Lay of the Day - TEST RUN

[Kevloaf]

The Aim:
Make £50 a day (equivilant of £1500 a month, tax-free )


The Plan:
To find one horse a day to lay at an average of 11.0 (wiggle room of 3 points either way)


The Theory:
It sounds easier to back ten 1/10 shots than it does to find a 10/1 winner every day from 10 attempts.



The ideal races are:

• Not handicaps (horses ability too easily hidden)
• Not maidens (unraced horses are obvious to avoid)
• Group/Graded/Stakes/Listed (with more form and therefore less unknowns)

What I will need:

• Discipline (to stick to a max liability of £500 per bet)
• To still look for bad value at the price, rather than just the price and try and force the issue
• Enough races/opportunities (potentially not going to have enough races to make confident selections on daily)

What I hope for:

• 10 straight 'winning lays' to win £500. Thus creating the 'betting bank' and be playing with profit from that point onwards

Concerns:

• Losing streaks... depending on how many winning lays in a row I have, the betting bank will increase. However it could only take two or three losing selections in a row to wipe out an entire months worth.
• Forcing the issue (as I am looking for a very specific set of races, and a horse that is bad value between 8/1 and 12/1, I may end up forcing a bet whilst it's not there)

Trial period

• I am going to do a dry run for 10 days, to see how I would get on.

I very much welcome any thoughts, advice, comments on the plan and I'll post my 'Lay of the Day' each day with a little bit of reasoning.

 

[Kevloaf]

4/6/20 - Day 1 *trial*

15:55 - Newcastle - Pavillion Stakes (Group 3)

Dream Shot 8/1 (lay price 11.5)



No clear and obvious reason why he'd reverse the form with A'Ali (who is 2nd fav). The fav also looks to have a decent chance so given the shape of the market I'd chance him to lose. Scooby has also put up two selections in the race and neither are Dream Shot so that does no harm either.






Wish me luck :highly_amused:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Interesting way to go.

Certainly will look towards your results, and see how you fare, good luck :encouragement:

 

[Kevloaf]

Interesting way to go.

Certainly will look towards your results, and see how you fare, good luck :encouragement:

It's not going to replace my normal betting, and I've purposfullynot used points as this is a seperate test that isn't going to be relevant or relative for the time being.

I've picked £50 a day as it rougly works out at National Living Wage over a year, and I thought no matter what people do, or stake, they can relate to that at some point in their lives.



My wifes on furlough, if she loses her job I might suggest this to her rather than her take a low paid job whilst she looks for something else :highly_amused:

 

[jack1092]

Nice idea Kev- hoping your first lay is a stinger for you though. Think he's certainly overs anyway, can't really see how he isn't!

 

[Kevloaf]

Nice idea Kev- hoping your first lay is a stinger for you though. Think he's certainly overs anyway, can't really see how he isn't!

:highly_amused: I hope he's second for you

To be fair I haven't actually laid him, and I put more time in to the idea than the actual selection today..... but we will see

The 12/1 you have is better than the 8/1 now though regardless!

 

[jack1092]

:highly_amused: I hope he's second for you

To be fair I haven't actually laid him, and I put more time in to the idea than the actual selection today..... but we will see

The 12/1 you have is better than the 8/1 now though regardless!

Haha to be fair, i've backed the two, so we could both end up winning! You could be right laying DS, as he does have a habit of running on at the finish, and Tate has mentioned he's slightly quirky...but i'm hoping back to 6f will see him better. GL!

 

[Kevloaf]

There we go, both winners



I'll put up day 2's mythical lay tomorrow.

1 down, 9 to go and then we can hopefully start it 'for real'...


Probably too small a sample but got to start somewhere.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I know there is a well referenced study in recent years that indicated that the Betfair Exchange starting price was very close to the true chances of a horse winning. With that in mind you would want to be laying horses that would drift before the off to be statistically in with a chance of winning long term doing this. Other thought I have is why the specific price range you have identified?

