King George 2021

[Craigy14]

Indo 5/2, Asterion 7/2, Clan 4/1, Chantry 11/2, Frodon 13/2, 14's Bar.

If that’s how the SP’ went (understand would be likely money for WPM’s horse) then a lot of folk have no clue in racing backing a very unreliable horse from 6’s into second fav. He may win but backing him at 6/1 isn’t a good bet, no chance.

6’s is embarrassing imo against what he’s facing. Clan has won 2 king George’s and will be primed for this, finished the season with 2 Grade 1 wins, Frodon won last years renewal and has won a grade 1 opener this season. Minella Indo is the current GC champion and had a nice season opener likely to improve a tonne from that. Asterion has absolutely nothing on paper that puts him in the mix of those 3 horses imo at the current prices.

I’d have Chantry House ahead of Asterion as well 100% imo. He did the UK festival double, beating AS along the way, Shan Blue would have given the form a nice boost since (Shan was winning half the track when coming down admittedly). Asterion has won 2 chases, fallen/unseated 3 times, in 8 starts. Chantry has won 5/6 chases including 2 Grade 1’s. People ‘think’ he’s made for the King George and that constitutes him being a 6/1 chance, no way for me, yes you could say he might’ve beaten Allaho the other day but factor in the unreliability he’s double digits lowest for me.

 

[Lobos]

Couldn't agree more Craigy. Punters do the oddest things . That's racing !

 

[Benjy23]

He'd be a pretty good place lay if he's getting down to that sort of price to be honest.

 

[Madmoose]

Strong on Chantry House here myself, I may even take the 40/1 this and GC double on 365

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm going to put up Tornado Flyer for the King George, currently priced up @ 50/1 with three main bookmakers.

I thought it was a very encouraging seasonal debut in the John Durkan at Punchestown. He stayed on nicely to finish 5th, suggesting a step up in trip is required. He has been tried once over 3m but I'll get on to that run in a bit.

I believe there are some key factors for Tornado Flyer to be seen to his best. First off, and as noted above, the step up in trip, he's been outpaced enough over intermediate trips to not be able to land a blow, but has, on occasions, and as per the John Durkan, stayed on well enough to suggest a step up to 3m should be given a shot. The main key thing with him, IMO, is going right handed, and although I wouldn't categorically say he can't go left handed, after all he has won two races doing so, I do feel his form right handed is better than his form when going left handed, so a trip to Kempton would be right up his street.

With regards to the one try he had over 3m, this was going left handed at Leopardstown, and it was his first try over 3m, so I can forgive him this one attempt, where he was soundly beaten. He is by Flemensfirth, so the trip should not pose a problem, though he may need a little cut in the ground to be seen to best effect, however he has performed well, and won some low class races, on better ground in the past.

I have absolutely no idea whether the plan is to bring him over for the race or not yet, but I feel he's a good E/W play at a big price, should be come over.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Joe Tizzard talking up the chances of Lostintranslation, if I’m honest I’ll admit to forgetting he was still in training and it would be some feat for him to claim a podium finish given the quality of the (likely) line up, 10/1 ? Can’t see too many rushing to snap that up…

 

[Garrison Savannah]

Almost every year this looks a good race in the build up - before the inevitable withdrawals. However, without wishing to make a fool of myself (again), it does look this season that most at the top of the market will run. Hope so anyway.

 

[jack1092]

I'm going to put up Tornado Flyer for the King George, currently priced up @ 50/1 with three main bookmakers.

I thought it was a very encouraging seasonal debut in the John Durkan at Punchestown. He stayed on nicely to finish 5th, suggesting a step up in trip is required. He has been tried once over 3m but I'll get on to that run in a bit.

I believe there are some key factors for Tornado Flyer to be seen to his best. First off, and as noted above, the step up in trip, he's been outpaced enough over intermediate trips to not be able to land a blow, but has, on occasions, and as per the John Durkan, stayed on well enough to suggest a step up to 3m should be given a shot. The main key thing with him, IMO, is going right handed, and although I wouldn't categorically say he can't go left handed, after all he has won two races doing so, I do feel his form right handed is better than his form when going left handed, so a trip to Kempton would be right up his street.

With regards to the one try he had over 3m, this was going left handed at Leopardstown, and it was his first try over 3m, so I can forgive him this one attempt, where he was soundly beaten. He is by Flemensfirth, so the trip should not pose a problem, though he may need a little cut in the ground to be seen to best effect, however he has performed well, and won some low class races, on better ground in the past.

I have absolutely no idea whether the plan is to bring him over for the race or not yet, but I feel he's a good E/W play at a big price, should be come over.

I like this, and i like his run the last day.

However, he's 50s with PPBF and they are standout along with Unibet....so that's a worry.

Also, not sure this is the best e/w race from the current "probable" field- you have like 5 at the front of the market that look really rock solid to me. Granted they won't all run their races, but it's very competitive.

