March ‘25 Yankee

[CJW]

Mundi could be next years county horse

Mundi has been mentioned but much too soon, yellow card . :tongue-new:

 

[Eggs]

….William Munny popular suggestion, I think he’s one for this month given the trainers comments (unfortunately the 16-1 has just gone);


Barry Connell already has his sights set on a novice chasing campaign with William Munny after confirming the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle runner-up will not run again this season.

Two years on from Connell winning the Cheltenham Festival curtain raiser with his new Champion Chase hero Marine Nationale, history looked like it may repeat itself as the mount of Sean Flanagan stalked Kopek Des Bordes into the home straight and had Willie Mullins’ star novice within reach at the final flight.

The seven-year-old got within two lengths of Kopek Des Bordes but was unable to reel in the heavy favourite, finishing a brave and creditable second in a race fittingly named after Connell’s former stable jockey, the late Michael O’Sullivan.

The Kildare handler feels softer ground in the future would play to his charge’s strengths and having watched him gradually improve over hurdles during the current campaign, he is relishing the prospect of sending William Munny over the larger obstacles next term and returning to Prestbury Park in the spring for a crack at the Arkle.

Connell said: “He ran a super race and I think it was one of the strongest novice races we’ve seen anywhere in the last five years, there was some real strength and depth.

“Without the winner, we would have been a very good six-length winner and he ran a brilliant race.

“He’s a horse who has been doing everything wrong and the penny only dropped for him at Punchestown three weeks before Cheltenham and he then settled well and put in a great round of jumping in the Supreme.

“He’s a horse who is much better on soft ground and it’s a pity the ground was quick on the first couple of days, they were barely making a print in it, and our guy came back quite jarred after the race.

“He definitely will be better with an ease in the ground and he definitely won’t run again this season – he’s had two runs close together and Punchestown (Festival) hardly ever comes up soft.

“The plan is to go novice chasing next season, he’s done his job over hurdles now and we’ll look forward to putting together a campaign and hopefully going back for the Arkle next year.”
​

 

[Eggs]

…..personally quite liking 3 of the shouts already;

William Munny (Ark) 12-1
Kitzbuhel (BANC) 20-1
Marine National (CC) 7-1

 

[RufusFlynn]

Derryhassen Paddy for the BANC at around 25/1.

The yard obviously think massively of him - ran an excellent race on ground that was probably on the quicker side for him.

Will undoubtedly be going chasing next year. Slight risk he goes Ultima if he gets the required runs but I think that given they pitched him in the A.Bartlett then his more likely target is the BANC. Yard have an incredible Cheltenham record in recent years from a small number of runners and have sent Giovinco & Ahoy Senor (both placed) to the Grade 1 Novices race in recent years.

 

[Eggs]

Derryhassen Paddy for the BANC at around 25/1.

The yard obviously think massively of him - ran an excellent race on ground that was probably on the quicker side for him.

Will undoubtedly be going chasing next year. Slight risk he goes Ultima if he gets the required runs but I think that given they pitched him in the A.Bartlett then his more likely target is the BANC. Yard have an incredible Cheltenham record in recent years from a small number of runners and have sent Giovinco & Ahoy Senor (both placed) to the Grade 1 Novices race in recent years.

….i like him lots and had 100-1 AB, they clearly adore him and he’s in my book already. Still a pleasant 33-1 with 365 (Hills only offer 16-1).

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Getting impaire et passe in at 33s seems sensible

He wins at fairyhouse or aintree he's half that

He loses can't see them making him any bigger

The worry would be the run last time but he'd be 16s if he hadn't ran so flat at the DRF

 

[AaronLad]

I was just having a read through this thread and there's at least 3 nominations for the Ryanair, Majborough, fact to file and impaire et passe.
I think you could easily throw a couple more in to the mix. On this basis although a few prices might look fancy, the uncertainty of participation and that it could be mighty competitive make the Ryanair a race to leave for now imo.

I think guaranteed targets should be what we're looking for, especially at this early stage.
I think Teahupoo at his price should be very high in consideration.
We know it's his target, he's been 3rd, 1st and 2nd the previous 3 seasons at odds of 9/4, 5/4 and 7/4.
He's available now at 6/1.

I also think inothewayurthinking should be very strongly considered.
The way he has won on his 2 visits to Cheltenham he has looked top class.
Beating galopin des champs in such convincing fashion is very impressive.
I get the argument he could lose along the way and go out in price but surely we get him in now and if that happens we rub our hands together and get him in again.
Another that all being well will line up in the nominated race next march. Best price 5/1.

I also think strong consideration should be given to dinoblue who won this year's mares chase pretty comfortably, its hard to see her not coming back for another attempt but the possibility of breeding is always there with mares.
She's gone off favourite at the last 4 festivals, not out of the first 2 In her 3 chase runs there.
There's a couple that could potentially challenge her next season, but a couple of those will likely be novices and have other options. 4/1 best price.

