Many thanks to
Eggs for allowing me to select this months yankee.
I agree with the general sentiment that we need to be fairly positive about a horses destination. So that has helped slim down the options put forward. That does, unfortunately, mean that prices are a little slimmer. I've also avoided the races which historically don't form until later on in the season (Ryanair, Novice Hurdles) and those which could be subject to change (Mares Hurdle and Mares Chase).
First up, I think
Inothewayurthinkin - Gold Cup @ 5/1 has to go on in. First put forward by
darlojim and well supported by others. On RPR's he and Galopin Des Champs are the only horses to post 180+. At 7yo, he is young enough to eek out further improvement too. I think it is generally accepted that GDC wasn't at his best this year, but he still ran creditably and the distance back to Montys Star and Gentlemansgame underscores the magnitude of the performance. The way Cromwell is talking, I would be surprised if we saw him again this year so we are unlikely to get a better price between now and the start of next season.
The novices progressing in to open company don't light my fire this year whereby I think the winner will come from this years open company horses. Fact To File could come here, but the way he raced with the choke out at a fast pace over 2m4f doesn't lend itself to the Gold Cup Trip. Realistically, I think it's between Inothewayurthinkin and GDC again.
Next up,
Teahupoo - Stayers Hurdle @ 6/1. First put forward by
AaronLad. Another solid selection who's target is obvious. Whilst he doesn't have the ability of Inothewayurthinkin, he is competing in a significantly lesser division. He ran creditably this year despite conditions going against him. He's highly unlikely to run on better ground next year. Competition looks thin on the ground. Jasmin De Vaux and Ballyburn could potentially shake up the market, but I can't see Teahupoo being an e/w price on the day even if they do come this way. I mulled over Rockys Diamond who was put forward a couple of times. He is a great price and has scope to improve being a 5yo, but the worry is he goes chasing - and we want a runner.
Third is
William Munny - Arkle @ 12/1 first put up by
CJW Target confirmed by his trainer. The Arkle could have a few quality horses running in it, but it doesn't look like being the deepest division. History tells us that (normally) one of the better novice hurdlers wins the Arkle. And this chap is the second highest rated hurdler over the shorter trip. He has a real engine and looks a chaser too. I think Kopek Des Bordes was a good winner of the Supreme, but William Munny showed enough to convince me that he could reverse the form should he get a better break of the ball or take to fences better. I can't see Romeo reversing form with WIlliam Munny over fences. Lulamba offers another potential class angle in the race, but he will need to improve and 5yo's in open races ... The Yellow Clay could be interesting here, but he has four potential destinations and the Arkle would be 3rd or 4th favourite in that list. If Kopek Des Bordes was to stay hurdling, then this chap would be my favourite for the race.
The final selection is
Kitzbuhel - BANC @ 20/1 who was probably the most suggested horse in the thread. This looks a really deep division next year, but there isn't an obvious superstar. Final Demand is a worthy favourite, but he looks far from bullet proof, particularly if the ground were to come up G/S or better. Kitzbuhel looks all over a staying chaser, and the removal of the Golden Miller Chase makes it short odds on that this would be his long term target. Related to Al Boum Photo, he is bread to get the trip. I also like the fact that he didn't go to the festival this year. He's been brought along slowly.
Honourable mentions to State Man and Marine Nationale. State Man is the wrong price (16/1) but it does look a deep division. Marine Nationale is the only horse at the front of the market who will definitely run over 2m next year who doesn't have a significant injury concern. But, there is every chance that Sir Gino returns and that JP sends 1 or 2 very good darts so the 8/1 may well hold for a long while.
So the yankee is:
- Inothewayurthinkin - Gold Cup @ 5/1
- Teahupoo - Stayers Hurdle @ 6/1
- William Munny - Arkle @ 12/1
- Kitzbuhel - BANC @ 20/1
9701/1 best priced with Hills.
Cheers all.
