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J.L.T Novices Chase 2019

Might not be too bad. I wouldn't say write off that run from claimantakinforgan but 2 miles from the front is the opposite of what he wants he was never comfortable going that gallop.

give him a chance over 2 1/2 held up for a turn of foot, there will be no excuses from me in those circumstances.
 
Looking at the market

Black Op 10/1
Getabird 12/1 (not quoed with PP/WH/Lad etc)
Samcro 12/1 (?!) already hurdling!
Lalor 14/1 (arkle) and Flawless Escape (in 1 place) 14/1
Summerville Boy 16/1 - hurdling!
Messire Des Obeaux 16/1 (still quoted, out?!)
Faugheen 16/1 - already declared staying hurdling
Next Destination - 16/1 - surely the staying races based on the Ballymore last year?
Kalashnikov 16/1 - I see 365 trimmed him to 11/1 (hope yet?)
Topofthegame 20/1 - I have him down for the RSa but not beyond the realms he'd come here... but too short to risk
Vision Des Flos 20/1 - not without hope and I do actually have 2 pts win any race, but an Arkle horse at this stage?
On The Blind Side 20/1 - Might have another look at that with 365 considering the cash out possibility but not sold.
We Have A Dream 20/1 - what on earth?!
20/1 for Gowiththeflow, Cracking Smart and Bapaume can't see any running?
Le Richebourg 20/1 - Possibly?
La Bague Au Roi 20/1 - I've knocked her previously (maybe in this thread) but having got this far down perhaps that was a bit quick to do! A bold front running display she wouldn't struggle against many I've mentioned above so far?
Voix Du Reve 25/1 - The worry would be they've mentioned the Arkle now... a decent case by CoD earlier in the thread
Lil Rockerfeller 25/1 - I'd fancy him more here than the RSA but wouldn't have him on my mind now.
CLaimantakinforgan 25/1 - Short as 14s with PP/BFSB - mentioned above though, looks to be a little lacking in ability.
Ok Corral 25/1 - Another I have already backed but any race - I'd say more likely to be over 4m than 2m4f though
Santini - 25/1 - something would need to have gone wrong for him to be running over shorter so no way you'd back him here before seeing him run. His hurdle runs wouldn't allow you to believe he wants this trip.
Lostintranslation 25/1 - mentioned in previous post, on at 22s any race and will keep an eye on him NTO.
Melon 25/1 - is going for a CH again.
Laurina 25/1 - Quoted at 20/1 with PP... staggered.
Jenkins 33/1 - Not good enough to win out of handicap company (barely good enough for that ha)
Discorama 33/1 - Wants further than this...?
Vinndication 33/1 - Best I've seen so far
Count Meribel 33/1 - won a race with a decent roll of honour last time but was a disappointing winner for me


Something has to win it?! Surprised Cilaos Emery isn't quoted anywhere though
 
Had a couple of points E/W on Vinndication last week at 33s with Bet365, my first antepost E/W. In addition to really taking a liking to the horse same as you Kev as I am getting some info indirectly from one of the owners I’m pretty confident of hearing of a change in target, skipping of the Festival entirely or dare I say it injury, a good time before Bet365 do. Will of course update on hear as soon as I hear anything in that regard. Fingers crossed he keeps performing in the meantime. He’s likely to be out again this month.
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Had a couple of points E/W on Vinndication last week at 33s with Bet365, my first antepost E/W. In addition to really taking a liking to the horse same as you Kev as I am getting some info indirectly from one of the owners I’m pretty confident of hearing of a change in target, skipping of the Festival entirely or dare I say it injury, a good time before Bet365 do. Will of course update on hear as soon as I hear anything in that regard. Fingers crossed he keeps performing in the meantime. He’s likely to be out again this month.
Click to expand...

Excellent, that will be very much appreciated.
 
Love Vinndication myself Kev/RC, followed him last year and I think he could be the one to give us a very good run for our money this year.
 
On Vinndication @ 25's any race. Slightly worried they will avoid Cheltenham all together but we'll see what happens.
 
Kevloaf said:
Looking at the market


Voix Du Reve 25/1 - The worry would be they've mentioned the Arkle now... a decent case by CoD earlier in the thread



Something has to win it?! Surprised Cilaos Emery isn't quoted anywhere though
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My concern is the Arkle too Kev, however I am hoping both Getabird/CE take to the 2m route well and could persuade connections to go for this race with VDR.