 

[KickOnMyCockers]

You're of course right, Jack - it is off-putting that the Irish bookie has him at that price but clearly isn't a 50/1 shot if does travel over and any of those at the head of the market don't take their place. Happy to have a little play myself at the prices.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I like this, and i like his run the last day.

However, he's 50s with PPBF and they are standout along with Unibet....so that's a worry.

Yeah, I had noted this aswell, but would suggest they expect Asterion Forlonge to be Willies main hope for the race, but I'm not convinced, nor would I trust him to get round either, though the Kempton fences are usually a little more forgiving, so that may help him.

Also, not sure this is the best e/w race from the current "probable" field- you have like 5 at the front of the market that look really rock solid to me. Granted they won't all run their races, but it's very competitive.

I went through the market and also previous runnings of the race, and if the Irish battalion turn up that is expected then I think Frodon & Clan Des Obeaux will struggle massively. I think they've had it fairly easy the past 3 season myself. I would happily take the pair on, provided the Irish do actually turn up to the race.

Minella Indo will have every chance, dependent on how much timber he's lost since we last saw him, as he looked to be carrying a fair bit. Also the flat, quicker track of Kempton, will that suit as much?

Chantry House probably won't turn up if Nicky has anything to do with it :highly_amused:

The ones in behind have either shown poor form in the race previously, or not guaranteed to turn up, including Tornado Flyer in this group, hence the 50/1 I guess, but he's the one that stood out to me should he turn up, to have a decent E/W chance at a track & trip I think will suit him.

 

[That Horse]

I would happily take the pair on, provided the Irish do actually turn up to the race.

That's the thing though isn't it? Historically, they haven't turned up although it looks almost certain that Minella Indo is coming over this year.

I wouldn't back Frodon or Clan against any of the top Irish horses in the spring but it's different at this time of year imo. FWIW, Frodon did beat a race fit Galvin already in October. Plus, the Irish that have come over so far this season haven't really been beating the UK horses out of sight like they did back in March.

Fully expect that to resume once the festival comes round though.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

That's the thing though isn't it? Historically, they haven't turned up although it looks almost certain that Minella Indo is coming over this year.

It is the risk, yeah. I think the Irish trainers will be looking at routes to avoid their own horses, obviously Henry has both A Plus Tard & Minella Indo, Willie has absolutely loads too, although we know he doesn't mind running them against each other. I'll be surprised if Minella Indo is the only Irish horse to turn up to the race this season.

 

[jack1092]

It is the risk, yeah. I think the Irish trainers will be looking at routes to avoid their own horses, obviously Henry has both A Plus Tard & Minella Indo, Willie has absolutely loads too, although we know he doesn't mind running them against each other. I'll be surprised if Minella Indo is the only Irish horse to turn up to the race this season.

Same. I'd say with all Willies and Asterion being the quirkbag he is- he'll be there. Having fallen in the JD 3 or 4 out he arguably hadn't been asked for the max yet so should be fine for the turnaround unlike say, Allaho.

That Horse While he beat Galvin race fit, there's no doubt Nicholls was adamant Frodon would not be finding excuses for fitness.

I personally think Minella Indo is actually too big as he is now at 7/2. He does come with the poser over the track, but he'll race prominent and i'd Down Royal will have been a nice target to get the belly off him for this, then on to Cheltenham.

50/1 is big, i do like it.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I personally think Minella Indo is actually too big as he is now at 7/2. He does come with the poser over the track, but he'll race prominent and i'd Down Royal will have been a nice target to get the belly off him for this, then on to Cheltenham.

Yep, I agree with this.

I'm tempted to back him as well, to be honest.

 

[That Horse]

In a paywall RP article, Willie says,

"I think we're going to head in that direction [King George] with Asterion Forlonge. He was the only horse to be travelling better than Allaho when he fell three out in the John Durkan at Punchestown on his reappearance.
"It was obviously a long way from home and, while it's hard to say he would have won had he stood up, he was certainly travelling very well at the time.

"If he can capitalise on what was materialising into being a lovely return effort, he could have a solid chance in the King George, and we're happy to aim him for that."


Nothing said about his other horses for now.

 

[Lobos]

Yeeeeehaaaaaaa!!!

 

[Zachx02]

Very happy to be sitting on 25/1 slips for Asterion Forlonge, lets just hope he isnt a bad jumper around Kempton

 

[Lobos]

Asterion Forlonge and Tornado Flyer to be Mullins representatives in KG.

 

[Lobos]

Ground is pretty much Good all over now and very little rain forecast. Could be a very small field with some reliant on Soft ground. Most of those at the top of the market shouldn't be inconvenienced though.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Ground is pretty much Good all over now and very little rain forecast. Could be a very small field with some reliant on Soft ground. Most of those at the top of the market shouldn't be inconvenienced though.

Plenty of rain due Sat and Sun could be as much as 20mm, a few will probably need much of that to fall Sat/Sat night to allow their horses to line up…