thing is just getting both dolcita and lamarckise to the mares nov safe and sound.
 
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Scooby91 said:
They have 2 horses, I'm sure they would be absolutely delighted to win the mares nov. And wouldnt think for a second that they might have won a supreme.
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You're probably going to be right, the odds certainly back that, as they had done before I mentioned it. But worth pondering IMO, otherwise I wouldn't have mentioned it.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I said it was a possiblity, and I was wondering, not on the verge of backing it.

He has plenty, we know that. I don't see any other reason than the one I put up about the owners wanting to have another go at the Supreme, as to why she would go there, it was merely a thought.
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I think you may have an angle myself.
Should dolcita go on to win her next race really well, beating any other Irish trained mares from other stables, and her price goes even shorter,

It would not be unusual for Willie to reduce his numbers in the race and fire another really good one at another race if it suits his ambition.

This obviously depends on us seeing Lamarckise at any point and she looks good too.

It would be unusual for him to run two favourites in the same race, although not out of the question.
Might be worth waiting for Lamarckise entry though.
 
quevega said:
I think you may have an angle myself.
Should dolcita go on to win her next race really well, beating any other Irish trained mares from other stables, and her price goes even shorter,

It would not be unusual for Willie to reduce his numbers in the race and fire another really good one at another race if it suits his ambition.

This obviously depends on us seeing Lamarckise at any point and she looks good too.

It would be unusual for him to run two favourites in the same race, although not out of the question.
Might be worth waiting for Lamarckise entry though.
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My feeling currently is he wouldn't just put them against each other, but ultimately it depends how good both are. He chucked 7 against each other in this years race, however it doesn't look as though any one of them is a stand out in terms of ability, now in open company, so he was ultimately hedging his bets.

It will be interesting to see where we are once Lamarckise comes out. If she looks a worldy then the Supreme would definitely not be off the table IMO.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
My feeling currently is he wouldn't just put them against each other, but ultimately it depends how good both are. He chucked 7 against each other in this years race, however it doesn't look as though any one of them is a stand out in terms of ability, in open company.

It will be interesting to see where we are once Lamarckise comes out. If she looks a worldy then the Supreme would definitely not be off the table IMO.
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The entry should provide a big clue. Should we get one.
 
Like envoi allen all over again. You dont let the 2nd string dictate where the 1st goes.

There are people who have backed lamarckise for the mares nov, that will know where she is going. (Should she stay sound)
 
Scooby91 said:
Like envoi allen all over again. You dont let the 2nd string dictate where the 1st goes.

There are people who have backed lamarckise for the mares nov, that will know where she is going. (Should she stay sound)
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I don't disagree. Only thing is we know Envoi Allen is no.1, we don't know that of Lamarckise, do we?
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I don't disagree. Only thing is we know Envoi Allen is no.1, we don't know that of Lamarckise, do we?
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I dont want to be too bullish until we see it on the track.
Hopefully they both make it there, and we will find out on the day. Dolcita hopefully wins the solerina 1st.
 
Scooby91 said:
I dont want to be too bullish until we see it on the track.
Hopefully they both make it there, and we will find out on the day. Dolcita hopefully wins the solerina 1st.
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I'm down for this happening
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I'm down for this happening
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Will be interesting to see if they have the cheek to go for a stable staff bonus race with lamarckise or just play it safe and get her there in one piece.
 
Scooby91 said:
Like envoi allen all over again. You dont let the 2nd string dictate where the 1st goes.

There are people who have backed lamarckise for the mares nov, that will know where she is going. (Should she stay sound)
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I know for a fact.
Willie ranks his horse's according to what they do in actual races on the course. They earn his full respect there.
Even if he has an idea who is likely to end up the best, from seeing them in training or practice races, there is no real substitute to a proper race.
The idea that yards have first and second string's in the novice division is silly (especially in a yard like Mullins). The difference in ability at the top level is very difficult to assess without being put to the fullest of tests in graded races etc. (it'd be like trying to put all the sky sports news presenters in some sort of order)

He also couldn't care less about gambles, especially at such a low level.
When deciding on entries though. He will factor in the form of any opposition and the betting markets too.

Having said all that, he's still likely to run a mares novice in the mares novice. So it's one of those pointless hypothetical chats.

It's just going to be a possibility that if they are both extremely good and prove it on the track, that he thinks about sending one to another race (should he think they have a chance that is).

If he could have the favourite in two races vs the Jt Fav's in one race then I know what he'd likely do (or at least think about it).
 
Scooby91 said:
Like envoi allen all over again. You dont let the 2nd string dictate where the 1st goes.

There are people who have backed lamarckise for the mares nov, that will know where she is going. (Should she stay sound)
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Wink, wink, say no more.
 
quevega said:
I know for a fact.
Willie ranks his horse's according to what they do in actual races on the course. They earn his full respect there.
Even if he has an idea who is likely to end up the best, from seeing them in training or practice races, there is no real substitute to a proper race.
The idea that yards have first and second string's in the novice division is silly (especially in a yard like Mullins). The difference in ability at the top level is very difficult to assess without being put to the fullest of tests in graded races etc. (it'd be like trying to put all the sky sports news presenters in some sort of order)

He also couldn't care less about gambles, especially at such a low level.
When deciding on entries though. He will factor in the form of any opposition and the betting markets too.

Having said all that, he's still likely to run a mares novice in the mares novice. So it's one of those pointless hypothetical chats.

It's just going to be a possibility that if they are both extremely good and prove it on the track, that he thinks about sending one to another race (should he think they have a chance that is).

If he could have the favourite in two races vs the Jt Fav's in one race then I know what he'd likely do (or at least think about it).
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He was quite adamant that Ruby should ride Melon in the supreme based on homework and not what him and the others had done on the racecourse. Got that one right just ran into one!
 
SAMCRO said:
He was quite adamant that Ruby should ride Melon in the supreme based on homework and not what him and the others had done on the racecourse. Got that one right just ran into one!
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Not sure what your point is here. You can expand on it if it's possible.

He did not have any stand out contenders that year.
Bunk off early and Cilaos emery were only maiden winners themselves.

BTW, he can also get it wrong, as Cilaos went on the beat Melon at Punchestown with Danny Mullins riding.:devilish:
 
quevega said:
Not sure what your point is here. You can expand on it if it's possible.

He did not have any stand out contenders that year.
Bunk off early and Cilaos emery were only maiden winners themselves.

BTW, he can also get it wrong, as Cilaos went on the beat Melon at Punchestown with Danny Mullins riding.:devilish:
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I think his point is that you are saying yards don't have first or second strings. Yet Willie said he was adamant Ruby would want to ride Melon....no?
 
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