And finally Marine nationale for the champion chase.
I don't think he's the best 2mile chaser around, but what I do think is at the prices on offer, with his cheltenham form and the doubts surrounding Sir gino he's value.
He'll be there to defend his crown all being well, im struggling to see who is opponents for the top 2mile races in ireland could be. Solness? quilixios? Majborough will surely step up in trip.
So I think he'll be the best of the Irish next year, and if like the last 2 seasons sir gino doesnt make it, he'll be alot shorter than the current 7/1 on offer.

 

[Eggs]

….i agree AaronLad, whilst it’s difficult to know definite targets this far out, we should at least be reasonably sure even if it’s a bit of guesswork. Inothewayurthinking and Marine National will surely be defending their crowns as long as they’re fit and well, might be worth getting them in early.

 

[Runragged]

I was just having a read through this thread and there's at least 3 nominations for the Ryanair, Majborough, fact to file and impaire et passe.
I think you could easily throw a couple more in to the mix. On this basis although a few prices might look fancy, the uncertainty of participation and that it could be mighty competitive make the Ryanair a race to leave for now imo.

I think guaranteed targets should be what we're looking for, especially at this early stage.
I think Teahupoo at his price should be very high in consideration.
We know it's his target, he's been 3rd, 1st and 2nd the previous 3 seasons at odds of 9/4, 5/4 and 7/4.
He's available now at 6/1.

I also think inothewayurthinking should be very strongly considered.
The way he has won on his 2 visits to Cheltenham he has looked top class.
Beating galopin des champs in such convincing fashion is very impressive.
I get the argument he could lose along the way and go out in price but surely we get him in now and if that happens we rub our hands together and get him in again.
Another that all being well will line up in the nominated race next march. Best price 5/1.

I also think strong consideration should be given to dinoblue who won this year's mares chase pretty comfortably, its hard to see her not coming back for another attempt but the possibility of breeding is always there with mares.
She's gone off favourite at the last 4 festivals, not out of the first 2 In her 3 chase runs there.
There's a couple that could potentially challenge her next season, but a couple of those will likely be novices and have other options. 4/1 best price.

And finally Marine nationale for the champion chase.
I don't think he's the best 2mile chaser around, but what I do think is at the prices on offer, with his cheltenham form and the doubts surrounding Sir gino he's value.
He'll be there to defend his crown all being well, im struggling to see who is opponents for the top 2mile races in ireland could be. Solness? quilixios? Majborough will surely step up in trip.
So I think he'll be the best of the Irish next year, and if like the last 2 seasons sir gino doesnt make it, he'll be alot shorter than the current 7/1 on offer.

Whilst I disagree on Teahupoo (I would rather be backing Rocky's Diamond or The Wallpark at this stage), I do agree with Marine Nationale. Sir Gino has missed the last two Festivals whilst Marine Nationale has rocked up twice and won twice (Admittedly missing last season). He was given a relatively steady campaign last year as the horse missed his novice chase season after an early injury. Don't think he will be given such a careful year next season. Barring Jonbon (Who may step up in trip?) who else is there to take him on? I don't see much coming from the Arkle ranks that can challenge barring considerable improvement and many already established look short of grade 1 Cheltenham class. I can see Marine Nationale being the staple to the Yankee and can throw three more in around him.

 

[Quevega]

I’d be fairly confident majborough will be aimed at the champion chase next year.
He’ll only be 6.
Id back him over anything else for the queen mother right now

 

[Quevega]

Jasmin de Vaux looks solid enough for the stayers also

and munny for the arkle.

 

[Eggs]

Jasmin de Vaux looks solid enough for the stayers also

and munny for the arkle.

….certainly thinking we may have teased 3 out;

Munny (Ark) 12-1; the last of 16s went yesterday when the trainer said he won’t run again this season and will be aimed at Arkle.
Marine National (CC) 7-1; surely returns to defend his crown.
Inothewayurthinking (GC) 5-1; Another you’d be certain will be back to defend his crown given he stays fit and well.

The BANC nominations seem strong;
Kitzbuhel 20-1, very popular on here. Didn’t run at Festival, has won his 2 hurdle races for Mullins over 2m, FJs convinced he’ll step up in trip over fences.
Wendigo 25-1, highlighted on here some months ago as a future staying chaser, had a particularly troubled passage in AB but still stayed on for 5th.
Derryhassen Paddy 33-1; that 33-1 is a bit of a stand-out with 365. Lightly raced, finished 3rd in AB he’s adored by his trainer, you’d be quite certain he’s heading this way.

Stayers;
JDV 14-1; Owner suggests he’s staying over hurdles, trainer mentioned novice chasing (cut with a couple of firms for BANC this morning). A few have highlighted him for the Stayers on here.

There’s nothing to stop us going early if we reach a consensus.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Where do we think Wodhooh will be targeted ?
She's one I'd love to get onside if I had a crystal ball...