On CE, I got a price requested from PP for both Getabird & CE for this race, they offered 20/1 CE & 12/1 Getabird, but only using dial-a-bet and not offering it up on their website.
 
Much like others have alluded, everytime I look at this race I can't help but feel there is a huge bit of value about but I can't be confident as to what that is yet. Only 2 I have covered that may come here is lostintranslation for any race @ 22s & Black Op 13s, however much like Kev I'm not too keen on the Black Op bet at present. Vinndication & OTBS are probably the only 2 at the moment catching my eye, but still I still have concerns around vinndications likeliness to line-up at Chelts and whether OTBS is actually back and firing and even his target.
 
Why would Vinndication not run? Owners were keen last season. Bailey pulled him out because he thought he was too immature. I've taken the chance at 33/1.
 
boopa said:
Why would Vinndication not run? Owners were keen last season. Bailey pulled him out because he thought he was too immature. I've taken the chance at 33/1.
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I was a big fan of this horse last year and totally cheesed off with Bailey doing a Ruth Jefferson. I don't think the owners will stand for a no-show this season if he's good enough.
 
doctorwu said:
I was a big fan of this horse last year and totally cheesed off with Bailey doing a Ruth Jefferson. I don't think the owners will stand for a no-show this season if he's good enough.
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He got injured.
 
"He hasn't had a setback. He's just a bit weak and immature and I just felt taking him to Cheltenham would be a bit tough on him at this stage of his career,"
 
boopa said:
"He hasn't had a setback. He's just a bit weak and immature and I just felt taking him to Cheltenham would be a bit tough on him at this stage of his career,"
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Fair enough, my memory failing me.
 
I'm considering taking a chance on bags groove at 36/1 for this.
I'm not too worried about what anyone thinks of the horse and I know he's in deep Friday.
But iv noticed he hasn't ran at Cheltenham to date.

Does anyone know any reason that he wouldn't go there?
Any preference for right handed tracks?
 
Scooby91 said:
I'm considering taking a chance on bags groove at 36/1 for this.
I'm not too worried about what anyone thinks of the horse and I know he's in deep Friday.
But iv noticed he hasn't ran at Cheltenham to date.

Does anyone know any reason that he wouldn't go there?
Any preference for right handed tracks?
Click to expand...

Could be wrong Scooby but i have a funny feeling he was entered for a bumper there during the Open meeting and was pulled really late.
 
Folski said:
Could be wrong Scooby but i have a funny feeling he was entered for a bumper there during the Open meeting and was pulled really late.
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Seem to remember that myself folski. Was very well backed on the day I think
 
Scooby91 said:
I'm considering taking a chance on bags groove at 36/1 for this.
I'm not too worried about what anyone thinks of the horse and I know he's in deep Friday.
But iv noticed he hasn't ran at Cheltenham to date.

Does anyone know any reason that he wouldn't go there?
Any preference for right handed tracks?
Click to expand...

I already have him backed at 33/1. Seems to be a really improving horse, and it looks certain this will be his race. I don't think there is any reason he won't run myself. I think good ground is absolutely key to him though, and I just have a feeling we will be getting more soft ground Festivals than good going forward.
 
Le Richebourg is on the radar for this. Want bigger than 20/1 though.
 
Ground conditions will dictate where the exciting Vinndication will make his second start over fences.

The Kim Bailey-trained five-year-old won a Ludlow bumper and each of his three starts over hurdles last season, completing his hat-trick in the Listed Sidney Banks Memorial Novices’ Hurdle at Huntingdon in February.

After sidestepping the spring festivals, Vinndication made his eagerly-awaited chasing debut at Carlisle earlier this month and maintained his unbeaten record with an accomplished display.

Bailey is keen to step his charge up in class – but only when there is some cut in the ground.

He said: “We are just waiting for the soft ground with him and he won’t be running until we get it.

“We were lucky at Carlisle that it rained and that is the ground he wants.

“I’m not going to rush him as he is only a baby.

“The Grade Two race at Ascot just before Christmas is a race that I would be interested in. That is very much a possibility.”
 
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