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Mares Novice Hurdle 2018

Liked Cap Soleil hurdles debut a lot but would be worried that she wouldn't quite have the speed for 2m on good ground at Prestbury Park in March. Think she much prefers some dig and a step up in trip will be the order of the day sooner rather than later.
 
I feel maybe, with regards to yesterdays race, that it gives Henderson/JP a sighter for Dame De Compagnie, running Countister against Cap Soleil, I may also be wrong.

Obviously I still believe they wanted to win the race, but it wouldn't be the first time a horse is run to gauge the level of opposition, I think Willie does it a lot in Ireland and Elliott is starting to do it quite a bit now too.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I feel maybe, with regards to yesterdays race, that it gives Henderson/JP a sighter for Dame De Compagnie, running Countister against Cap Soleil, I may also be wrong.

Obviously I still believe they wanted to win the race, but it wouldn't be the first time a horse is run to gauge the level of opposition, I think Willie does it a lot in Ireland and Elliott is starting to do it quite a bit now too.
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The race cap soleil won yesterday was a graded race in all but name. She couldn't have won it any easier, on the eye dame de compagnie's run was very pleasing but the quality of this race was different gravy.
 
Scooby91 said:
The race cap soleil won yesterday was a graded race in all but name. She couldn't have won it any easier, on the eye dame de compagnie's run was very pleasing but the quality of this race was different gravy.
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I agree the level of races were entirely different, although that wasn't my actual point of my post. More so, that trainers/same connections send out alternative runners to see where they are against the opposition for their other potential higher regarded runners.
 
That was probably the best ground Cap Soleil has encountered and to me her best performance. Genuine good ground would be a worry come March, but that's the only worry keeping her price at 8s. Bit of collateral form to stew on - Cap Soleil beat Just A Thought 6 lengths, If You Say Run beat Just A Thought 3 lengths. If You Say Run beat Rouergate 13 lengths, Dame De Compagnie beat Rouergate 6 lengths. Obviously take all that with a pinch of salt given that they were all at different stages in their development, it was over slightly different distances, different ground etc, but it does put Cap Soleil about 10 lengths clear of Dame De Compagnie if you read it literally. Regardless of that, other than the worry of good ground I just can't find a chink in Cap Soleil's form or potential, so hopefully the Mullins hotpots come out and look impressive for this race to keep her price decent. If a week before the festival we can see that there will be some kind of rain about then i'll be going in again big
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I agree the level of races were entirely different, although that wasn't my actual point of my post. More so, that trainers/same connections send out alternative runners to see where they are against the opposition for their other potential higher regarded runners.
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I'm not even sure henderson would know who is the better of the 2 just yet, id be surprised if countister diddnt cost jp more than dame de compagnie, as her aqps form is of a much higher level. And her 2nd behind dduca de thaix is hard to read in terms of graded class, I backed him last year at 40s nrnb for th triumph where he wasn't seen out. He's entered up at the weekend though
 
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Scooby91 said:
I'm not even sure henderson would know who is the better of the 2 just yet, id be surprised if countister diddnt cost jp more than dame de compagnie, as her aqps form is of a much higher level. And her 2nd behind dduca de thaix is hard to read in terms of graded class, I backed him last year at 40s nrnb for th triumph where he wasn't seen out. He's entered up at the weekend though
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Not sure about their individual costs but then not every best horse from a bunch is the most expensive. Henderson also has Daphne Du Clos, who actually has some form with Cap Soleil too, going down by a head in a bumper over 1m 6f at Cheltenham, so will be interesting to see how she fares over hurdles too. She is more lightly raced (just) than the rest also.
 
