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King George 2021

charlie said:
I think he'll be underestimated ante post and emerge into a really talented horse out of novice ranks.
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He's 162 rated so he'd need to lol.

What happened to him at Fairyhouse? Punchestown for me has to be taken with a pinch of salt surely, the form's hardly great.
 
jack1092 said:
He's 162 rated so he'd need to lol.

What happened to him at Fairyhouse? Punchestown for me has to be taken with a pinch of salt surely, the form's hardly great.
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He could easily find 10lbs+ improvement which would put him bang there.

Fairyhouse may have come too soon after Cheltenham. He posted an RPR of 169 at Punchestown taking the complete piss. Sure, he left little in behind but he won super well and its not like he disgraced himself in the Marsh.

I certainly wont be wading in because he is a bit of a nut job, but it wouldnt be a total surprise to see it come together for him
 
charlie said:
He could easily find 10lbs+ improvement which would put him bang there.

Fairyhouse may have come too soon after Cheltenham. He posted an RPR of 169 at Punchestown taking the complete piss. Sure, he left little in behind but he won super well and its not like he disgraced himself in the Marsh.

I certainly wont be wading in because he is a bit of a nut job, but it wouldnt be a total surprise to see it come together for him
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If FH came too soon then Punch arguably wouldn't have been much different, 10 days or whatever.

If they can sort between the ears with him there's a horse there (already a very good horse dont get me wrong). Just not sure he'll ever get rid of the quirks fully.


He's beaten 2 chase maidens in 2nd and 3rd and 2 behind that have flattered to deceive more often than not. I'd be surprised if his 169 RPR rating is accurate personally.
 
I was watching last week's Road to Cheltenham with Hislop and Walsh and they briefly put up a table showing the prices of the leading contenders for the King George VI Chase and the Cheltenham Gold Cup side by side and I was struck by how the ratio between the two prices varied:

M Indo 5/1, 6/1
C House 6/1, 12/1
E Allen 7/1, 8/1
Allaho 8/1, 16/1
R Pag 16/1, 40/1
E De Rom 16/1, 50/1
A De For 16/1, 25.1
AB Photo 20/1, 16/1

(The two Nicholls horses aren't quoted for The Gold Cup)

I wasn't sure whether this was because of current ideas about whether they will run or not; or how they are thought to be suited by each race.
I also thought that Al Boum should surely be a shorter price for the King George than the 3 horses above him in the list. (too old?)

Anyway it got me thinking about how the trends for the two races varies. Of course, course experience relates to the two different courses but most of the trends are similar as you'd expect for a Grade 1 staying chase: grade 1 form, experience over the course, distance (not too much), recent good form, official rating etc

There's a trend against Gold Cup horses having more than 3 previous season runs or running on heavy ground in the same season. Higher priced horses do marginally better in the Gold Cup.

But there is one glaring difference: previous winners have a much better record in the King George.
17 out of the last 40 KGs have been won by a previous winner but only 4 of the last 40 GCs - that's quite a difference.
Both Frodon and Clan Des Obeaux fall outside the favoured 6-8 age bracket though.
 
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Supermaster said:
M Indo 5/1, 6/1
C House 6/1, 12/1
E Allen 7/1, 8/1
Allaho 8/1, 16/1
R Pag 16/1, 40/1
E De Rom 16/1, 50/1
A De For 16/1, 25.1
AB Photo 20/1, 16/1
.
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The 40/1 Royal Pagaille was a massive eye opening price for me, sadly the the best price I could find was 25/1 but I’m still happy enough to play.
Venetia made comment today that if all goes well at Haydock then Kempton would be next, and if he was to line up he’d be nowhere near 25/1.

Thanks for highlighting…
 
Istabraq said:
The 40/1 Royal Pagaille was a massive eye opening price for me, sadly the the best price I could find was 25/1 but I’m still happy enough to play.
Venetia made comment today that if all goes well at Haydock then Kempton would be next, and if he was to line up he’d be nowhere near 25/1.

Thanks for highlighting…
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I think the second price is the GC price Ista, so Royal P 16/1 for King George. I think so anyway.
 
Istabraq said:
OK thanks mistake, easily confused these days...
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No worries Ista had to double check myself on PP when I said it :encouragement:

He has form round Kempton and I suppose he could still have improvement in him only being 7 yo. I definitely think the King George suits more than a Gold Cup at present so I like him at the price. Will all depend how much improvement he can show, ground is against him today as well.
 
Craigy14 said:
No worries Ista had to double check myself on PP when I said it :encouragement:

He has form round Kempton and I suppose he could still have improvement in him only being 7 yo. I definitely think the King George suits more than a Gold Cup at present so I like him at the price. Will all depend how much improvement he can show, ground is against him today as well.
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Everywhere I look pundits are taking his Gold Cup showing as his true form, this is from an interview with Joe Chambers:



Royale Pagaille has been absent since finishing a well-beaten sixth behind Minella Indo in the National Hunt Festival showpiece last March.

“He lost two shoes in the Gold Cup and he ripped the laminae from the inside of his left hind hoof,” revealed Joe Chambers, racing manager to Royale Pagaille’s owner Rich Ricci.

“He actually had to be horse-ambulanced from the paddock back up to the stable yard – he was on three legs.


He could be a big player in top staying races this season...
 
The difference in class between A Plus Tard and the British horses was stark on Saturday. I thought RP's jumping was falling apart towards the end. Imperial Aura was going ok but he fell before the race hotted up - does he stay 3m? Plus falling is not a plus. APT isn't running in the KG as he prefers LH according to the trainer.
 
Pp/Bf have cut minella indo to 11/4 for the king George

And gone standout 9/1 on envoi allen
 
Is Minella Indo a King George horse ?

As much as I love the horse and will still be my idea of the Gold Cup winner, I really can't see Kempton suiting.

For me Envoi is taylormade for a King George.

I'd love to see him take his chance and hopefully Allaho will turn up too. Would be some spectacle.
 
Hes always been a strong traveller and a plenty quick enough jumper so don't see why not

It just depends whether he can run near to his spring form in December

If he can he will win imo

But at this stage I'm not sure how likely that is

I was happy to take the 10s that was available, with that doubt 11/4 looks skinny this far out

I'm also on allaho too and think he has a cracking chance IF he can run to his spring form in December

I think they are the best two horses that are likely to turn up its just whether they can do it in December
 
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A big run from Asterion Forlonge in the John Durkan could see his price for this freefall. Entirely possible as he's won first time up every time. He's still relatively lightly raced with just 12 runs. He's 2/2 at Punchestown if you excuse his first fence fall v Envoi and he's much more comfortable going Right Handed.
 
Lobos said:
A big run from Asterion Forlonge in the John Durkan could see his price for this freefall. Entirely possible as he's won first time up every time. He's still relatively lightly raced with just 12 runs. He's 2/2 at Punchestown if you excuse his first fence fall v Envoi and he's much more comfortable going Right Handed.
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It's hard to say what would have happened but in my opinion Asterion would have won that. All aboard the Forlonge train for the King George :)
 
Brooksie said:
It's hard to say what would have happened but in my opinion Asterion would have won that. All aboard the Forlonge train for the King George :)
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He would have gone mighty close. The KG looks his Gold Cup to me.
 
Thompson has said Envoi won't go to the KG after that and Allaho might not either now
 
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