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J.L.T Novices Chase 2019

Kevloaf said:
So La Bague Au Roi isn't there?!

Does anyone have access?
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Think she's 146p - master rating
so weight adjustments for race conditions have to be added or taken away.
basically she's 153p in the real world
 
boopa said:
There's nothing about the race against Jetz that suggests they were running for a mark.

Winter Escape beat 145 rated Jetz 15L giving 7lbs. Hardline beat Jetz 26L. DDT was well held by Jetz. DDT hasn't magically improved going into a handicap he's just run against vastly inferior animals.

Hardline is just a better horse. He has barely had a tap yet.
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No, but won handicap off 133 after that then 143 after that and is now rated 151.
But I get what you're saying about distances beat etc, but it's not always that simple, as you'll know.
And he might not like getting tapped.he definitely didn't when he was hurdling.
Irish handicapper has DDt 151, Hardline 150.
But I can see your POV
There's better than these two I reckon, but I like them both, and they both travel and jump well and have gained good experience. Which gives them a chance in graded company if things fall for them.
 
Hardline runs in the Flogas. God that looks a hot race.
 
boopa said:
Hardline runs in the Flogas. God that looks a hot race.
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surprised at that, he's barely ever gone beyond 2 miles, apart from last time (which may be his best form I suppose) but the flogas is full of stayers. He'll probably get a tap in that race though.
Where is gordon saying all this anyway ??
 
I'm surprised too he's their best option over 2m at least if he got outpaced they could step up.

It's been on RTV today.
 
Flogas will be the race of the season arguably better than anything we'll see at Cheltenham.

Delta Work
La Bague Au Roi
Chriss Dream
Mortal
Winter Escape
Hardline
 
boopa said:
I'm surprised too he's their best option over 2m at least if he got outpaced they could step up.

It's been on RTV today.
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Just to expand on that - GE suggested that Mengli Khan was his best hope over 2 miles and that he felt he underperformed over Christmas but 'has since come back to himself'. Said that he regarded Le Richebourg as the one to beat and Joseph said they were surprised he won so easily the last day but thought he had improved for the drop in trip. Sounds like they are both Arkle bound depending how things pan out at DRF
 
delsie777 said:
Just to expand on that - GE suggested that Mengli Khan was his best hope over 2 miles and that he felt he underperformed over Christmas but 'has since come back to himself'. Said that he regarded Le Richebourg as the one to beat and Joseph said they were surprised he won so easily the last day but thought he had improved for the drop in trip. Sounds like they are both Arkle bound depending how things pan out at DRF
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Also mentioned as an ex-flat, they can be in and out over fences...
 
Personally speaking, i think Leopardstown will turn out to be a track he doesn't do so well at....given his two runs there.
 
Irish Arkle will cut up but nothing is standing out as an each way bet. LR will be vulnerable if the rain does come...
 
boopa said:
Hardline runs in the Flogas. God that looks a hot race.
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Pleased with that boopa as I've always felt the JLT would be right up his street. La Bague won't run will she??? Trainer taking on a big race?? Don't mind if Hardline/Mortal don't win the Flogas, just as long as they put in a really nice performance. Nasty stat for the flogas & Cheltenham I think?.
 
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doctorwu said:
Pleased with that boopa as I've always felt the JLT would be right up his street. La Bague won't run will he??? Trainer taking on a big race?? Don't mind if Hardline/Mortal don't win the Flogas, just as long as they put in a really nice performance. Nasty stat for the flogas & Cheltenham I think?.
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She will run and she's the one to beat imo.

I'll lay Delta Work if he's as short as he is now.
 
Flogas & Cheltenham nasty stat is for the RSA
 
boopa said:
She will run and she's the one to beat imo.

I'll lay Delta Work if he's as short as he is now.
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That because you're confident the UK novices are ahead of the Irish?
 
I'm confident 5/4 is too short in that field.
 
Is Jerrysback a decent poke for this at 25/1 NRNB motorway before he runs tomorrow?

The race he runs in at Haydock has been won by:

2018 - Testify won - Came 11th in the Close Brothers when an 11/1 shot.
2017 - Waiting Pateintly won (didn't go to Cheltenham) but 2nd was Politilogue by 1L, who came 4th in the JLT
2016 - Bristol De Mai won (went on to finish 2nd to Black Hercules in the JLT)
2015 - Wakanda won - Winner didn't go to Cheltenham
2014 - Taquin Du Seuil (1st in the JLT)


So two 'handicap' winners, have been Wakanda and Testify, but Jerrysback is already rated 148, so no chance of a run in the Close Brothers.

Waiting Patiently splits opinion, but I'd have fancied him in the JLT that year, he's around a 6/1 shot for the Ryanair this year.

Taquin De Seuil won and Bristol De Mai came a good 2nd, that's pretty decent.

If he doesn't win tomorrow, there's absolutely no way they throw him in the race, as JP already has Defi Du Seuil / Le Richebourg and Winter Escape that've thrown their hats into the ring.

Looks a bit of a bet to nothing to me!

1 pt e/w Jerrysback 25/1
 
Kevloaf said:
Is Jerrysback a decent poke for this at 25/1 NRNB motorway before he runs tomorrow?

The race he runs in at Haydock has been won by:

2018 - Testify won - Came 11th in the Close Brothers when an 11/1 shot.
2017 - Waiting Pateintly won (didn't go to Cheltenham) but 2nd was Politilogue by 1L, who came 4th in the JLT
2016 - Bristol De Mai won (went on to finish 2nd to Black Hercules in the JLT)
2015 - Wakanda won - Winner didn't go to Cheltenham
2014 - Taquin Du Seuil (1st in the JLT)


So two 'handicap' winners, have been Wakanda and Testify, but Jerrysback is already rated 148, so no chance of a run in the Close Brothers.

Waiting Patiently splits opinion, but I'd have fancied him in the JLT that year, he's around a 6/1 shot for the Ryanair this year.

Taquin De Seuil won and Bristol De Mai came a good 2nd, that's pretty decent.

If he doesn't win tomorrow, there's absolutely no way they throw him in the race, as JP already has Defi Du Seuil / Le Richebourg and Winter Escape that've thrown their hats into the ring.

Looks a bit of a bet to nothing to me!

1 pt e/w Jerrysback 25/1
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I’ve topped up on Vinndication in anticipation of Jerrysback franking the form Kev. Jerrysback is definitely a player here!
 
Considering what Willie Mullins can do with Mares.
Camelia de Cotte interests me for this. Entered up in both grade ones at Dublin festival but also in the valuable mares novice chase on Sunday at Thurles. Willie's only entry in the Flogas.
With him being light in the novice chase ranks this year I can see this running here maybe.

But
No ones priced her up yet.
I'm going to ask B365,
Can anyone put her on the exchange with betfair
and ask Sky for a NRNB price,
or W Hill for any race ?
as I cannot do that.
Thanks in advance.
 
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