Robante said:
That was probably the best ground Cap Soleil has encountered and to me her best performance. Genuine good ground would be a worry come March, but that's the only worry keeping her price at 8s. Bit of collateral form to stew on - Cap Soleil beat Just A Thought 6 lengths, If You Say Run beat Just A Thought 3 lengths. If You Say Run beat Rouergate 13 lengths, Dame De Compagnie beat Rouergate 6 lengths. Obviously take all that with a pinch of salt given that they were all at different stages in their development, it was over slightly different distances, different ground etc, but it does put Cap Soleil about 10 lengths clear of Dame De Compagnie if you read it literally. Regardless of that, other than the worry of good ground I just can't find a chink in Cap Soleil's form or potential, so hopefully the Mullins hotpots come out and look impressive for this race to keep her price decent. If a week before the festival we can see that there will be some kind of rain about then i'll be going in again big
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Taking novice debut form over hurdles literally is a risky business. It's difficult as we've no idea how tuned up each horse was for their respective races. Add in the fact that both are held up in their races and it's even more problematic to assess the collateral.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Not sure about their individual costs but then not every best horse from a bunch is the most expensive. Henderson also has Daphne Du Clos, who actually has some form with Cap Soleil too, going down by a head in a bumper over 1m 6f at Cheltenham, so will be interesting to see how she fares over hurdles too. She is more lightly raced (just) than the rest also.
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Agreed, purchase price does not always translate to the best horse long term.
 
Scooby91 said:
The race cap soleil won yesterday was a graded race in all but name. She couldn't have won it any easier, on the eye dame de compagnie's run was very pleasing but the quality of this race was different gravy.
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Both are hold up horses so it's impossible to make any real comparisons between the two races. Cap Soleil certainly has the best form based on what she beat but Dame De Compagnie was never going to blitz away in her race due to her running style.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Taking novice debut form over hurdles literally is a risky business. It's difficult as we've no idea how tuned up each horse was for their respective races. Add in the fact that both are held up in their races and it's even more problematic to assess the collateral.
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Agree entirely, that's why i said to take it with a pinch of salt. I have Dame De Compagnie covered for this, but would be shocked if Cap Soleil doesn't finish ahead of her given some juice in the ground come March. I think her level of form is superior (having spent many an hour assessing the merits of the French form)
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Not sure about their individual costs but then not every best horse from a bunch is the most expensive. Henderson also has Daphne Du Clos, who actually has some form with Cap Soleil too, going down by a head in a bumper over 1m 6f at Cheltenham, so will be interesting to see how she fares over hurdles too. She is more lightly raced (just) than the rest also.
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Daphne out for the season. the main reason I went bigger on the rest
 
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Robante said:
Agree entirely, that's why i said to take it with a pinch of salt. I have Dame De Compagnie covered for this, but would be shocked if Cap Soleil doesn't finish ahead of her given some juice in the ground come March. I think her level of form is superior (having spent many an hour assessing the merits of the French form)
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Until they both have more UK form to go on, I couldn't be so brave to to say Cap Soleil will finish ahead of Dame De Compagnie in March. Not only is the French form not easy to assess, each horse will also progress at different rates this season. We've only seen one Hurdle performance from each so proclaiming the victor is very bold!
 
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Duca De Thaix travelled into the Grade 3 race won by Early Doors today. He was going as well as any but then emptied out after the second last. He could be forgiven that, seeing as it was his first start in nearly 400 days and the ground would have really tested them today. This is the only real collateral on offer for Dame De Compagnie as she finished a close second to him in France.

I'll be keeping an eye on Duca De Thaix for a handicap this year. Because he won in France but never made the track in his juvenile season in Ireland, he has forfeited a Novice season over hurdles. He's now thrown in the deep end and as he's inexperienced, they may take it easy with him in open company with a view to setting up a good mark for him.
 
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Ainsi Va La Vie entered up at Thurles next Thursday in a race that one of Willie's better ones usually contests.
 
I usually like to stay grounded when it comes to Novices but the fact that Henderson has entered Dame De Compagnie in the Supreme Novice trial at the weekend (intended runner) is a huge positive regarding her potential. Henderson would usually preserve his Novices unbeaten tags for as long as possible so to pitch her into a Supreme Trial at Cheltenham against the boys is a huge signal to her ability in my opinion. As long as she runs close, she's still my pick for this race.
 
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