 

[Eggs]

Where do we think Wodhooh will be targeted ?
She's one I'd love to get onside if I had a crystal ball...

…I’d be thinking with her being as low as 7-1 Mares Hurdle there’s little temptation in the risk/reward with uncertain target for a bet like this.

 

[robith]

I was just having a read through this thread and there's at least 3 nominations for the Ryanair, Majborough, fact to file and impaire et passe.
I think you could easily throw a couple more in to the mix. On this basis although a few prices might look fancy, the uncertainty of participation and that it could be mighty competitive make the Ryanair a race to leave for now imo.

I think guaranteed targets should be what we're looking for, especially at this early stage.
I think Teahupoo at his price should be very high in consideration.
We know it's his target, he's been 3rd, 1st and 2nd the previous 3 seasons at odds of 9/4, 5/4 and 7/4.
He's available now at 6/1.

I also think inothewayurthinking should be very strongly considered.
The way he has won on his 2 visits to Cheltenham he has looked top class.
Beating galopin des champs in such convincing fashion is very impressive.
I get the argument he could lose along the way and go out in price but surely we get him in now and if that happens we rub our hands together and get him in again.
Another that all being well will line up in the nominated race next march. Best price 5/1.

I also think strong consideration should be given to dinoblue who won this year's mares chase pretty comfortably, its hard to see her not coming back for another attempt but the possibility of breeding is always there with mares.
She's gone off favourite at the last 4 festivals, not out of the first 2 In her 3 chase runs there.
There's a couple that could potentially challenge her next season, but a couple of those will likely be novices and have other options. 4/1 best price.

And finally Marine nationale for the champion chase.
I don't think he's the best 2mile chaser around, but what I do think is at the prices on offer, with his cheltenham form and the doubts surrounding Sir gino he's value.
He'll be there to defend his crown all being well, im struggling to see who is opponents for the top 2mile races in ireland could be. Solness? quilixios? Majborough will surely step up in trip.
So I think he'll be the best of the Irish next year, and if like the last 2 seasons sir gino doesnt make it, he'll be alot shorter than the current 7/1 on offer.

agree with a lot of that

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Where do we think Wodhooh will be targeted ?
She's one I'd love to get onside if I had a crystal ball...

I think the stayers could be the right target, winners of the MP tend to be future stayers, dual winner at the new course too(mares being ran on the old course..)Teahupoo has shown he isn't unbeatable anywhere let alone round Cheltenham, he runs to a decent level but tends to need everything to drop right which currently sits at happening once every three starts, she's now rated 151 with her 7lbs she's one more good race away from going a proper open class route, also Lossiemouth would be tougher to beat round cheltenham off levels than anything currently in the staying division, I'll be asking someone who'd know when I catch up with them but I expect no decisions will be made until the summer, her Punchestown entry could give us a good pointer of Gordons intentions before then though.

 

[RufusFlynn]

With Wodhooh:

Just worth being in mind that the last Martin Pipe winner to follow up at next years festival was Don Poli (in what was the RSA) - back in 2014-15.


Given the uncertainty around target (I would be leaning towards the Mares myself) and the relatively short price at this stage, alongside the fact that very few handicap winners go on to repeat festival wins, let alone winning a graded race the following year (current Gold Cup champ excluded of course) - surely she is a wasted shot for a yankee at this stage? IMO - for all that she was a very easy winner.

 

[robith]

With Wodhooh:

Just worth being in mind that the last Martin Pipe winner to follow up at next years festival was Don Poli (in what was the RSA) - back in 2014-15.


Given the uncertainty around target (I would be leaning towards the Mares myself) and the relatively short price at this stage, alongside the fact that very few handicap winners go on to repeat festival wins, let alone winning a graded race the following year (current Gold Cup champ excluded of course) - surely she is a wasted shot for a yankee at this stage? IMO - for all that she was a very easy winner.

I'm in two minds cos you are right, but she was a fairly facile winner

However, you are right. We're a year out. Guaranteed routes need to be the relentless focus of the early yankees. Didn't we have Kopek for the middle distance race like 3 times last festival?

 

[Eggs]

….are folk generally ok with these 3 suggestions?;

Munny (Ark) 12-1
Marine (CC) 7-1
Inothewayurthinking (GC) 5-1*

if we’re in agreement and looking for one more I’d be very tempted with Derryhassen Paddy whilst that 33-1 with 365 is still there. Russell absolutely loves this horse, everything is geared to chasing yet he ran a very decent 3rd in AB for one so lightly raced. She certainly knows how to train a staying chaser.

The consensus could be he’s an unlikely winner?

*Inothewayurthinking not running in GN.

 

[EnvoiAlien]

She has 2 possible targets so couldn't be included in the yankee, I wasn't putting her forward for the bet, was mostly answering Ista with where I believe she'll end up