 

[Kevloaf]

I know there is a well referenced study in recent years that indicated that the Betfair Exchange starting price was very close to the true chances of a horse winning. With that in mind you would want to be laying horses that would drift before the off to be statistically in with a chance of winning long term doing this. Other thought I have is why the specific price range you have identified?

Yes, I'm hoping that over time I can identify likely 'drifters' but don't want to bite off more than I can chew to start with.


With regards to the price range, it was because I don't want to be laying favourites, especially at around even money. Having to get that right over 50% of the time doesn't give enough margin for error.

I want to limit the amount of horses that would qualify as interesting to allow me to really focus on them....



It's a bit like when it's 'Super Saturday' on the flat and there are about 80 races a day, it's just way too much.... whereas if you study just one of the cards you invariably get better results.






If I was absolutely convinced a fav was poor value and not within the parameters I'd still lay it.... but I just want to narrow the search?

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Yes, I'm hoping that over time I can identify likely 'drifters' but don't want to bite off more than I can chew to start with.


With regards to the price range, it was because I don't want to be laying favourites, especially at around even money. Having to get that right over 50% of the time doesn't give enough margin for error.

I want to limit the amount of horses that would qualify as interesting to allow me to really focus on them....



It's a bit like when it's 'Super Saturday' on the flat and there are about 80 races a day, it's just way too much.... whereas if you study just one of the cards you invariably get better results.






If I was absolutely convinced a fav was poor value and not within the parameters I'd still lay it.... but I just want to narrow the search?

Sounds good and will be interesting to see how you get on. As you already highlight the real pain would be to go say 20 in a row then lose 2 on the bounce and be back to square one. I’m not sure I’d take that very well...haha

 

[Kevloaf]

(+£43.50) Day 1 - Lay @ 11.5

-----------------

Day 2 (5/6/20)

15:00 - Newmarket - Paradise Stakes

Dawaam 8/1 (Lay price 9.8)


Two wins were on the All Weather, never had a competitive run on the turf. Not mad keen on the jockey and although he did look good in his wins he's hopefully not good enough to be at this level yet.

Not blown away by either of the Godolphin pair but there are enough horses in this that would have a better chance than the selection that I'm happy to take the chance.

I did consider Escobar at 12.5 too as he'd be better suited to a big field handicap than this race but I'm feeling brave as it's not real money yet

 

[BigChaang]

Oh No ! < I just put Dawaam in my i.t.v. 7 !! :dejection::highly_amused:

 

[Kevloaf]

(+£43.50) Day 1 - Lay @ 11.5

-----------------

Day 2 (5/6/20)

15:00 - Newmarket - Paradise Stakes

Dawaam 8/1 (Lay price 9.8)


Two wins were on the All Weather, never had a competitive run on the turf. Not mad keen on the jockey and although he did look good in his wins he's hopefully not good enough to be at this level yet.

Not blown away by either of the Godolphin pair but there are enough horses in this that would have a better chance than the selection that I'm happy to take the chance.

I did consider Escobar at 12.5 too as he'd be better suited to a big field handicap than this race but I'm feeling brave as it's not real money yet

(+£43.50) Day 1 - Lay @ 11.5
(+£51.02) Day 2 - Lay @ 9.8

--------------------

I think he trailed in last, never looked like winning.
It is strange to watch a race with all your focus on one horse hoping it doesn't win.:stupid:

 

[jack1092]

Good start Kev. Looking forward to following this!

 

[Kevloaf]

(+£43.50) Day 1 - Lay @ 11.5
(+£51.02) Day 2 - Lay @ 9.8

--------------------

Day 3 (6/6/20)

14:40 - Newcastle - Sagaro Stakes (Group 3)

Nayef Road 9/1 (Lay price 10.5) - potential win of £47.52


It's his first run on the AW which I don't like. Whilst his peak form would put him in the mix, I fancy at least 3 in the market more than him, namely Withhold, Royal Line and Prince Of Arran. I think for Nayef Road to win he'd need to improve for the surface and I am hoping that doesn't happen when others are proven on the surface already.

