J.L.T Novices Chase 2019

[Quevega]

Joleg and COD

I'm not crabbing VDR chances just the logic with the jumping and pace etc.

FYI
average speed footpad in arkle = 29.75mph
average speed Shattered Love in JLT = 28.94mph

That 0.81 mph difference ain't going to matter is it, but a not fluid jumper has to jump more fences over the 2m 4f trip ??

 

[Kevloaf]

How many strides is that per second please big fella thanks

 

[Quevega]

How many strides is that per second please big fella thanks

:highly_amused:
that's beyond my threshold, but average speed is an easy one.

Kind of demonstrates why trips are not as important as the efficient use of energy, and pace judgement in the conditions, and when horses are closely matched how small things can make the difference.

 

[The King Pimm]

What are your thoughts on Kildisarts chances? He won at Cheltenham a fortnight ago and Munir & Souede have a very good record in the JLT having had three 2nds and one 3rd Place in the 3 years. Kildisart is currently 25/1??

 

[Kevloaf]

What are your thoughts on Kildisarts chances? He won at Cheltenham a fortnight ago and Munir & Souede have a very good record in the JLT having had three 2nds and one 3rd Place in the 3 years. Kildisart is currently 25/1??

I'd worry that he's not connections first choice. I feel like they looked at the race and decoded Master Dino from Frame was their best chance, which means the UK contingent weren't up to scratch in terms of the win.

He's a progressive looking type and I won'the knock a 25/1 poke but he's probably got no realistic win hope

 

[Quevega]

What are your thoughts on Kildisarts chances? He won at Cheltenham a fortnight ago and Munir & Souede have a very good record in the JLT having had three 2nds and one 3rd Place in the 3 years. Kildisart is currently 25/1??

I backed him a few weeks back at 33s each way with sky, but I'm not expecting a winner. Probably just a bit short.

 

[thorne365]

:highly_amused:
that's beyond my threshold, but average speed is an easy one.

Kind of demonstrates why trips are not as important as the efficient use of energy, and pace judgement in the conditions, and when horses are closely matched how small things can make the difference.

Are those average speeds just distance / time? I agree with efficiency being paramount but average speed (esp if for the whole race) on its own doesnt tell us that at all.

 

[Scooby91]

Dalila de seuil would be intersting here if she dosent follow the mares program. There's mares races either side. So frought with danger

 

[Quevega]

Are those average speeds just distance / time? I agree with efficiency being paramount but average speed (esp if for the whole race) on its own doesnt tell us that at all.

Might need to expand on that
I don’t follow

 

[darlojim]

Am i on my own in thinking LiT can reverse form with DDS? He wasnt the most fluent at the last 2 LTO and was gaining slowly on DDS up the hill, if he can put in a clear round like he did at cheltenham first time round the stiff finish will get his head back in front im sure of it.

 

[Scooby91]

Am i on my own in thinking LiT can reverse form with DDS? He wasnt the most fluent at the last 2 LTO and was gaining slowly on DDS up the hill, if he can put in a clear round like he did at cheltenham first time round the stiff finish will get his head back in front im sure of it.

Of course he can. Defi got his ground last time. The better the ground the more chance lostintranslatiin has and vice versa. If they both have a clear round, it will be a good battle either way. Still all to play for with both.

 

[boopa]

It will come down to how well they jump. LIT is a low efficient jumper but he can make the odd mistake. DDS jumps big not as efficient. You'd imagine Barry will hold onto him for as long as he can and do him for toe but a small mistake when it matters and LIT will be hard to peg back.

 

[Kevloaf]

With Real Steel cut to 12/1 with PP/BF/Sly today, knowing there have been people interviewing connections at the yard, I've had another 1 pt e/w at 25/1 with the 1 firm still at that price.

If it ends up as the Mullins first string I think that'll be a good each way price, and they pushed Camila De Cotte back out, and left Voix Du Reve unchanged... so I'm taking that as a sign.

I see he's been debated in the ante-post thread (been working my way UP not DOWN) ...

Tis is purely a play to try and get ahead of the market for this race - as I dhave no strong opinion on the front 2 being better than each other, and the Irish horses record is worth taking note of even if it's not particuarly relevant this year....

 

[delsie777]

Taken another 'Elliott flyer' and gone in for Champagne Classic at 40/1 eachway. As stated on another thread, I can see Hardline going to the 4 Miler and am therefore willing to gamble on CC coming here - at the price. Ran a great race on the comeback - just tired late but was tanking for most of the race and I think the intermediate trip will suit. Another who could end up single figures if he turns up in a small field.

Interesting that the 40/1 still holding up but Laddys now 16/1 without NRNB

 

[jack1092]

COD'S QUOTE
Thoroughly exposed over 2m, yeah, for the top level, he's 150 in Ireland, he won't be well handicapped in the UK. needs to go up in trip now.

Real Steel has beat nothing. 125 & 132 rated animals, not even close to the level required. Paloma Blue won't get near the Arkle so even if he was upsides it isn't like he got within 4 3/4 lengths of Le Richebourg, like VDR has.

I wouldn't fancy Paloma Blue for the Arkle, but he has a big engine. Personally think PB was going to hold him that day, but it's still good form. His last run he beat them 10Ls easy, so it's a very fair performance no? On RPRs, he's only 4 off VDR's best run...

Adding into that, Ruby will ride him...he's going to be backed just on the back of that.

 

[The King Pimm]

If this race was tomorrow who do you think is realistically going to be lining up? I reckon they’ll be 8-9 runners in it this year

 

[The King Pimm]

From the ante post list I think it will be DDS, LiT, Kalas, Mr Whip, Real S, VDR, MK & Kildi and possibly Hardline & Jetz. I can’t see any other horses getting involved because of the top 2 in the market and the distance.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

COD'S QUOTE
Thoroughly exposed over 2m, yeah, for the top level, he's 150 in Ireland, he won't be well handicapped in the UK. needs to go up in trip now.

Real Steel has beat nothing. 125 & 132 rated animals, not even close to the level required. Paloma Blue won't get near the Arkle so even if he was upsides it isn't like he got within 4 3/4 lengths of Le Richebourg, like VDR has.

I wouldn't fancy Paloma Blue for the Arkle, but he has a big engine. Personally think PB was going to hold him that day, but it's still good form. His last run he beat them 10Ls easy, so it's a very fair performance no? On RPRs, he's only 4 off VDR's best run...

Adding into that, Ruby will ride him...he's going to be backed just on the back of that.

I'm not dead against Real Steel, I really liked the horse last season, although he never came quite as good as I thought he was going to be.

I currently have the top 2 in the betting covered at bigger prices than they are, as well as VDR, who I have been on from day 1, I am contemplating adding RS to the list as he is still 20/1 and that can be boosted too, but first I want to re-watch his 2 chase runs.

 

[thistlecracker]

Is Mr Whipped going to turn up here ?

Not sure on Kalashnikov coming here, hard to tell with hardline and MK - both haven’t looked great lately

Also could through champagne classic potentially ?

 

[Scooby91]

Is Mr Whipped going to turn up here ?

Not sure on Kalashnikov coming here, hard to tell with hardline and MK - both haven’t looked great lately

Also could through champagne classic potentially ?

Mr whipped.
No. If he makes it to chelt will be the 4 miler. If not then Aintree