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King George 2021

Istabraq said:
Plenty of rain due Sat and Sun could be as much as 20mm, a few will probably need much of that to fall Sat/Sat night to allow their horses to line up…
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Looks like they are going to avoid any rain now from the latest forecast.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Hope this is correct Ista, wouldn't mind a bit of rain for Tornado :)
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Needed for Minella Indo as well. Could see him being pulled if they don't get much.
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Why?

His 3 grade 1 wins have come on good to soft, yielding and good to soft
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Not at tracks as tight/flat as Kempton though. Think he'll need genuine Soft ground to be competitive around there. It's currently 90% Good with just s few Good/Soft patches. There is potentially up to 15mm if rain forecast. I suspect he'll need all of that.
 
Just watched the met office national forecast - looks like some light rain today and some heavier rain on Christmas Eve but not for long periods. maybe a slight change to GS in places or possibly GS but no softer than that I would think. What are the odds? :lemo:
 
Can see myself having a proper bet Minella Info here.
Always a danger he gets taken out of his comfort zone if they tear off at a good lick which they can do in this, but HDB isn’t stupid and if he thinks the race will suit then I’m not arguing with him.
He rarely goes home empty handed these days does HDB.
Chance there’s an extra place available come Sunday but the 100/30 now looks OK…
 
Minella Indo wearing cheek pieces for the first time. Odd decision that. What's he done wrong without them ??
 
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Supermaster said:
Just watched the met office national forecast - looks like some light rain today and some heavier rain on Christmas Eve but not for long periods. maybe a slight change to GS in places or possibly GS but no softer than that I would think. What are the odds? :lemo:
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Less rain than first thought but they hope it'll be Good/Soft on the day which shouldn't be an issue for anyone.
 
I've been looking over this race including watching a few replays of previous runs. Similar to Opatcho I think that grade one form, form over 3mile+ and course form are key factors here. This singles out three horses: Clan des Obeaux, Frodon and Lostintranslation, except LiT has been pulled up in the race twice = once may be due to the Tizzard out of form year but the other?

Watching some of these races I noticed that CDO's jumping can be pretty sketchy (being kind) - this seemed to be why he was out the back for much of last year's race. He jumped well at Aintree last spring but even Punchestown LTO was iffy at times. CDO wins these races despite his jumping because he stays on well in the closing stages He gave the first fence an almighty belt in the 2018 Betfair (4th there before winning his first KG).You had virtually the same runners in those two 2018 races - finishing in a totally different order- so much for form! CDO didn't beat much in 2019 when Cyrname proved to be a non stayer as Frodon did for 3m1f+ in the 2020 Gold Cup.

There doesn't seem to be a problem with staying for 3m at Kempton for Frodon. He jumps well with occasional differences of opinion between horse and jockey about going short or long. A horse that tends to be underrated and overpriced imo - because of the jockey or coming up through handicaps? His poor run at Aintree last autumn can be put down to the missing fences. Native River being beaten by Lake View Lad indicates a freak result.

So of the two Nicholls fancied horses I prefer the higher priced Frodon as being the better jumper and has a season run. Saint Calvados seemed to be a non stayer last year - never won over 3m or longer.

But established stars do get beat eventually and 7-8 is the best age range. It's odd to call Minella Indo up and coming but MI has only 4 chase wins from 9 runs and has never run at Kempton. Clearly the Gold Cup win is the best form here. MI has never run on good ground but handles GS well. He looks a better jumper than Clan Des Obeaux except for making a snall number of unexpected bad errors - falling in the Savills when under no real pressure and belting the 2nd last in the Irish GC - again seeming to have a clear view of the fence.

I don't understand the fuss about Asterion Forlonge - never run over 3m, never won a Grade 1 chase and an iffy jumper - the hype seems to be based on who the trainer is.

On the other hand Chantry House makes more appeal as a newcomer with excellent Grade One form over the distance at Aintree (no run at Kempton though) and so far has jumped solidly in his chases. Lack of experience at this level is a negative but if not this year then maybe next year.

I think Mister Fisher is better than his price but there are doubts about staying the trip and jumping. Has the ability to win a grade one imo

Tornado Flyer could well benefit from the step up in trip running on well in the Ryanair but will be be outpaced at the back and left with too much to do in the short straight: like Waiting Patiently last year?

So I see this being fought out by Frodon and Minella Indo with Lostintranslation as the best e/w value.
Selection: Frodon.
 
Supermaster said:
I don't understand the fuss about Asterion Forlonge - never run over 3m, never won a Grade 1 chase and an iffy jumper - the hype seems to be based on who the trainer is.
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I'm going to be bold here, I think Asterion Forlonge will travel well but find nothing absolutely off the bridle. I know there are a few sitting on decent 20/1+ AP bets on him, so fair play there but I cant see it happening. For a horse that has a few F's next to his name aswell, it go around a place like Kempton. Not for me


Supermaster said:
So I see this being fought out by Frodon and Minella Indo with Lostintranslation as the best e/w value.
Selection: Frodon.
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I'm keeping a close eye on this rain. It goes from 10mm of rain to as much as 25mm.
If there was no rain I'd be all over Frodon. If soft dominates the going then I can see Minella winning this. Henry has become the number of trainer in the 3 mile division. Wasn't fair off Frodon on his season re-appearance where Frodon had it easy up front, I'd take Ruby's word about how round MI looked. The going will be critical for MI, the more rain the better his chance


Not keen on Chantry House for this but will be keeping an eye on how he finishing. Expecting him to come off the bridle but stay on into 4th or 3rd. One to watch to confirm his Gold Cup chances
 
hmmmmmm just saw the card, and Minella Indo wears cheekpieces

Not sure whether this move is a positive or negative.

I'm in too minds now...

Positive - Henry wants to give him a little spark to get him going early on, and this is just a added small piece just to help him along

Negative - Henry knows MI needs to go forward, and is worried. If he knew MI had the pace then surely he wouldnt try pieces on him.

Personally, I dont like seeing heargear like cheekpieces and visors going onto Grade 1 horses. Do you make an exception for MI as it's not like he's on the downward and this is a desperate attempt to spark him up to perform.

I think I have been trying to fit MI into this race, when I've been saying it all along, back horses that will love the track or have proven form there

Good to soft in the description, no worse. Frodon wins
 
I’d maybe reconsider Minella Indo’s going preference being soft Opatcho.
 
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Anyone have a solid idea on Saint Calvados’ prep this year?

He had a disrupted one last season didn’t he? Just thinking how well he ran and that he can be very good fresh and on soft - I quite fancy him to run a mighty race BUT don’t know how much about how Paul Nichols has had a clean run with him.
 
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Al Ferof said:
Anyone have a solid idea on Saint Calvados’ prep this year?

He had a disrupted one last season didn’t he? Just thinking how well he ran and that he can be very good fresh and on soft - I quite fancy him to run a mighty race BUT don’t know how much about how Paul Nichols has had a clean run with him.
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Was originally being targeted for Ascot in November I understand, but didn't get there as he came in a bit later than the others after the obligatory wind op.
 
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Will probably come back to bite me but just can't see what others see in Chantry House for this
 
Chantry House into favourite this morning. Some move.
 
Bonjers said:
Chantry House into favourite this morning. Some move.
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Wowsers. Didn't see that coming at all ! Not for me though. Still think Asterion will go off close to favourite.
 
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