Lay of the Day - TEST RUN

[Quevega]

Yeah it certainly does but I'm lucky that I've had many a raging debate with my mates about this in casinos at the end of a drunken night out. When they get ANNOYED that it's "black again" and they feel unlucky. It's not unlucky, it's the same odds every single time. :highly_amused: I just don't like roulette at all though, pure blind luck when you know you are behind in a 50/50 is not smart. Trying to get an edge using probability is also flawed. Red Red Black Red. That's the system :witless:



Yeah I have considered that and can already see me leaning that way. At the moment I just don't want to get to a point where I am anywhere near even money shots. The margin for error is so small there and I don't think I'll be good enough to have any edge over BSP at all to be honest.

Laying 2x 20/1 shots in the same race is a more likely route I'd go down.

I can see why you'd think that way, but it kind of goes against what we've talked about with the roulette odds.
A bad price is a bad price, even money or not.
Just the judgement in finding them.
That's why laying any price makes more sense as you've more chance of finding the stinkiest priced horse.
Where the actual odds are further from the true odds (in your opinion of course)

 

[Kevloaf]

I can see why you'd think that way, but it kind of goes against what we've talked about with the roulette odds.
A bad price is a bad price, even money or not.
Just the judgement in finding them.
That's why laying any price makes more sense as you've more chance of finding the stinkiest priced horse.
Where the actual odds are further from the true odds (in your opinion of course)

My point is it's a lot harder to find a bad price at evens. The closer to the front of the market you get, the more likely they are to be the right price (generally) - in graded/listed races anyway....



I don't think I'll have as much of an edge at the head of the market....


To be fair my starting point in every race when I am backing is 'can I get the favourite beat' .... so if that's yes I suppose I could look there... but again, I feel like it'll be harder to do consistantly.

 

[Old Vic]

Johnny Ward very keen to take on Pinatubo.

 

[Kevloaf]

Johnny Ward very keen to take on Pinatubo.

Braver man than I'd be. No chance I'd put that up as a lay.

 

[Kevloaf]

(+£43.50) Day 1 - Lay @ 11.5
(+£51.02) Day 2 - Lay @ 9.8

--------------------

Day 3 (6/6/20)

14:40 - Newcastle - Sagaro Stakes (Group 3)

Nayef Road 9/1 (Lay price 10.5) - potential win of £47.52


It's his first run on the AW which I don't like. Whilst his peak form would put him in the mix, I fancy at least 3 in the market more than him, namely Withhold, Royal Line and Prince Of Arran. I think for Nayef Road to win he'd need to improve for the surface and I am hoping that doesn't happen when others are proven on the surface already.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

:highly_amused:

Great GIF

That race was a nightmare for me back to reality!

 

[Old Vic]

Johnny in clover

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Really, the more consecutive successes have no impact on the next. It's like the spinning of a roulette wheel.
.

This is absolutely correct, but like Q is saying I have terrible habit of thinking about this during a day’s racing. While I don’t think it affects my bets it certainly affects my confidence levels. If say the first 3 favs have gone in and my main bet of the day happens to be the fav in the fourth psychologically I am resigned to my horse not winning. Similarly if it is the other way round I am likely to be bullish in the lead up to the fourth race. Silly I know but I just can’t help it

 

[Stormy Antarctic]

I’ve often wondered if place laying horses that are running in maidens/novices for the third time (obviously fishing for low handicap marks) would be profitable. I guess following certain types of trainers would make them easy to find, sir mark Prescott being a prime example. Only a thought though. I’ve never taken the time to do any studying on it.

 

[Kevloaf]

This is absolutely correct, but like Q is saying I have terrible habit of thinking about this during a day’s racing. While I don’t think it affects my bets it certainly affects my confidence levels. If say the first 3 favs have gone in and my main bet of the day happens to be the fav in the fourth psychologically I am resigned to my horse not winning. Similarly if it is the other way round I am likely to be bullish in the lead up to the fourth race. Silly I know but I just can’t help it

I think it's called subjective probability. You draw on your experience.
I don't think it's silly at all, and there is no way that I (or anyone) can avoid it - I just try to :highly_amused:

I’ve often wondered if place laying horses that are running in maidens/novices for the third time (obviously fishing for low handicap marks) would be profitable. I guess following certain types of trainers would make them easy to find, sir mark Prescott being a prime example. Only a thought though. I’ve never taken the time to do any studying on it.

Yeah that could be an interesting angle.... crack on

 

[Kevloaf]

I've woken up this morning feeling like I definitely don't have enough of an edge right now in my knowledge of previous seasons flat form, race reading or perception of value to make this work.


After any losing day I always try to take a break so I don't tilt or go chasing, so I'll park this for today at least.