 

[Quevega]

Why the test run Kev ?
I think it may be difficult to maintain in the long term.
But how you gonna feel if you get to the end of a successful test run of 10 ?

Surely the mindset would be that the 'wrong result' must be a step closer.
That's definitely how I'd feel. As surely the more consecutive successes means you're closer to the next failure. Statistically (luck wise) that is, taking out the element of skill and judgement.

 

[Kevloaf]

Why the test run Kev ?
I think it may be difficult to maintain in the long term.
But how you gonna feel if you get to the end of a successful test run of 10 ?

Surely the mindset would be that the 'wrong result' must be a step closer.
That's definitely how I'd feel. As surely the more consecutive successes means you're closer to the next failure. Statistically (luck wise) that is, taking out the element of skill and judgement.

Purely psychological. I want to know that I can do 10 in a row once. If I can do that, I can look to 'repeat' it which will create the £500 betting bank and then if I failed after that it'd have been with profit generated anyway.


If I can't select 10 good value lays in a row while the pressure is off, I'd not back myself to do it when the pressure is on.




Really, the more consecutive successes have no impact on the next. It's like the spinning of a roulette wheel. I'm hoping I can prove my skill/judgement is enough of an edge to eliminate the luck factor, and the luck is stacked in my favour backing the field versus one horse. Compared to 'backing' anyway.




If I do hit the 10, part of me will be a little but gutted I didn't just start straight away, but making it public and doing a disciplined 'trial' was so I don't get carried away. It's also to make sure there are enough opportunities over 10 days.... so I can see whether it's realistic or whether I'd need to change the approach at all to make it easier/safer.

 

[Quevega]

Really, the more consecutive successes have no impact on the next. It's like the spinning of a roulette wheel. I'm hoping I can prove my skill/judgement is enough of an edge to eliminate the luck factor, and the luck is stacked in my favour backing the field versus one horse. Compared to 'backing' anyway.

This is true, of course.
But the brain takes some convincing that if the wheel has spun 10 consecutive Blacks, that spinning a red is closer than it was when you started spinning.

All makes sense. And Good luck.
I think as the liability for each bet is £500. I'd remove the restriction/target on odds myself. There are probably more options available on a daily basis then, and your races can be narrowed down to an even more specialist level.

The overall target profit is £500, but the £50 per bet possibly will lend itself to an unneccesary narrowing down of choice.
In short I'd open it up to any price of horse. Just keep the liability the same.

But I'm sure you'll assess yourself after the first 10 days/bets

 

[Kevloaf]

This is true, of course.
But the brain takes some convincing that if the wheel has spun 10 consecutive Blacks, that spinning a red is closer than it was when you started spinning.

Yeah it certainly does but I'm lucky that I've had many a raging debate with my mates about this in casinos at the end of a drunken night out. When they get ANNOYED that it's "black again" and they feel unlucky. It's not unlucky, it's the same odds every single time. :highly_amused: I just don't like roulette at all though, pure blind luck when you know you are behind in a 50/50 is not smart. Trying to get an edge using probability is also flawed. Red Red Black Red. That's the system :witless:

All makes sense. And Good luck.
I think as the liability for each bet is £500. I'd remove the restriction/target on odds myself. There are probably more options available on a daily basis then, and your races can be narrowed down to an even more specialist level.

The overall target profit is £500, but the £50 per bet possibly will lend itself to an unneccesary narrowing down of choice.
In short I'd open it up to any price of horse. Just keep the liability the same.

But I'm sure you'll assess yourself after the first 10 days/bets

Yeah I have considered that and can already see me leaning that way. At the moment I just don't want to get to a point where I am anywhere near even money shots. The margin for error is so small there and I don't think I'll be good enough to have any edge over BSP at all to be honest.

Laying 2x 20/1 shots in the same race is a more likely route I'd go down.